Warner Bros. Discovery reported its Q2 ’26 earnings this week, revealing continued healthy growth in its Streaming segment, but significant declines in revenue and earnings in both its Studios and Global Linear Networks segments. 

As we discuss, the new report further illustrates how WBD’s value continues to slide compared to February, 2026 when the Paramount deal was announced. As such, lenders and equity contributors to the deal should be re-evaluating their participation and terms with a fresh set of eyes. 

Further, in light of a trial that won’t even start until March, 2027, Larry Ellison, who has by far the biggest financial exposure on the deal, would benefit from reconsidering whether this deal, particularly on its current terms, is still worth pursuing. We reiterate that we see no better than a 25%-30% chance the deal will actually close. 

We then turn our attention to Disney, which struck a partnership with TikTok this week and appears to be considering launching some type of free streaming service. We discuss the merits of both of these moves. 

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Peacock Premium will be bundled with and integrated into YouTube Premium beginning in 2027. The deal is intriguing to Colin and me for a variety of reasons. As we discuss, we’re particularly interested in the cannibalization risk to Peacock, along with how the economics of the deal work, including the upside potential for Peacock. 

Then we shift to explaining why believe there’s no better than a 25%-30% chance that the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal will ever close. Last week’s decision to delay the closing well into 2027, subsequent to an antitrust trial, will, in time starkly reveal the declining value of Warner Bros. Discovery, making the already stretched acquisition price even harder to justify. 

Coupled with the particular economics of the deal, we believe there are powerful incentives for Larry Ellison to pay the breakup fee and walk away. 

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The World Cup’s success flowed through to streaming, with Fox One adding 2.8 million subscribers in June and Peacock adding 2 million in Q2. Peacock also turned its first profit in Q2, of $189 million, though management warned results will vary by quarter. 

YouTube also benefited, with over 1.7 billion unique viewers globally watching World Cup related video. That helped drive ad revenue to $11.1 billion in Q2, up 13% year-over-year. YouTube is also pursuing a range of ad enhancements and AI features that will grow engagement and ad revenue going forward.  

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Netflix management quashed viewer engagement concerns on its Q2 ’26 earnings video call yesterday. Recent reports about a falloff from season 1 to season 2 among some of Netflix’s important originals sparked worries that Netflix’s business may be slowing. 

But as Colin and I discuss, management forcefully stated that season 1 to season 2 viewership in the aggregate remains stable. Management also shared views on revenue and profitability growth, programming strategy and spending, the role of live content, the popularity of its gaming initiatives, and importantly, how AI is already being leveraged throughout the lifecycle of content production. 

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