Podcasts

Netflix reported Q3 ’25 results this week and said it expects advertising revenue to more than double in 2025 vs. 2024. As Colin and I discuss, it wasn’t that long ago that Netflix rejected the idea of offering an ad-supported tier at all; now that tier is driving significant growth for the company. 

Meanwhile, with the NBA season underway, games on NBC and Peacock are being broadcast and streamed. But, we’re skeptical that the $27 billion 11-year rights deal is likely to pay off for Peacock in sustainable subscriber growth or significantly increased time watched. 

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Antenna’s CEO Jonathan Carson joins us this week to explain his firm’s new product, Subscriber Views, which reveals programming’s true value for streaming services. Subscriber views marries licensed ACR data with Antenna’s own streaming subscriber data to derive viewers’ behavior around specific pieces of content. Subscriber Views then creates metrics for programming’s value in driving subscribers’ acquisition, retention and engagement.

As Jonathan explained, big streaming services have sophisticated analytics teams who understand the value of their own programming, but Subscriber Views provides a competitive intelligence tool to better understand viewers’ behavior on other services. Subscriber views data helps streamers better target their programming investments, schedule their releases and inform bundling options. 

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Netflix is getting closer to achieving parity revenue on subscribers to its ad-supported tier compared to subscribers to its ad-free. Colin shares his detailed analysis outlining the numbers. Then we discuss updates in the TV OS world including The Trade Desk inking a deal to bring Ventura OS to DIRECTV and Amazon launching Vega OS, which will replace Android on its Fire TVs. Last we explore the benefits of Fubo’s new deal to ingest ESPN content into its app.  

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New data from Wurl shows encouraging signs about FAST adoption, but accompanied by ongoing monetization challenges. The number of monthly active households watching FAST channels increased by 12% (though Wurl doesn’t disclose how many MAUs that translates to). In addition, average daily hours of viewing per household increased by 16% (again Wurl doesn’t share how many hours that is). Combined Wurl says the increase in total hours of viewing was up 29% in the past 12 months. 

But while viewership is up, monetization remains challenged. In particular, Wurl reported that ad fill rates continued their downward trend. As we discuss, monthly fill rates were down in six of the first eight months of 2025 vs. 2024, after having declined in 11 of the 12 months of 2024 vs. 2023.

Content choices are exploding, distribution platforms are proliferating and people are watching more content for free. All that is creating disequilibriums in FAST monetization.  

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Disney has raised prices for its streaming services again, by up to 20%. Following past increases CEO Bob Iger has said that subscriber retention held up well. But Disney+ and Hulu are now the highest-priced premium SVOD services and consumers are budget-conscious as always. Further, at the new price of $12 per month, Disney+ and Hulu are now 50% more expensive than Netflix’s Standard plan with ads. 

Meanwhile, as Colin notes the aggregate cost of the top SVOD services ad-free tiers has soared from $78 per month to $102 per month in the past two years, far surpassing the inflation rate. 

As we discuss, all of this adds up to heightened subscriber retention risk going forward. 

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Antenna reported that ESPN and Fox One gained one million subscribers in their first 10 days, with ESPN gaining the majority. Colin and I discuss whether that’s a lot, or not. We continue to be challenged to understand just how big the target market is for these two sports streaming services. Antenna also said 60% of Fox One’s subscribers came in via Amazon, underscoring its importance to the ecosystem. 

Meanwhile YouTube held its annual “Made on YouTube” event, where it disclosed it has paid out a whopping $100 billion to creators in the past four years. We wonder how that compares to what TV networks and studios have paid out to their creators over the same period? YouTube also shared a number of product updates. 

Last, we delve into ongoing innovations at Amazon and - given its aggressiveness and heft - speculate on whether Super Bowl LXXV in 2041 will actually be known as “Amazon Super Bowl LXXV” (not that far-fetched).

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YouTube said it had 17 million viewers for last Friday’s global livestream of the Chiefs-Chargers game from Brazil. YouTube said that was a new record for livestream. While the game was a one off license, the success of the livestream suggests YouTube’s appetite for more international streaming of NFL game could be whetted. And that the NFL will be further incented to create international rights packages. All of that would add to the considerable momentum behind digital players’ involvement with sports. 

Elsewhere, we discuss Bending Spoons’ acquisition of streaming stalwart Vimeo for $1.4 billion, Paramount Skydance’s efforts to resuscitate MTV’s cultural relevance, and the news from Google that Gemini is being built into a TCL smart TV. 

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Sports streaming continues to boom, as Paramount signed UFC to an exclusive 7-year deal worth $7.7 billion that will feature 43 events per year. It was the latest in a string of deals  that have seen enormous increases in fees paid to sports leagues and teams. New to the Paramount-UFC deal is that pay-per-view (a staple of UFC, wrestling and boxing for years) is being phased out in favor of the flat monthly subscription rate. We discuss the implications. 

Meanwhile ESPN and Fox One (both launching on August 21st) are creating a bundle for $40 per month, discounting the combination of their standalone services by $10 per month. Interesting for Colin and me is that the $40 per month price point is approximately the $43 per month that the ill-fated Venu Sports was priced. 

Last we explore the growth of “micro dramas,” short-form, serialized dramas that are proliferating on social media. Do they have staying power, or are they just a “Quibi 2.0,” that will flame out?

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Disney released a flurry of announcements this week - deeper integration of Hulu and Disney+, international brand transition from Star to Hulu, ESPN acquiring NFL Network and Red Zone, NFL investing billions in ESPN, and ESPN acquiring rights to stream major WWE events. 

We break it all down and handicap what it likely means to Disney’s future success. One thing that’s for certain: starting on August 21st, when the new ESPN direct-to-consumer streaming app launches, we will all begin to get the most authentic view yet of what ESPN is actually worth in the open market. 

After 45 years of ESPN’s expensive monthly rate being buried inside pay-TV’s multichannel bundle, along with speculation as to what sports fans would actually pay if charged directly, we will all find out. Disney has a lot riding on things turning out well in this new D2C approach. 

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First up this week, YouTube continued its strong ad revenue growth in Q2 2025, with revenue rising 13% to $9.8 billion, ahead of its forecast. There’s plenty of growth still ahead as Shorts gain traction, advertisers tap conversion opportunities and AI permeates both content and monetization. 

Meanwhile Samsung signed a number of creators to put original content on its Samsung TV Plus FAST service. But as we discuss, there seems to be a looming decision for creators whether they should simply focus on their YouTube channels as YouTube becomes increasingly dominant on TV screens. 

Last but not least, we dig into the challenges that both HGTV and Peacock are experiencing. 

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Ten years after Amazon launched Prime Video Channels, giving Prime users the ability to easily discover and sign up for subscription streaming services, Comcast has belatedly launched StreamStore, its own streaming app store. 

As we discuss, unfortunately for Comcast, Amazon dominates this space with 58% share, according to recent Antenna data. Even Roku, with its 90+ million users, only has a 6% share. As always in the Internet Economy there’s a cost to sitting on your hands too long. StreamStore’s ability to achieve meaningful share in this space seems unlikely.

Other topics in our grab bag this week: Jeff Bezos is considering buying CNBC, NBC is likely to launch a linear sports network including its Peacock rights, and traditional TV is still holding onto a large chunk of ad impressions, though it’s only decreasing from here. We explore all of these and more. 

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First up this week, A+E Global Media, which is co-owned by Disney and Hearst, is the latest group of cable TV networks for sale or spinoff, as media companies rush to divest themselves of troubled assets. We discuss the reasons behind the divestments, including the steep drop-off in viewership over the past four years. 

Next, Netflix is once again the number one ranked “must keep” brand in TV according to research from The Strategic Counsel. We explore what Netflix doing so well to keep retaining the top slot. 

Rounding out, HBO Max is, HBO Max again, after a two year distraction as Max, a branding no man’s land. And Apple is eyeing F1 streaming rights, another potential foray into sports. 

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This week we’re pleased to share our interview with Roku’s Senior Director, Global Ad Platform Partnerships and Business Development Miles Fisher. We do a deep dive into Roku’s recently announced partnership with Amazon Ads, which appears to be a potentially significant milestone in CTV realizing its ultimate potential as a full funnel medium.

As Miles explains, key to the partnership’s opportunity is the scale that both companies bring; Roku has 125 million logged in viewers per day on its devices, while Amazon has massive Prime program as well as other user data. Advertisers will be able to tap this impressive scale to target specific viewers with tangible performance outcomes. Roku and Amazon first-party data will be integrated through a custom identity resolution service.   

Roku has been focused on driving CTV to become a performance medium for a while, including programmatic (see panel with Roku and Walmart executives at VideoNuze’s June ’23 CTV Ad Summit). Miles said the companies have conducted early tests of the integration with positive tests. This is a partnership is definitely one to keep an eye on.

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In May, 2025 a milestone was reached according to Nielsen’s The Gauge: total streaming viewership surpassed total broadcast plus cable viewership for the first time. Streaming had a 44.8% viewership share while traditional TV had a 44.2% viewership share. To put these numbers in context, back in May 2021 streaming had a 26% share and traditional TV had a 64% share. 

As we discuss, there have been 4 main drivers of these seismic changes: (1) YouTube’s ascent as the number one destination for streaming content on CTVs, (2) the complete collapse of cable TV viewership, down from 39% four years ago to 24.1% now, driven in part by the disinvestment in cable TV networks by media companies in favor of their streaming services and (4) the rise of free ad-supported streaming services “FASTs” which have become broadly popular, especially among viewers 65 and over, with Tubi alone now having 100 million active viewers per month.

The combination of these factors has upended the TV industry. As we discussed on last week’s podcast, “Dissecting Warner Bros. Discovery’s Split,” Wall Street has taken notice. Just two companies - YouTube and Netflix - now have an estimated combined market value of over $1 trillion. Meanwhile the rest of the industry’s value has atrophied, with media companies now spinning off their cable TV networks. 

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This week we dissect the big news that Warner Bros. Discovery is going to split into two companies, one that will hold its global cable networks and the other that will hold the Warner Bros. and HBO/Max assets. 

It has been a long, winding path for the Time Warner assets, starting with AT&T’s proposed acquisition back in 2016. As Colin and I discuss, there have been a litany of questionable strategic and product/streaming decisons that have led to a significant decline in Warner Bros. Discovery’s valuation. As I detail, WBD’s decline starkly contrasts with the massive appreciation Netflix has experienced since 2016. 

Importantly, we also discuss the structural change that’s occurred in the media industry since 2016. Netflix is now valued at around $500 billion while YouTube’s imputed value - if it were a standalone company - is now around $500-$700 billion. So just two companies have a combined value of over $1 trillion - no doubt way more than the entire media industry’s value pre-streaming. Net, net, Netflix and YouTube have dramatically expanded the value of media pie, but have kept the vast majority of that increase themselves. 

Last but not least, at the beginning of the podcast we quickly review the final decision in the Disney-Comcast arbitration over Hulu’s valuation. I can’t resist mentioning that way back in 2018 I was advocating for Comcast to acquire all of Hulu (here and here). Instead they launched Peacock and have lost billions since.

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New data from Looper Insights illustrates how meaningful percentages of both video executives and viewers now see YouTube as an appealing destination for long-form content, including for premium content - as well as a viable alternative to major streaming platforms. The data underscores YouTube’s amazing evolution from a primarily UGC, short-form outlet to a genuine competitor for premium streaming on the big screen. The Looper data aligns with our podcast last week about Nielsen’s The Gauge data, which showed YouTube’s increasing share of TV viewing time.  

Part of the consequence of YouTube’s ascendance is the decline of broadcast and cable TV networks’ viewership. In the podcast we discuss continuing retrenchment at Warner Bros. Discovery, Disney and NBCU. We wrap up with a discussion of new Magna-Roku data and the Fubo-DAZN sports cross-licensing partnership.

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This week we discuss key findings in Gracenote’s Data Hub, including SVOD content libraries’ composition, genre, mood, exclusivity and geographic production. The data is sorted in a number of helpful ways that reveal the strategies and strengths of the top SVOD providers.

We then shift to new data from Nielsen’s The Gauge, showing YouTube’s continued dominance in aggregate TV/video viewing, which nudged up to 12.4% in April, 2025. Other top content providers’ shares were relatively unchanged. Unrelated, we also touch on Google’s new AI video generator Veo 3 and other video AI tools, which look poised to have a significant impact on the market.   

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We’re pleased to be joined once again by Antenna’s co-founder and CEO Jonathan Carson, who discusses highlights of the firm’s Q2 ’25 State of Subscriptions report “Adds and Ads.” Fully 71% of new SVOD subscribers in the past 2 years are on an ad tier, speaking to the outsized impact that advertising has had on the streaming industry.

Another finding that’s remarkable is that the demographics of ad tier and ad free subscribers are almost identical, debunking the traditional view that higher income consumers “buy out” of ad experiences. Retention is also similar across demos. Jonathan shares his insights on these findings and more. The report can be downloaded here.  

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This week we discuss the new ESPN direct-to-consumer app, which was announced this week. Colin thinks that at $30 per month it’s too expensive relative to other streaming services, yet given the breadth of content and features, I think the price seems fair or maybe even low.

A big question is how wide the adoption will be as most hardcore sports fans still have a pay-TV subscription. That leaves cord-cutters and cord-nevers as the primary targets, as well those who will take ESPN as part of a discounted package with Disney+ and Hulu. How many of them will subscribe? We explore these questions, as well as the return of “HBO” to Max’s branding and a few NewFronts items.  

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Disney reported its fiscal second quarter results this week, showing continued direct-to-consumer profitability, as well as modest subscriber gains for both Disney+ and Hulu. Given last year’s second half performance, it’s likely Disney will achieve DTC profitability for the full 2025 fiscal year, a first.

On the earnings call, Disney also noted that next week the branding and pricing for “ESPN Flagship” (the full ESPN DTC product including additional digital features) will be revealed. We anticipate integrated bundling with the existing Disney+/Hulu bundle.

Update: CNBC is reporting the ESPN DTC product will simply be called “ESPN,” and that pay-TV subscribers will get access to the DTC product’s bells and whistles add-on features. Pricing is expected to be $25-30 per month. (Sidenote: As part of the Disney+/Hulu bundle the effective price could be even lower.)

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