Posts for 'Cable Networks'

Among the many partnership announcements at CES this week, there are a number worth highlighting. Today I focus on the following three:

Viacom syndication - Viacom announced syndication deals for MTV Networks' stable of content with five leading broadband video sites: Dailymotion, GoFish, Imeem, MeeVee and Veoh. As those of you who have been following my previous posts know, I believe syndication is a critical engine in driving the advertising business model, which itself is the key to broadband video succeeding. As a result, I follow these syndication deals closely.

I've previously been critical of MTVN which appeared reluctant about syndicating its content when it launched its DailyShow.com destination site. However, with its recent deal with AOL, and now these five deals, it appears that MTVN does in fact believe syndication is the way to go. As one of the biggest cable network groups, MTVN is a key barometer for other networks' moves, so I view this as a real positive for the market.

Panasonic/Google - In this deal, Google and Matsushita announced that YouTube videos and Picasa photos would be directly accessible on new model Panasonic HDTVs launching in Q2 '08. Ordinarily I wouldn't be too excited about a deal like this, a permutation of which we've seen with other TV makers such as Sony.

Yet this one rises in potential importance because YouTube is not just the most popular video site - with 40% of all video traffic - but because Google is determined to turn YouTube into a platform for legitimate content distribution. This was underscored by the Sony mini-sode deal also announced this week, and the many partnerships YouTube has already struck with premium content providers. If successful (and there are many if's to be sure), YouTube would be far more than a scraggly collection of UGC. So, marry a broad-based premium video aggregator to HDTVs and you could see a new device/content model emerge.

BitTorrent device deals Netgear and D-Link - In a less publicized move, BitTorrent announced expanded deals with Netgear and D-Link covering a range of home networking products, with an emphasis on HD distribution. BitTorrent, which has been steadily legitimizing itself from its P2P file-sharing roots, has launched an aggressive SDK program called BitTorrent Device Partners, intended to permeate the market with its client software. BitTorrent also integrates easy access to its digital download store with these partners as well.

While I'm not very bullish about the market potential of bridge devices from companies like Netgear and D-Link, I do believe that P2P distribution has a real role to play in content distribution, especially for heavy HD files. I continue to see P2P as more of a "peer assist" play. To the extent that BitTorrent can continue getting its software into multiple devices, it gains validation and strengthens its potential to be a meaningful partner in the larger content distribution ecosystem.

Share your thoughts on these deals, and suggest others you think are noteworthy from CES!

In his CES keynote today, Comcast CEO Brian Roberts will outline several Comcast's initiatives (under the umbrella "Project Infinity") to stay competitive in the fast-changing video arena.

These include:

"Wideband"- New "wideband" broadband technology which allows much faster downloads (this is impressive, though was previously displayed at '07 National Cable Show). Wideband is aimed at blunting criticism that telcos' fiber networks have more capacity and faster speeds.

HD expansion - Plans for a 10-fold increase in the number of HD movies available in its VOD library to 3,000, with at least 6,000 total titles, including SD programming, eventually available. This is all meant to offset the widely held view that satellite and telco have surpassed cable in current HD offerings, a key value prop to millions of Americans now bringing home shiny new HD TV sets.

Fancast - Comcast's video portal will include 3,000 hours of streaming TV content, from NBC, Fox, CBS and others. These moves will help bring Fancast to parity with other syndicated partners of the networks which are themselves trying to proliferate their programs everywhere. Fancast will also allows remote scheduling of DVRs (both Comcast's and TiVo's), a feature that has been widely available at sites like TiVo.com and Yahoo for years now.

All of these actions are intended to help restore Comcast's reputation as the leading provider of entertainment programming, amid the swirl of changes that have enveloped the company. Despite its formidable size, Comcast is fighting competitive fires on virtually every front: fierce multichannel competition from satellite and telcos, rising expectations of HD content, consumer behavior shifts to broadband video consumption (premium and UGC) and place-shifting/time-shifting/device-shifting. The list goes on. Amid these changes, and with a slowing of the American economy, Wall Street has punished Comcast's stock price, cutting it in half in the last year.

While I applaud today's announcements, there is still one big strategic piece missing which Comcast has yet to comprehensively address: what are its plans to allow subscribers using its digital set-top boxes to seamlessly watch broadband video content as they do broadcast and cable programs?

As many of you know, I have been on a "broadband-to-the-TV" jag recently (see here, here and here) analyzing different options and their potential, or lack thereof. I continue to maintain that incumbents with boxes already in the home - mainly cable, satellite, telcos - are best-positioned to bridge the current divide between broadband and TV.

A breakthrough value proposition for Comcast would be allowing its subscribers to gain easy access on their TVs to YouTube, Break.com, Metacafe, NYTimes.com and all the others broadband sites that have surged in popularity. In theory, Comcast and other cable operators have always been about providing more video choices to subscribers. But the caveat has been those choices are only offered when Comcast makes a deal to carry these new channels. With broadband it's a wide open world. Any video provider - deal or no deal would gain access. This "openness" is a fundamental paradigm change for Comcast and other "walled garden" loyalists.

Surmounting this change to its business and cultural model are in fact Comcast's #1 strategic challenge. How to effectively respond to customers' broadband desires, while maintaining a robust economic and competitive model? When Brian Roberts, and others in the cable industry are finally ready to address the question of how they'll integrate broadband into their TV-based user experience, that will be a keynote well worth watching.

Microsoft grabbed the early PR spotlight at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), now underway in Las Vegas, announcing a variety of deals across the broadband video spectrum. The deals, announced by Bill Gates in his traditional night 1 keynote, reinforce Microsoft's intentions to play multiple roles in what Gates calls the "first true Digital Decade."

Here's a look at Microsoft's deals and why they matter:

NBCU 2008 Olympics on MSN, using Silverlight

Microsoft and NBC, which has the broadcast rights to the '08 Summer Games from Beijing, announced that MSN would be the exclusive partner for NBCOlympics.com including thousands of hours of live video coverage, and that Silverlight, which is Microsoft's "Flash-killer", would be used. As I mentioned in my "6 Predictions for 2008", the '08 games are going to be the biggest broadband video event yet. The deal gains MSN lots of traffic and Silverlight lots of exposure and downloads, not to mention serious validation as a live streaming platform if it executes well.

ABC/Disney and MGM content on XBox LIVE

In a further move to bolster the premium-quality content available in XBox LIVE (the content offering that accompanies XBox 360), Microsoft announced that both ABC/Disney and MGM would now be providing both SD and HD content. These moves bring XBox LIVE's catalog closer to parity with iTunes, while keeping up the competition with Amazon Unbox and other stores. Separately, Microsoft said that XBox racked up 17.7 million units sold during the '07 holiday season.(correction, Microsoft press release misstated this number. Holiday sales were actually 4.3 million units, bringing cumulative units sold to date to 17.7 million, thx Karl)

XBox users have been remarkable active purchasers and downloaders using XBox LIVE, and previous briefings I've conducted with XBox executives suggest that the initiative has been particularly successful with HD. Since Xbox is purchased primarily as a gaming platform, it serves as a great Trojan horse opportunity for Microsoft to gain broadband access to the TV. Meanwhile, XBox LIVE has served as the deal unit for Zune's library as well, so these moves are important to watch as they benefit Microsoft's efforts to dislodge iPod from its perch as the leading digital media player. Only disappointment here is no ad-supported counterpart was announced for ABC programs, leaving AOL as ABC's only announced broadband syndication partner, as best I can tell.

BT and XBox 360 Integration

Microsoft leveraged Xbox 360 for another convergence play, announcing with BT that the company's "BT Vision" IPTV service would be available for XBox 360 owners as an integrated service offering. This means that no separate set-top box would be required for BT Vision subs. Though the box won't roll out until mid '08, this concept has compelling upside for both sides and could be a nice blueprint for future IPTV deals. It eliminates set-top capex for BT, while providing strong marketing benefits to both parties, helping drive broadband/TV convergence on the back of the popular XBox gaming console.

Showtime, TNT and CNN with new apps on Mediaroom, Samsung supporting Extender

Elsewhere, Microsoft announced that Showtime, TNT and CNN would be creating new apps for Microsoft's Mediaroom IPTV platform, which it says is now installed on 1M set-tops globally. And lastly, that Samsung will support Extender for Windows Media Center, which means that HD content can be sent over wired or wireless-N networks from PC to TV. Extender hasn't caught on yet, but Microsoft is continuing to push it as a bridge device. I've yet to test it, but have that on my list of to-do's.

Taken together, these announcements from Microsoft show the company's vast resources allow it to play a role in all aspects of the broadband era - software, devices, services, content, gaming, etc. Less pronounced in these deals was the company's recently added online advertising prowess, which will soon be applied to broadband video as well. Stay tuned for news on this front as '08 unfolds.

Happy New Year and welcome to 2008!

With many of you taking last week off, a quick review of what you might have missed is in order:

1. iTunes-Fox download-to-rent movie deal rumors

The FT (reg. required) reported that Apple and Fox are close to announcing a deal under which Fox movies would be available for download-to-rent on iTunes. This would be a deviation from Apple's policy of download-to-own only. Call me a skeptic, but while some analysts think this deal is a big breakthrough, for me it's more of a ho-hum, for at least the following reasons.

Download-to-rent offerings have been around for a while (e.g. Movielink, CinemaNow, Amazon Unbox, etc.) and none have been grand slams. Admittedly none have enabled playback on an iPod. Yet, while many think iPod ubiquity is a killer advantage for iTunes rentals I disagree. It's one thing to watch a 30 or maybe a 60 minute TV show, but watching a 2 hour movie on an iPod? That's only appealing for a tiny minority of iPod owners. Further, while the rumored $2.99 or so price point is attractive, download-to-rent movies will come with the same cumbersome business rules (e.g. 24 hour viewing, window limitations, finite device sharing, etc.) that cause significant customer inconvenience. And DVDs, available for rental or purchase still offer superior portability and flexibility to any download model. Movie downloads' time will come, just not yet.

2. Wal-Mart Folds its Video Download Store

And speaking of download challenges, Wal-Mart decided to unceremoniously close its video download store less than a year since its launch. While it pointed its finger at its vendor HP, which decided to discontinue support for the technology underlying the Wal-Mart store, there are certainly other white label platform alternatives available if Wal-Mart had conviction about the download store's potential. It clearly didn't and so it folded its tent. More evidence of the challenges facing paid downloads.

3. YouTube's Top 2007 Videos Announced

Meanwhile over in YouTube land, the hits keep coming. YouTube released its top 10 list and the year's most popular video, with almost 23 million views, was "Battle at Kruger", which shows the fight to save a baby water buffalo from a group of lions and a crocodile. It's fascinating if you haven't seen it. Other top videos on the list were "Chocolate Rain", "Obama Girl" and "Leave Britney Alone", among others. If nothing else, this diverse group of videos shows that UGC is alive and well.

4. Queen Elizabeth and Roger Clemens Seek Out YouTube

And UGC wasn't for pure amateurs either. YouTube's reach was once again recognized as 2 celebrities, Queen Elizabeth and Roger Clemens posted videos serving their individual purposes. In a first for the 81 year-old queen, she posted her popular Christmas message on YouTube, augmenting its traditional broadcast. The Royal Channel - "The Official Channel of the British Monarchy" - also launched on YouTube.

Clemens, who's been fingered in baseball's steroid controversy, saw fit to post his proclamation of innocence on YouTube. Clemens is adamant in his own defense, and clearly believes that reaching out to fans with video instead of the usual press release is more compelling.

Trivia question: whose video do you think drew more views?

Answer: It's not even close: 741,000 for the queen vs. 274,000 for Clemens.

5. MTV Delivers 1.2 Billion Streams in '07

MTV self-reported that MTV.com, VH1.com and CMT.com delivered more than 1.2 billion video streams in '07, an increase of 30% vs. '06. It also reported the top 30 music videos it streamed, and number 1 was Gimme More by Britney Spears. Broadband is offering MTV an opportunity to return to its brand roots as the go-to destination for music videos even as more and more of the on-air experience is dominated by non-music video fare. As I wrote a couple months ago, music videos are becoming a sought-after new revenue stream for labels and aggregators. We'll see more emphasis on music videos in '08.

I continue to be impressed with Showtime's innovative use of broadband video to increase fan loyalty while adding new value to their programs and bolstering their brand image.

The latest example is a mini-site built for its "Dexter" season finale featuring an exclusive video of the 3 executive producers chatting about the finale and the program's story lines, with comments from various actors interspersed. The video premiered after last Sunday night's finale and is paired with a chat capability powered by Meebo, allowing rabid fans to interact with each other.

I caught up with Rob Hayes, SVP of Digital Media at Showtime and his colleagues Ken Todd and Michael Kuritzky to learn more about their motivation and how the mini-site has performed. It sounds like a resounding success. Video views are running 5 times greater than any one clip offered on the Showtime web site and the chat room has generated tens of thousands of users. There's also a sweepstakes on the site, which requires an email address to sign up. Rob reports that these sign-ups have increased Showtime's email list by 30% alone.

Showtime's motivation was to forge a deeper connection between fans and the program by providing ongoing interaction. So while there's no direct monetization of the mini-site, Rob said next time around, they could easily insert pre-rolls or overlays. And that means that Showtime, a stalwart premium programmer, would be leveraging broadband to create a new advertising revenue stream.

All of this demonstrates how this relatively modest video initiative is at the center of generating multiple rewards. It provides new value for fans. A basis around which to interact. Email addresses to use for ongoing communications. A new monetization path. Lessons learned for how to succeed in a multi-platform environment. An enhanced brand image. And the list goes on. Kudos to Showtime for continuing to be an innovator and showing others that broadband success comes in all shapes and sizes.

I was very happy to see news today of MTVN striking a big video syndication deal for its multiple networks' content with AOL Video.

Recently I praised Comedy Central's launch of TheDailyShow.com, but I took it to task for what appeared to be a destination-centric strategy, which was further supported by some executives' remarks. In this age of syndication, I thought that was a wrong-headed approach. Coupled with Viacom's misguided lawsuit against Google/YouTube, it felt like further evidence that MTVN was falling out of step with key broadband opportunities.

Today's news shows renewed hope that this may not be the case. I know these deals don't get done in a day, but I'd really like to see more syndication momentum from MTVN (and other content providers for that matter) to spread its content far and wide. Broadband Internet users don't expect to have to go to destination sites to get their favorite videos, they want them accessible where they already frequently visit. Hulu and CBS, to name two content providers that are solidly focused on syndication understand this, as do many others.

Somebody needs to seriously clue in Kevin Martin, the chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, who has somehow gotten it into his head that America's cable TV industry needs to be burdened by all kinds of new regulations, despite the fact that competition is coming at the industry from every direction imaginable.

On the probability that you don't think too much about the FCC's actions, nor what they might mean to you, I have a reminder for you: when America's top communications regulator seeks to drive the industry that is America's #1 provider of broadband Internet service into a regulatory ditch, that's a problem for anyone who works in the media, entertainment, telecommunications and technology industries. Mr. Martin's cockeyed plans threaten to do this.

First, a quick recap. In the last several weeks Mr. Martin has sought to use hand-selected (and highly questionable) data to resurrect an arcane FCC prerogative known as the "70/70" rule. It is not worth reviewing what this rule is or whether or not it applies. What is important to know is that Mr. Martin has sought to use this rule to introduce regulations forcing cable companies to submit to federal arbitration to resolve carriage disputes with cable networks and to reduce the prices of certain leased access channels by upwards of 75%. Lingering in the background are further regulations, such as forcing "a la carte" unbundling of cable channels for unfettered consumer choice.

Last week wiser heads prevailed with the other FCC commissioners, many members of Congress and the White House intervening to check-mate Mr. Martin's plans. In fact, so perturbed by Mr. Martin's recent actions is the House Energy and Commerce Committee chairman John Dingell that has opened an investigation into Mr. Martin's handling of the FCC's affairs.

Now, in retreat, Mr. Martin has come up with a new regulation capping any one cable operator's U.S. coverage at 30%. This is particularly targeted at Comcast, which, with 27% coverage, is just a whisker away from hitting the proposed cap.

In criticizing Mr. Martin, let me make clear that I'm no cable apologist nor am I a regulatory libertarian, against all forms of government intervention. I worked in the cable industry from 1990-1998 and know the good, the bad and the ugly of the industry quite well. The government has intervened in the past to correct legitimate market failures caused by clear industry bad actors. But those days are past. Now the cable industry is fighting for its life against the triple threat of satellite, telco and broadband "over the top" competition.

So how is it possible that Mr. Martin has so completely "missed the memo" that America's consumer communications services - video, broadband Internet access and voice - are more competitive today than ever, and that re-regulation is completely wrong-headed? And that technology is enabling a wealth of new services that are causing traditionally distinct industries to compete against one another, with the ultimate winner being consumers? And that real, skilled, high-paying, American jobs which are tied to the innovative media, entertainment, technology and communications markets he oversees will certainly be adversely affected by these onerous new regulations he is proposing?

Of course, I cannot get inside Mr. Martin's head to explain his actions. All I can guess is that somehow he arrogantly believes that Washington's bureaucracy is better suited to sort out the hyper-competition and innovation sweeping these industries than are the free markets and myriad technologies being introduced. How profoundly incorrect that belief is. Last time I checked Mr. Martin's bio, he personally has exactly ZERO day-to-day business operating experience, so maybe someone can remind me what his particular expertise is in these matters? As if all this isn't enough, don't forget about how reckless it is for a regulator to mess around with one of the few remaining vibrant pockets of the American economy.

Building B is major league stealthy company with an audacious vision for how consumers will access video content in the future. If it succeeds current multichannel video service providers (namely cable and satellite providers) will feel the brunt.

Building B has a blue chip executive team and pantheon of accomplished investors and advisors. It made headlines a few months ago when it announced a $17.5M funding round led by Morgenthaler Ventures, OmniCapital and Index Ventures.

Last week I had a briefing with Buno Pati, CEO/Co-founder and Phil Wiser (Chairman/President/Co-founder). They are both highly-experienced and successful technology executives who are also quite PR savvy. They know how to stay on message and close to their stealthy script. I needed to use my "virtual crowbar" persistently to try to pry a few new morsels of information out of them. From what I learned, it's a pretty cool story. Following is what I learned about what the company.

• TV must be the center of the consumer video experience, and today's service must be redefined
• Access to broadcast content is critical for success
• On demand, high def is in, linear, standard def is out
• Open access to robust wireless networks will be prevalent
• Advertising will be key value driver in the future
• Price of storage is going to virtually zero;

Given all this, in Buno's words, "Building B's opportunity is to unify, simplify and deliver a video experience to consumers at a more palatable price." This simple sounding statement belies an excruciatingly tall order.

The company is creating a next generation set top box of sorts that will deliver the gamut of video: TV, movies and broadband. Buno and Phil don't see their box as comparable to ones from say Akimbo, Vudu or Apple TV. These are really broadband-only augments, whereas Building B aspires to be a full-on substitute for cable or satellite. Their box will be able to access content through both wired and wireless delivery infrastructures. One engineering challenge is to match content with the optimal delivery network. So for example, one-to-many broadcast networks might be delivered over wireless while niche and interactive content would use broadband.

But Building B doesn't see a model selling the box at retail (though Phil concedes this might be a secondary outlet). Others have tried and failed at retail. Rather, its go-to-market strategy contemplates partnering with service providers like telcos and ISPs which want or need to be in the video business, but don't have the stomach or cash to upgrade their networks to do so.

Building B plans to develop a video entertainment service offering incorporating its box which can be made available turnkey to partners. These partners could include smaller telcos, particularly in rural areas, which have traditionally stapled on a satellite offering to fill out their triple play bundle. Or they could be larger telcos like AT&T or Verizon, who might augment their fiber rollouts with Building B's approach. Or they could be broadband ISPs, portals and others who aspire to be in the video business.

A key hurdle for Building B is assembling a fully competitive video lineup to what today video providers offer. This is no easy feat. Cable programmers in particular are reluctant to make advantageous deals with new distributors for fear of antagonizing existing cable and satellite affiliates. Yet Buno feels confident that Building B will gain access to major cable networks' fare, on demand, and on deal terms that are both economic to the company and non-disruptive to these networks' current arrangements. Accomplishing these deals alone would be noteworthy.

Lastly, Building B envisions delivering a personalized and easy-to-access service. Buno speaks of having a "dumbed down approach" aimed at satisfying only primary consumer needs and routines. Given its emphasis on HD, this is the part of the Building B vision that must necessitate a colossal hard drive in the box to cache content for ready access. Indeed, Buno said the company is "betting heavily that the price of storage is going to zero." If this assumption is off the bill of materials on storage alone could bust the box's budget.

Listening to Building B's vision, it's hard not to get enthusiastic about the world it seeks to create. As a consumer it would be thrilling. Yet the technology landscape is littered with ambitious would-be contenders whose aspirations foundered when faced with real-world engineering, marketing and business model challenges. Building B is simultaneously climbing tall mountains in multiple directions. If it succeeds, it will become a big-time disruptor of today's business models. It's going to be fun to watch it try.

And for Brotherhood, a program set in Providence, Rhode Island, they landed a cardstacker to create the state's capitol building out of 22,000 cards. Posted on YouTube 3 weeks ago, it's generated 350,000+ views.

For Showtime, and for any other premium content providers, broadband's ability to expose potential viewers to their shows is huge. Doing so with novel approaches like the ones above continue to demonstrate how broadband opens up a whole new creative palette for marketing and programming teams. More evidence that traditional marketing equations are changing.

However, a bigger picture question that Dailyshow.com's launch raises is how these direct-to-consumer initiatives work vis-a-vis third-party distribution deals. With media companies newly empowered to engage directly with their audiences using the Internet and broadband, many analysts have predicted the result will be diminishing relevance of third-party aggregators, including everyone from Comcast to Yahoo to Joost to you name 'em.

It's pretty apparent that MTVN/Comedy Central is coming down on the side of heavily emphasizing direct-to-consumer as its broadband video strategy when you combine Viacom's ongoing lawsuit against Google/YouTube, MTVN EVP Erik Flannigan's comment ("People should be reacting to 'The Daily Show' on its own site...God bless them for doing it everywhere else, but this should be the epicenter of it") and a company spokesman's comment ("that a few selected clips could become available on sites through syndication deals").

Count me among those who think this is both the wrong approach and one that will ultimately under-optimize the value of the Daily Show and other franchises in the broadband era. Quite simply, building out a strong direct-to-consumer presence like Dailyshow.com is NOT an either/or decision relative to also developing strong third-party distribution relationships.

In fact, the reality is that strong third-party distribution is essential in the Internet era, because Internet usage is both highly distributed among millions of web sites and also concentrated at a few large portals. Media companies' goal should be to proliferate their content (under the right deals of course) into all the nooks and crannies of the Internet while also striking deals with big portals to maximize exposure, usage and ad revenue.

But don't think distributors get a free ride in the Internet era. They need to prove they can leverage their audience devotion and traffic to drive value for content providers. Those that do will succeed. Proof of this is already emerging. One senior broadband executive recently told me that over 80% of his traffic comes from YouTube and other distribution partners, with his own site's traffic in the minority.

Not aggressively pursuing third-party distribution, as it appears is MTVN's plan, in essence requires that users reorient their behavior to come solely to one uber destination site like Dailyshow.com. To me this smacks of classic traditional media thinking where consumer convenience or preference gets short shrift in the name of what's supposedly "best" for the brand. My guess is if you asked Jon Stewart off the record what his preference is, he'd likely say, "make my stuff available everywhere!"

So kudos to the folks behind Dailyshow.com. But don't let your good works end now. Go out and find the best third-party distributors you can and let them help you extend the Daily Show franchise even further.

The past two days have witnessed two very significant cable network-related transactions. First, Discovery announced its acquisition of HowStuffWorks for $250 million, its largest acquisition ever. And second, Scripps announced that it would separate itself into two companies, with its marquee networks, HGTV and Food Network, finally being pried free from the E. W. Scripps's traditional newspaper business.

I interpret these announcements as continued recognition by major cable networks that their futures lie squarely in the interactive and broadband video areas. These networks - and others - are laying the groundwork for an evolution from sole dependence on their traditional business model. That model has been a monster success over the years, built on ever-expanding distribution through cable and other multichannel platforms and annual increases in monthly affiliate fees.

With the advent of the Internet and broadband, the fragmentation of audiences, the proliferation of content startups and the strengthening of online advertising models, all cable networks realize that embracing interactive/broadband opportunities is critical to their future success.

Discovery's acquisition of HSW gives it a trove of broad and deep online content, some developed by HSW and some supplied by third parties, which will now be available to Discovery's multiple properties. In one fell swoop, Discovery gains scale and expertise, which must now be delicately integrated into its current on-air and online brands. If the integration of HSW's content is a success, it will become a template for other deals.

Meanwhile, the Scripps split up follows that of Belo, another lagging newspaper company. The standalone entity, Scripps Networks Interactive, will have a growth focus leveraging strong brands in some of the best lifestyle categories (food, home, luxury, etc.). With its own currency to do deals, I wouldn't be surprised to see Scripps ramp up its acquisition activity as it bolsters its position across all these categories (in fact CEO Ken Lowe said as much in the analyst call). Scripps has been a real leader among cable programmers in building out broadband extensions to its cable networks and I would expect to see that activity grow, accompanied by distribution deals with online distributors which have strong reach.

While the Discovery and Scripps deals are the latest evidence that the traditional cable programming world is undergoing significant change, I expect we'll see plenty more similar moves in the year ahead.

(Note while both Discovery and Scripps are clients, these are my opinions only and no confidential information has been relied upon)

For now, there seem to be happy faces all around the cable industry regarding these online premieres. Cable networks argue that online generates upfront buzz leading to higher awareness and ratings for on air. This in turn builds value in multichannel subscription services. This was the point that Bruce Campbell, Discovery's president of digital media made at the recent CTAM NY panel I moderated. Of course, networks are doing the right thing following audiences online, all the while continuing to proclaim that their traditional affiliates (cable and satellite operators) are their most important customers.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I doubt all these happy faces will prevail for long. My guess is that at some point next year the lights are going to go on in the cable operator community that the portals and other new distributors are getting access to programs that operators' monthly affiliate fees pay for in the first place. Of course gone are the days of cable exclusivity, but if and when operators flex their muscles and express their change of heart about online premieres, my bet is they'll stop.

Operators should know that, at some point, the law of "there's only 24 hours in a day" kicks in - so if someone caught the premiere online, they don't actually need to tune in for the on air debut. And of course, do cable operators really want to allow viewers to grow accustomed to seeing high-quality long form programming online and/or through portals?

I think we'll see lots more of this activity until the cable operators call "foul". In the meantime, operators would be smart to start getting some of these premieres on their own portals, to bolster their own online positions.

Today I moderated a spirited discussion panel at CTAM NY’s annual Blue Ribbon Breakfast at Gotham Hall in NYC. The title was "Over the Top TV....Can Broadband Video Be Cable's Newest Opportunity?" We had an amazing group of panelists (click here to see list and listen to podcast) and with 450+ attendees a packed house as well.

A key question we dug into was whether and to what extent cable’s traditional (and highly successful) paid subscription model will be impaired by the rise of broadband video usage. Try as I did to see if any of the panelists believe that it will, none would admit to it. The reasons given included, "some form of a paid model will always exist but will never succumb entirely to a free, ad-supported model" to "cable networks won’t push broadband video distribution of their programs so hard as to upset the current model of receiving affiliate fees from cable operators", to "the low probability that inexpensive PC-to-TV bridge devices will proliferate any time soon" to "viewers have shown that they want a selection of channels to browse."

While I think each of these answers is quite legitimate, my point of view is that we are in the early days of an fundamental transformation in the video (and indeed the media more generally) business that will eventually (though of course who knows when and to what eventual degree) see most, if not all programming get unbundled into a fully on-demand paradigm.

I believe the ultimate answer to how cannibalistic broadband is toward cable ultimately turns on whether consumers believe it’s a "zero sum" game, meaning they choose between EITHER accessing programs via a VOD or DVR offering only available if they’ve bought into a monthly multi-channel video subscription (that’s to say the way the world works today) OR if they opt out of that subscription offering and INSTEAD choose to buy these programs a la carte, or receive them free, courtesy of a highly targeted ad model. The opt out option would of course be available through open broadband video distribution.

All trends point to the latter ultimately prevailing. While cable operators are well-positioned to shift their models to exploit this behavior if they act aggressively, they are also vulnerable to it if they don’t. The most important driver of the "opt out" scenario is that for an increasingly larger portion of our society, their behavior and expectations are formed by the Internet. And the ‘net is a completely personalizable and on demand medium. Especially for most online media, it is also mainly free, or paid on a fully a la carte basis (e.g. iTunes). Users’ expectations are through the roof and only getting higher. As broadband proliferates they will bring these same expectations to their decision-making.

Is it really realistic to believe that in 5 years when today’s MySpace/Facebook/YouTube/iTunes crazed 16 year old kid goes to set up his/her first apartment, s/he is going to embrace the notion of subscribing to a hundred channel package just so s/he can watch a handful of programs on demand? And of course, the ‘net’s behavior change isn’t confined to kids, it’s pervasive across all age groups.

Cable operators have an outstanding opportunity to capitalize on these macro behavioral trends. But doing so will require cable operators to make a significant and risky departure from their traditional subscription-based business models. It’s a classic incumbent’s dilemma. It will be interesting to see if they can do so.