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Inside the Stream: Will Peacock Turn the Corner? Netflix’s Ads Lag
Comcast reported Q2 ’24 results this week, including an update on Peacock, which cut its loss to $348 million in the quarter from $639 million a year ago. Peacock’s subscriber count increased from 24 million in Q2 ’23 to 33 million at the end of Q2 ’24, but that was actually down a million from the end of Q1 ’24.
In this week’s podcast we discuss whether and when Peacock will turn the corner and become a scaled, profitable streaming service. Peacock is betting big on expensive sports to deliver, with the Olympics kicking off tonight, and a new multi-billion dollar NBA deal to be announced soon, validating our call for Peacock to "Go Big or Go Home" back in November, 2021.
Peacock was a very late entry to the streaming game, and according to MoffettNathanson, has lost at least $8 billion over the past 14 quarters. Colin and I explain why we aren’t convinced sports can carry the weight of Peacock’s turnaround, and agree that only time will tell.
We then switch gears to discuss Netflix’s Q2 earnings and the company’s lagging ad-tier performance, which surprises both of us a bit. Veteran podcast listeners will recall that back in October, 2022 Colin and I expressed our optimism about the pending impact of paid sharing and the ad-tier. The former has been a monster success for Netflix, based at least partly on the expert execution of its rollout. The ad tier remains a work in progress but we remain confident Netflix will figure it out.
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Topics: Comcast, Netflix, Peacock, Podcast
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Inside the Stream: Exclusive Interview With Antenna Co-Founder and CEO Jonathan Carson
Antenna’s research has become a go-to source for streaming industry executives trying to understand the fast-evolving landscape. In this exclusive interview, Antenna’s Co-Founder and CEO Jonathan Carson discusses details behind the firm’s recently-released “State of the Subscriptions” report. Jonathan is an ad industry veteran with particular expertise in research and monetization, as well as a longtime friend.
Three weeks ago Colin and I did a podcast on the publicly available report, and Antenna itself did a short webinar about it two weeks ago. But this interview explores data that hasn’t been publicly released, so listeners gain access to brand new insights and data that Antenna hasn’t previously shared.
The interview provides a fascinating window into four drivers in streaming today: the shift to adoption of ad-supported SVOD tiers, the role of bundling, the anemic penetration of annual SVOD subscriptions and consumers’ acceptance to date of SVOD price increases. We finish up with Jonathan sharing his views of the industry going forward.
The interview with Jonathan is a must-listen for all industry participants. Together with our interview with leading Wall Street analyst Michael Nathanson two weeks ago, they are a blockbuster doubleheader of insights, helping all of us truly understand what’s happening in the streaming industry today.
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Inside the Stream: Exclusive Interview With Top Wall Street Analyst Michael Nathanson
We’re excited to have top Wall Street media analyst Michael Nathanson join us this week. Michael and his partner Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson are the “one-two punch” of the TV, streaming and broadband industries. Their analyses and insights are widely considered best in class. Michael is an old friend, and we’re so pleased to have him join us in this exclusive, must-listen interview.
Among the many topics we cover: the recent decline in CTV CPMs due to Amazon’s market entry and why the new inventory will be digested, the competitive dynamics in the broader CTV/AVOD market, YouTube’s massive scale and Michael’s prediction that YouTube TV will be the pay-TV market leader in two years with 10 million subscribers, FAST’s potential, legacy media’s abysmal $30B cumulative loss on DTC services in the past 5 years, why streaming’s future will be driven by advertising and why the “unit value” of advertising is poised to soar due to AI and finally, the biggest potential surprise in the next year.
Anyone who wants to understand what’s really happening in the TV/streaming industries will find this exclusive interview invaluable.
Listen to the podcast now (44 minutes)
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Topics: Disney, Hulu, Netflix, Podcast, YouTube
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Inside the Stream: Roku-MAGNA Interview About CTV Home Screen Research
This week we interview Roku’s Head of Ad Marketing Jordan Rost and MAGNA’s EVP, Intelligence Solutions Kara Manatt, about their companies’ new research - "From Power On to Power Off" - about viewers’ content discovery journeys and the role of CTV Home Screen advertising. A key takeaway of the research is that almost half (44%) of streaming sessions begin with the viewer browsing, rather than knowing what they want to watch.
That opens up a huge content discovery opportunity on the home page, which dovetails with advertisers (especially streaming services) desire to gain awareness and action. We discuss this dynamic and other findings from the research about viewers’ mindsets and receptivity to ads along with how home page ads are already being executed.
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Topics: Magna Global, Podcast, Roku
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Inside the Stream: Streaming is Tops on VIZIO, Max Raises Rates, Streaming TV is Loved
New research from Inscape analyzing the viewing behavior of 23 million opted-in VIZIO smart TV owners reveals streaming’s ascendance. In Q1 ’24, fully 58% of these viewers only streamed content, up 3 percentage points since Q4 ’23. 38% watched both streaming and pay-TV (cable, satellite and OTA), and just 3% only watched pay-TV. The streaming-only group has increased from 45% in Q4 ’21. We discuss these and other key findings.
Then we turn our attention to Max’s immediate rate increase, announced this week. Of note, only the two ad-free tiers are getting $1 per month increases, while the “Max With Ads” tier will remain $10 per month. As we discuss, this is the latest evidence of how traditionally ad-free streaming services (e.g. Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video) are incenting subscribers to take ad-supported plans - and why CTV advertising is poised to become more valuable than ever.
Last up we review new research from the American Customer Satisfaction Index showing record-high satisfaction levels for streaming services. Neither of us are surprised, given the strength of streaming’s value proposition. This year Amazon Prime Video topped the satisfaction list, but all streamers perfumed well and were tightly clustered.
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Topics: HBO Max, Inscape, Podcast, Vizio
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Inside the Stream: Box Office Plummets, Ad Experience Matters, Netflix’s Bundling Angle
Memorial Day weekend was a disaster for Hollywood, with approximately $128 million in box office, down 36% from 2023’s total, and the worst in decades. There are some specific reasons, such as the steep underperformance of “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga.” But as we discuss, any poor box office performance these days must always be viewed in the context of streaming’s myriad choices for viewers. Compounding matters for the box office are streaming’s inexpensive new bundles; on last week’s podcast we noted that Xfinity subscribers in particular can now access 6 top streaming services for just $30 per month.
Next we return to bundling topic, in light of new research from Antenna showing subscriber loyalty to top streaming services. No surprise, Netflix has the highest loyalty, which in turn begs the question: how does Netflix benefit from participating in discounted bundles? We offer our thoughts.
Also on our radar this week is FreeWheel’s latest research from its Viewer Experience Lab, focusing on factors that diminish the viewer’s ad-supported experience. The testing found that viewers were most bothered by slow or buffering ads (78%), ads that unnaturally interrupt the programming (71%) and “we’ll be right back” slates (33%). The research is important because as CTV advertising becomes an ever more critical revenue stream, delivering top-notch ad experiences will be essential for optimizing monetization.
Last up, we review new research from Horowitz Research which found that of sports viewers, 58% of 18-34 year-olds and 57% of 35-49 year-olds say they’re likely or very likely to subscribe to the new Venu Sports streaming service for $35-$40 per month. While the research validates basic interest in Venu, it still feels early to accurately estimate true demand for Venu. A big looming question for Venu’s value proposition is whether TNT is able to renew its NBA package.
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Topics: FreeWheel, Netflix, Podcast, Venu Sports
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Inside the Stream: Comcast’s New StreamSaver Bundle is Appealing to the Budget-Conscious
Earlier this week Comcast took the wraps off StreamSaver, its new streaming bundle available for Xfinity subscribers. For $15 per month, StreamSaver bundles Peacock Premium, Netflix Standard with ads and Apple TV+. If subscribed to separately the combined total would be $25 per month, as of July 1st when Peacock Premium’s price will rise to $8 per month. That means StreamSaver provides a bundled discount of $10 per month, or 40% off the standalone rates.
As Colin and I discuss, StreamSaver’s discount is in the same range as Disney’s Duo and Trio bundles, which fall between 35% and 44%. It also means that if Xfinity subscribers took both bundles, they would get 6 top streaming services - Netflix, Disney+, Hulu, Apple TV+, Peacock and ESPN+ for $30 per month, or an average of $5 per month per service.
From our standpoint, all this seems really appealing, especially to budget-conscious consumers. Think for a moment about the vast selection of entertainment and sports programming across these 6 services - all for $30 per month, which is far less than it would cost to take a family of 4 to a single movie, for just 2 hours of entertainment.
But as we also discuss, these discounted bundles need to perform their critical function of reducing churn and extending subscriber lifetime value. With so many different decisions required by viewers about what bundle (if any) to choose, it’s gong to be challenging to pinpoint causalities and correlations, making the elusive goal of streaming profitability ever more opaque.
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Topics: Apple TV, Comcast, Netflix, Peacock, Podcast
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Inside the Stream: Netflix is Well-Positioned to Lead in Bundling and CTV Ads
[UPDATED]
Netflix revealed at its Upfront this week that it now has 40 million monthly active users on its lower-priced ad-supported tier. It’s not clear how monthly active users and subscribers relate to each other. But I think it’s probably fair to assume that closer to around 10% of Netflix’s 270 million global subscribers are now ad-tier subscribers (Colin and I will clarify this further on next week's podcast). Not too shabby since the ad tier only officially launched in November, 2022. No surprise, Netflix is also creating its own ad-tech stack with partners.
In addition Hub Research released survey data showing that 15% of respondents cited Netflix as the brand that would most likely make them sign up for a bundle (Amazon followed with 12%, followed by AT&T with 10%).
As Colin and I discuss, all of this nicely positions Netflix to play a lead role in the “streaming bundles” age that has already begun (note that Comcast announced a Netflix-Peacock-Apple TV+ bundle this week, pricing TBD). And with the Netflix app ubiquitously available, it could be a key “on ramp” to targeted streaming bundles, based on viewers’ demonstrated interests. Given Netflix’s newfound scale in CTV ads, a bundling play could also find Netflix with a lead role in selling/managing ads across bundled services.
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Inside the Stream: Amazon Cranks Up Ad-Tier Subscribers; Disney’s DTC Progress
According to new data from Hub Entertainment Research, Amazon’s Prime Video now has the highest percentage any major SVOD provider taking its ad-supported tier. And it happened by Amazon simply flipping a switch at Prime Video to make ads the default for all subscribers. Perhaps most interesting is that two other major SVOD providers - Netflix and Disney+ used completely different strategies in introducing their ad tiers. Colin and I discuss why Amazon’s move is so significant for the company and the broader streaming industry.
Meanwhile this week Disney reported a $47 million profit in fiscal Q2 ’24 in its DTC segment, which includes Disney+ and Hulu. Profitability hadn’t been forecast until 6 months from now. It also added 8 million D+ subscribers domestically in the quarter. But as Colin details, closer analysis shows that Disney’s recent deal with Charter somewhat obscures the gains. There’s also the pressing question of whether DTC can be sustainably profitable.
We tackle lots of other juicy topics this week too: Tubi’s continued growth, advertising’s increasingly important role in supporting the streaming ecosystem, WBD’s cost-cutting and bundling plans with Disney, plus more.
Listen to the podcast to learn more (37 minutes, 3 seconds)
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Topics: Amazon, Disney+, Podcast, Tubi TV, Warner Bros. Discovery
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Inside the Stream: 3 Key Themes from This Week’s NewFronts
This week’s NewFronts highlighted three key and interlocking themes: TV OEMs’ emphasis on FASTs, AI’s role in driving video ads’ value, and CTV evolving to full funnel. We discuss each of these and how specific NewFront presentations addressed these points.
All of these feed a broader belief I’ve had for while: the value of a CTV ad - as measured by the financial return derived from gaining a unit of the viewer’s time - is only going to increase in the years ahead. Ads will continue to be more targeted and personalized, and also drive KPIs across the full funnel as viewers’ opportunities to engage soar.
Separate from video ads, I share highlights from IAB’s three-part session on Monday afternoon called “Spotlight On: News” which focused on the value of news media for brands and society. Huge credit to IAB for convening numerous C-level news executives to discuss the important role of trusted news in democracy and why it is good business for advertisers to be involved.
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Inside the Stream: Interview With Wurl’s CEO On AI’s Role in CTV Ads
This week we’re delighted to interview Wurl’s CEO Ron Gutman who discusses the company’s new AI-powered BrandDiscovery product that allows ads to be aligned with content in real time.
Ron explains the eight key emotional reactions to specific scenes in entertainment programming, and how ads that are consistent with these emotions deliver far higher conversion. He also details the critical role AI plays in enabling improved personalization and targeting. The discussion further demonstrates how units of advertising are going to become ever more valuable as technology enriches them.
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Inside the Stream: NAB 2024 Showcases AI, Blockchain and More
Colin was at NABShow for a couple days and on this week’s Inside the Stream we discuss some of his top takeaways. No surprise AI was everywhere at NAB, as was blockchain. We discuss companies including Moments Lab, Obvious Future, LivePeer and others. Finally Colin learned some neat tricks for all of us to be greener with our big screen TVs, which he shares.
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Categories: AI, Blockchain, Podcasts
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Inside the Stream: AI Drives New Value for Cineverse-Gracenote and Others
AI has taken the world by storm and the TV/video industries are no exception. AI is revolutionizing the value chain of video creation, delivery and discovery. On this week’s podcast we discuss several examples, including a new partnership between Cineverse and Nielsen’s Gracenote. The role that Cineverse’s AI chatbot “Ava” - and others - could eventually play in viewers’ discovery experience is early stage, yet quite exciting.
Also part of our AI discussion is new survey data showing 70% of newsroom members are using AI to create content, The Weather Company’s use of AI to enable hyperlocal weather videos and Adobe’s forthcoming AI text-to-video product.
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Inside the Stream: TiVo’s Q4 ’23 VTR: Service Declines, Discovery Challenges and More
On the podcast this week Colin and I dig into Tivo’s Q4 2023 Video Trends Report, released earlier this week and available here. Among other things, TiVo’s research found that in the past 2 years the number of paid video services used per respondent has leveled off while non-paid services has increased, indicating higher levels of ad tolerance.
Meanwhile, TiVo found that the gap between people signing up for a new streaming service and dropping one is at an all-time low, highlighting how churn remains an issue.
In addition, nearly half of respondents typically go to 2 or 3 streaming apps before deciding on something to watch. Just 19% of respondents said they know what they want to watch, once again revealing how important discovery remains.
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Inside the Stream: Disney+/Hulu UX Lags, ESPN and RSNs, NFL Skeptical of Sports JV
As has been promised for a while, Hulu has been integrated into Disney+ in a bid to present more content seamlessly to viewers. No doubt the move was a significant undertaking, yet Colin’s early review shows a few key UX features lagging, notably his viewing history. We expect that in time these will be updated.
Elsewhere at Disney, ESPN has taken initial steps toward being a sports hub by incorporating links in its app and web site to regional sports networks’ streams. NESN, Monumental Sports Network and SportsNet Pittsburgh are already available. ESPN could play a vital role in addressing the problem of sports streaming fragmentation.
Finally, Colin and I both noticed the NFL’s chief media/business officer Brian Rolapp’s skepticism about how the sports JV (or “Spulu”) will be priced. Rolapp observes that if it’s priced in the $40-$50 per month range, then subscribing to YouTube TV (for example) would only be another $20 or so per month - and would include more NFL games, plus scripted and unscripted programming. This is exactly the point Colin and I have been making - the JV’s pricing window seems awfully narrow.
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Topics: Disney+, ESPN, Hulu, NFL, Podcast
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Inside the Stream: New Data Shows Streaming’s Dominance Over Traditional Media
This week we discuss new data from Inscape, Deloitte and HarrisX, which all illustrate how streaming is continuing to build its dominance over traditional media. To highlight a few key points:
Inscape found that among its VIZIO panel of users, 55% are streaming-only (i.e. no pay-TV), up from 49% in 2022. Deloitte reported that the average U.S. household is now spending $61 per month on 4 SVOD services, up 27% from $48 per month in 2023. And HarrisX found in its poll that just 34% of American adults prefer to watch a movie in a theater.
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Topics: Deloitte, Inscape, Podcast
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Inside the Stream: FAST Euro Limits, TV OS Wars, Broadcaster Super Apps
Colin has been in London participating in a CTV conference, and this week he shares some of his observations about how the competitive landscape in Europe compares with the U.S. Among the topics we discuss are why FASTs are unlikely to grow as quickly as in the U.S., the burgeoning market for TV OS’s, and the introduction of broadcasters’ “super apps.”
The discussion is a great reminder that while CTV has taken the U.S. by storm, it is evolving differently in other parts of the world.
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Topics: Podcast
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Inside the Stream: Fubo’s Spulu Duel, Apple’s $700M Movie Splurge, Max and Disney Follow Netflix
First up on this week’s podcast we discuss Fubo CEO David Gandler’s statement that the company is in a “duel to the death” with Spulu, the new sports JV from Disney, WBD and Fox. He makes a good point that if the 3 companies allow the JV access to their sports networks without requiring the JV to also pay for non-sports networks as companies do with typical pay-TV deals, this would put the JV at a cost advantage compared to pay-TV operators like Fubo.
Next, Variety reported Apple spent $700 million on just 3 movies last year, a bet that Colin and I both believe is far too concentrated for a streaming service that is struggling with high churn and badly needs catalog depth. Finally, both Max and Disney+ are trying to emulate Netflix in cracking down on password sharing and on improving churn. Can they catch up with the clear market leader?
Finally, all the session videos from last week’s VideoNuze CTV Advertising PREVIEW: 2024 virtual are available.
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Topics: Disney, Fox, fuboTV, Netflix, Podcast, Warner Bros. Discovery
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Inside the Stream: RIP Freevee?, YouTube tops on CTV, Peacock & Paramount+ Combine?
This week we discuss the logic of Amazon shutting down Freevee, which Adweek reported, and Amazon denied. We see a number of pros and cons to the move. Meanwhile Nielsen said that YouTube was once again the number one streaming service used on CTVs, ahead of Netflix and everyone else. This was the twelfth month in row for YouTube and we explore the reasons behind it.
Finally the rumor mill is swirling that Peacock and Paramount+ may combine forces, and we dig into how it would benefit both entities.
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Topics: Amazon, Paramount+, Peacock, Podcast, YouTube
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Inside the Stream: Walmart-VIZIO Deal; Super Bowl Streamers Mystery
Earlier this week the WSJ reported that Walmart is seeking to acquire VIZIO for over $2 billion. Colin and I discuss the likely strategic rationale behind the deal. We both like the benefits to both companies with grabbing a bigger share of CTV ad spending a big upside.
Meanwhile, the Super Bowl scored a record 123.4 viewers across all platforms according to Paramount. The company also said it was the most-streamed Super Bowl in history, but didn’t disclose how many streamers there actually were. We dig into the numbers and Colin provides his estimates.
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Topics: CBS Sports, Paramount, Podcast, Super Bowl, Vizio, Wal-mart