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Digital Movie Purchase and Rental Activity Remains Anemic
Earlier this week IHS Screen Digest Media Research released market share information for the top 5 U.S. digital/online movie stores for the first half of 2011, which together represent approximately 96% of the market. In addition, IHS released information on revenues generated for both purchase/download (Electronic sell-through or "EST") and rental (Internet video on demand or "iVOD").
In the chart below, I've taken the IHS data a step further to estimate each of the top 5 stores' revenues and transaction volume from EST and iVOD (note IHS only provides combined EST+iVOD market share information so for simplicity I have assumed each individual store's share is the same for both EST and iVOD though no doubt there are some variations). The data leads to a clear conclusion that years after movies have been available for digital purchase/download and rental, activity remains anemic, suggesting very low levels of consumer interest, particularly as compared with DVD purchase or rental/subscription options.
Categories: Aggregators, Commerce, FIlms
Topics: Amazon, IHS, iTunes, Microsoft, Sony, VUDU, Wal-Mart
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Amazon Gets Universal Movies to Stream That Netflix Already Has
Amazon announced a new licensing deal with NBCU that gives it streaming rights to a batch of older movies from Universal Pictures, bumping to 9,000the number of movies and TV shows available for its Amazon Prime Members. However, the move is unlikely to have the folks at Netflix quaking in their boots; like Amazon's licensing deal with CBS from last week, virtually all of the Universal movies are already available on Netflix (by my count 9 of the 11 titles identified in today's press release can be streamed on Netflix while only "Elizabeth" and "Fletch" are available solely on DVD).
Don't get me wrong, more content is always a good thing, and these deals, along with an acquisition of Pushbutton, a UK app developer for connected devices, suggest things may be ramping up at Amazon. But the content deals do underscore the catch-up game that Amazon is playing with Netflix. That's the dynamic in today's market - Netflix got a head start in aggregating Hollywood content for online distribution. Now, to the extent it has a willingness to pay, Amazon must go do similar deals.
Categories: Aggregators, FIlms, Studios
Topics: Amazon, Netflix, Universal
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New CBS Licensing Deal Doesn't Offer Amazon Much Differentiation vs. Netflix
Amazon and CBS announced a licensing agreement this morning, which, while a step in the right direction for Amazon Prime, doesn't seem to offer it much differentiation. The press release states that 18 CBS TV programs are part of the deal, though the only ones identified are "The Tudors," "Numb3rs," "Medium," the "Star Trek" series, "Frasier" and "Cheers." A quick glance at Netflix's catalog shows that all past seasons of "Numb3rs," "Medium," "Cheers," "The Tudors" and the original 3 seasons of "Star Trek" are available on streaming. Only "Frasier" isn't available on streaming, though it is on DVD.
Perhaps some of the other programs in the deal aren't already available on Netflix, but the group identified today underscores how networks' and studios' non-exclusive approach means that any distributor with a willingness to pay will get essentially the same content.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters
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Netflix is Likely to Become the Largest U.S. Video Subscription Service When It Reports Q1 '11 Today
Netflix is likely to become the largest U.S. video subscription service - as measured by total subscribers - when it reports its Q1 '11 results at 4:05pm ET today. The milestone would be the latest evidence of Netflix's rapid accent as a major force in online distribution of Hollywood films and TV programs, as well as a central player in the unfolding battle for the digital living room.
Netflix ended 2010 with just over 20 million subscribers, and provided Q1 domestic ending subscriber guidance of between 21.9 million and 22.8 million subscribers. If Netflix slightly beats the high end of its guidance range it will eclipse Comcast, currently the largest video service provider, which ended 2010 with 22.802 million video subscribers.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Amazon, Comcast, Netflix
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Amazon is Still a Paper Tiger in Online Video Subscriptions
Since Amazon introduced a streaming video benefit in its Prime service almost 2 weeks ago, there have been plenty of people suggesting that the move was a game-changer in online video subscriptions. Eventually that may be the case. But for now, Amazon's streaming video strategy appears very underwhelming and is unlikely to change industry dynamics much at all. When compared to the effort and resources Amazon has put into the Kindle, for example, streaming video looks more like a side project than a high-priority company initiative.
As I wrote in my initial review, the pervasive problem in Amazon's approach to streaming video is the absence of a clearly defined video brand or value proposition. The fact that Amazon decided to staple video streaming onto the Prime membership program says a lot about how Amazon views video for now: as a supporting player to more important company revenue drivers like Prime, rather than a star in its own right.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Amazon
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With New CBS Deal, Netflix Reminds Amazon (and Hulu) Who's King of the Streaming Jungle
As if on cue, Netflix announced a new streaming deal with CBS this morning, just hours after Amazon took the wraps off its own new streaming feature for Prime users. Under the 2-year deal, Netflix will get episodes from classicseries like "Star Trek," "Frasier," "Cheers," "Twin Peaks," "Hawaii Five-O," "The Twilight Zone," and others. It will also include certain episodes from current shows like "Medium" and "Flashpoint." The companies had a previous streaming deal signed in late 2008 that covered series like "NCIS," "CSI" and "Numbers" which appears to have expired.
The new CBS agreement sends a strong message to Amazon that when it comes to premium content, Netflix is still king of the streaming jungle. If Amazon wants to compete title-for-title, it is going to have to spend aggressively for content. As I pointed out earlier today, Amazon is only likely to do this if it sees meaningful increases in Prime membership due to the new streaming feature, which I believe is unlikely.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters
Topics: ABC, Amazon, CBS, Hulu, NBCU, Netflix
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Amazon Prime Instant Streaming Launches; Not a Netflix-Killer (Yet Anyway)
Amazon is announcing this morning that it has added streaming access to 5,000 movies and TV shows to the package of benefits its "Prime" members get, for no extra charge as part of their $79/year subscription. Amazon is offering a one month free trial to Prime to let new users test it out. The move had been widely rumored and of course the first company that comes to mind as being in the cross-hairs of Prime's streaming is Netflix. Those competitive concerns are legitimate, but for now, Prime isn't close to being a Netflix-killer.
The big Achilles heel of Prime is content selection. Though 5,000 titles sounds like a lot, it won't take long for experienced Netflix users tempted by a switch to Prime to recognize that most of these titles are already available on Netflix streaming as well. I did a quick comparison of 20 randomly-selected titles on Prime and found that with the exception of a few BBC Shakespeare titles and certain episodes of the PBS series "American Experience," everything on Prime is already available on Netflix streaming. In fact, for now Prime relies heavily on British programming and PBS. Though both provide quality productions, they are far from mainstream popularity in the U.S.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: ABC, Amazon, Apple, EPIX, NBC, Netflix, Starz
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Hey Jason Kilar: You Should Go Back to Amazon and Compete Against Netflix
Not that Hulu's CEO Jason Kilar has asked for or needs my career advice, but in light of his controversial "speaking truth to power" blog post on the future of TV, which has wags all over the industry saying his tenure at Hulu is all but over, I'll offer it up anyway: he should go back to Amazon (where he was prior to Hulu) and run their soon-to-be-launched video subscription business that will compete directly against Netflix.
Categories: Aggregators, People
Topics: Amazon, Hulu, Jason Kilar, Netflix
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Amazon Acquires LOVEFiLM Making Netflix's European Expansion a Lot Harder
Amazon announced this morning that it has bought the remaining 58% of European DVD-by-mail and online subscription service LOVEFiLM. Amazongained its stake in 2008 when LOVEFiLM acquired Amazon's European DVD rental business (Amazon also invested in LOVEFiLM as part of the deal). Given Amazon's position, the new deal, said to be worth around $320 million, was widely rumored.
Though the companies offered no insight in the press release as to what prompted the move, I think it can be interpreted as a bid by Amazon to make Netflix's expansion into the European market much harder. Netflix expanded into Canada last September with a streaming-only service and has continued to beef up the content selection offered there, even as stories have emerged that Canadian broadband ISPs' consumption caps can generate incremental fees for heavy Netflix users. Nonetheless, Netflix has been bullish about its near-term profitability expectations in Canada and executives have made no secret of the company's intention to expand further internationally, with Europe certainly in the bullseye.
Categories: Aggregators, Deals & Financings, FIlms, International
Topics: Amazon, LOVEFiLM, Netflix
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What's Up With Amazon Going Hollywood?
Last night when I read about Amazon getting into the movie-making business through a new crowd-sourcing project called Amazon Studios, my first reaction was, "huh, what's up with that?" Now, having had a night to sleep on it, my reaction is still, "huh, what's up with that?" I must be missingsomething here. I just can't figure out what strategic value Amazon gains by vetting scripts and financing $2.7 million in prizes to aspiring film-makers.
It would be different if a video-centric, like YouTube, Hulu or Netflix were pursuing such a project, as it would feed them potentially exclusive, or at least a first window distribution opportunity for feature films, while also strengthening their bonds with their users. But for Amazon, which is first and foremost an e-commerce that competes on price, availability and service, creating new films doesn't quite add up. That said, I do get the value for Amazon's partner Warner Bros.; for them it's another chance to get first dibs on projects that look promising.
Topics: Amazon, Warner Bros.
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As DVD Sales Wane, Experiments With Movies' Digital Delivery Windows Rise
Yesterday brought more evidence of how digital distribution release windows and promotions are rising as DVD sales wane. First there was news that Disney had teamed up with Wal-mart to allow buyers of the Toy Story 3 DVD to get a bonus digital version of the film playable through the company's recently acquired Vudu digital outlet. That offer was quickly one-upped by Amazon which announced an increase from 300 to 10,000 movies in its "Disc+" program, which provides a digital copy to the user's Amazon VOD account when they purchase a qualifying DVD.
Meanwhile at the Blu-con conference in Beverly Hills, studio executives debated how to best calibrate digital, VOD and DVD distribution. Even emerging practices come with exceptions and debates about results. For example, while VOD has largely gained day-and-date release with DVD, exceptions are still made on a case-by-case basis, such as with Universal's "Despicable Me" which will have its DVD go on sale on Dec 14, but its VOD release not until after Christmas.
Topics: Amazon, Apple, Best Buy, Disney, EPIX, FOX, Netflix, Sony, Starz, Universal, VUDU, Wal-Mart, Warner Bros.
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Amazon is Now Selling Samsung's Connected Blu-ray Players For Lowest Prices Yet
Amazon is now selling two of Samsung's most popular connected Blu-ray DVD players, the BD-C5500 and the BD-C6500 for $109 and $132, respectively, which I believe are the lowest prices yet for these two products (note theseare new, not refurbished). The main difference between the two is that the 6500 has built-in wireless and 1GB of local storage, whereas the 5500 supports wired Ethernet access only. I've been tracking the prices on these two units for a while now and actually picked up the 6500 almost a month ago for what was then the lowest price I had seen of $190. The new prices put the Blu-ray players in close proximity to Apple TV and Roku in particular.
Just yesterday, Best Buy was advertising the 6500 for $160, which itself was probably the best price I'd seen to date (by comparison, Crutchfield and Walmart.com are both still asking $250). The move toward $100 brings both products well into the comfort zone for many millions of buyers this holiday season, helping drive Blu-ray penetration to new highs. This in turn creates many more connected homes accessing content from providers like Netflix, Vudu, Pandora, etc.
Categories: Devices
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Netflix, HBO, Others Coming to Google TV
Google released further details on Google TV this morning, unveiling a slew of content services and apps that will be available at launch. Chief among them are Netflix and HBO Go (both for subscribers), Amazon VOD and Pandora, plus new apps from NBA ("NBA Game Time"), NBCU ("CNBC Real-Time"), and "optimized" content from Turner Broadcasting, NY Times, USA Today, VEVO, Napster, Twitter and blip.TV. Google didn't specify what optimized means, but I suspect it means appropriate metadata so that programs can be exposed in Google TV searches. Of course, "Leanback," YouTube's 10-foot interface, will also be featured.
Categories: Devices
Topics: Amazon, blip.TV, Google TV, HBO, Logitech, Napster, NBCU, Netflix, NY Times, Pandora, Turner, Twitter, USA Today, VEVO
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Netflix Launching Canadian Streaming Service on Wednesday
It looks like Netflix is set to launch its streaming-only service in Canada this Wednesday, according to a report in The Hollywood Reporter, which says CEOReed Hastings will do the unveiling in Toronto. Netflix announced on July 19th that it would launch in Canada, its first non-U.S. market.
There are pros and cons to Netflix entering the Canada without offering DVDs-by-mail. The main pros are that Netflix avoids the expense associated with both building out the DVD warehouses/delivery centers and the postage expense to send discs. The cons are that the content selection will be drastically lower than what's available in the U.S., which could disappoint Canadians eager to have the same American service. Even though Netflix has been aggressively adding to its streaming catalog, it's still a fraction of what's on DVD. And it's not clear yet whether all the streaming deals Netflix has recently cut include Canadian distribution rights.
Hastings has been candid in the past that Netflix will proceed cautiously with international expansion. There are a lot of new variables outside the U.S., including competition. Over the weekend there was a report that Amazon may be looking to acquire the remaining part of U.K.'s LoveFilm that it doesn't already own.
What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).
Categories: Aggregators, International
Topics: Amazon, LOVEFiLM, Netflix
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Putting Premium Content Within an Arm's Length of Desire
Robert Woodruff, the long-time president of Coca-Cola, had a famous quote summing up his ambition for the fizzy brown water: "I want Coke to be within an arm's length of desire." Given the initiatives of Apple, Google, Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, Sony, pay-TV operators, Roku, TiVo, gaming consoles and numerous others, a spin on the Woodruff quote might well be, "They're all putting premium content within an arm's length of desire." It's no exaggeration to say that we are on the cusp of unprecedented consumer access to premium content - both current and past seasons' TV programs along with archived and new-release movies.
The choices being presented to consumers are dizzying, and are poised to become increasingly complex. With Apple's announcement yesterday of a $99 Apple TV connected device, and 99-cent rentals from ABC and Fox (and others no doubt to follow), another relatively low-cost option for viewing premium content will be available. Not to be outdone, Amazon also unveiled its own 99-cent option yesterday, for downloads of TV programs, though the durability of this offer isn't yet clear. And Sony too announced a new service called Qriocity to delivery its content to its connected devices.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Sony
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Amazon Must Offer DVDs-by-Mail As Well As Streaming to Fully Compete With Netflix
The WSJ is reporting that Amazon is gearing up to offer a subscription service to stream catalog TV shows and movies. Amazon has long offered content on a VOD rental and purchase basis, but a subscription move would put the retail giant into direct competition with Netflix, the current 800-pound gorilla of the TV/movie streaming market.
However, for Amazon to effectively compete head-on with Netflix it would need to secure comparable streaming rights, which is probably doable, albeit costly. More importantly though, Amazon would also need to offer a fullselection of DVDs, delivered by mail, and the infrastructure to support it. In some ways that's a much tougher challenge, and whether Amazon wants to take this on is a huge open question.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Amazon, Hulu Plus, Netflix
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #54 - March 26, 2010
Daisy Whitney and I are pleased to present the 54th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for March 26, 2010.
This week Daisy starts us off by reviewing new research on the iPad's appeal as an ebook reader. Daisy also reviews sobering forecasts suggesting that the iPad is unlikely to change people's willingness to pay for content (regarding video specifically, Daisy and I agreed a while back that for now its impact for video specifically is likely to negligible). I'm not convinced the iPad will trigger a wave of people willing to pay for content, but I do believe any iPad research is still very preliminary. It's only when users get their hands on the device that we'll really start to learn how impactful it is. The iPad is of already available for pre-order and is set to debut in stores late next week.
We then shift topics and discuss my post from earlier this week, "Here's How Google TV Will Work - And What It Might Mean," in which I described Google's new set-top box and the company's strategy for entering the market. Google's move is likely to set off a fascinating negotiating dynamic with incumbent video service providers, and Daisy and I get into some more of the details.
(Note, Daisy's mic isn't working that well on this podcast, so please be patient)
Click here to listen to the podcast (14 minutes, 13 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Devices, Podcasts
Topics: Amazon, Apple, Google, iPad, Podcast
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4 Items Worth Noting from the Week of August 24th
Following are 4 news items worth noting from the week of August 24th:
1. Time Warner Cable, Verizon launch TV Everywhere trials - Little surprise that Time Warner Cable announced its own TV Everywhere trial yesterday, given that former sister company Time Warner has been one of its biggest proponents. More interesting was Verizon launching a TV Everywhere initiative, which I regard as a pretty strong indicator that most or all service providers will eventually get on board. (The Hollywood Reporter has a story that DirecTV is in talks too for online distribution of TBS and TNT to start).
I have to give credit to Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes, TV Everwhere's key champion, who's clearly generated a groundswell of support. While some critics see TV Everywhere as being at odds with the "open Internet" ethos, I continue to think of it as a big win for consumers eager to get online access to their favorite cable programs. Assuming authentication is proven in during the trials I expect a speedy rollout.
2. Conde Nast distributes through boxee - I was intrigued by news that Conde Nast Digital will begin distributing video from its Wired.com and Style.com sites through boxee. boxee and others who connect broadband to TVs are valuable for magazines and other content providers who have long been shut out of the cable/satellite/telco distribution ecosystem, thereby unable to reach viewers' TVs. Years ago special interest magazines missed big opportunities to get into cable programming, allowing upstart cable networks to grow into far larger businesses (consider ESPN vs. Sports Illustrated, Food Network vs. Gourmet or CNBC vs. Forbes). Broadband gives magazines, belatedly, an opportunity to get back into the game.
3. Amazon announces 5 finalists in UGC ad contest - Have you seen the 5 finalists' ads in Amazon's "Your Amazon Ad" contest, announced this week? They're quite clever, with some amazing special effects. The contest is another great example of how brands are tapping users' talents, posing new competition to ad agencies. I haven't written about this in a while, but I continue to be impressed with how different brands are pursuing this path. Doritos has been the most visible and successful with its user-generated Super Bowl ads.
4. Microprojectors open up mobile video sharing opportunities - Maybe I've been living under a rock because I just read about "microprojectors" for the first time this week (I have a decent excuse since as I non-iPhone owner I wouldn't have a use for one, yet). As the name suggests, these are pocket-size projectors that allow you to output the video from your iPhone to project onto a large surface like a wall or ceiling. According to this NY Times review the quality is quite respectable, and is no doubt only going to improve. The mind boggles at what this could imply for sharing mobile video. Imagine bringing a kit - consisting of an iPhone, portable speakers and microprojector - to your friend's house, then plugging in and projecting either a live stream or an on-demand program for all to see.
Enjoy your weekend!
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Commerce, Devices, Magazines, Telcos, UGC
Topics: Amazon, Comcast, Conde Nast, Time Warner Cable, Verizon
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4 News Items Worth Noting from the Week of July 20th
Following are 4 news items worth noting from the week of July 20th:
Apple reports blowout iPhone sales in Q2, continuing to drive market - It was another record quarter, as Apple reported selling 5.2 million iPhones, bringing to 21.4 the total sold to date. This despite acknowledging temporary shortages during the quarter. The iPhone continues to revolutionize the mobile market, and from my standpoint is the key catalyst for both recording and consumption of mobile video. This market is poised for significant growth as new smartphones hit the market along with fixed monthly data plans. Apps like MLB.com At Bat 2009, which offers live streams of games, are certain to be hits and emulated widely.
8 minute video of Amazon's Jeff Bezos discussing lessons learned and Zappos acquisition - You couldn't miss news this week of Amazon acquiring Zappos for around $900M, its largest deal ever. Interestingly, Amazon posted a video on YouTube of Bezos discussing the deal, but not until he walked through several maxims of Amazon's success (obsess over customers, think long term, etc.). The video is extremely informal, with Bezos flipping hand-scrawled notes on an easel and improvising funny anecdotes. It has a slightly random feel (until he gets to the Zappos part, you start to wonder, what's the point of all this?), but I give Amazon and Bezos lots of credit for using video in a totally new way to communicate with stakeholders. I'd love to see more CEOs do the same.
Is Disney CEO Bob Iger serious about creating a subscription site for its online video? This week at Fortune's Brainstorm conference, Iger floated the idea that Disney will offer movies, TV shows and games for paying subscribers. The timing seems more than coincidental as Comcast gears up for its On Demand Online trial. Is Iger serious about this, or is it a head fake from Disney so it can try to negotiate incremental payments from Comcast and others seeking to distribute Disney content online? It's hard to tell, but I'd be curious to see what Disney has in mind for its possible subscription service. Consumers hate the idea of paying twice for anything (even paying once is not so popular), so if Disney is somehow going to create another window where they charge for access to content that's still on, or was recently on cable, that would be an awkward model.
"Mad Men" coming to Comcast's On Demand Online trial - Speaking of the Comcast trial, I was thrilled to hear from David Evans, SVP of Broadband at Rainbow Media (owners of AMC, the network behind Mad Men) at yesterday's CTAM Teleseminar that the show will be included in Comcast's trial and presumably in rollout. David is very bullish on online distribution and the larger TV Everywhere concept, though cautioned that there are many rights-related issues still hanging out there. I'm a huge Mad Men fan (whose new season starts on Aug 16th) and the idea that I don't have to worry about recording each episode or managing space on my DVR, and that I can watch remotely when I'm on the road, all underscore TV Everywhere's value.
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Amazon, AMC, Apple, Comcast, Disney, iPhone, MLB, Rainbow Media, YouTube, Zappos
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Is My Prediction That Microsoft Will Acquire Netflix Going to Come True?
Amid the chatter over the past few days about Amazon possibly buying Netflix, Kara Swisher at All Things Digital today instead suggested that Microsoft would make a better Netflix acquirer. Her sentiments echoed my Dec '08 prediction that Microsoft would acquire Netflix at some point in '09. It was admittedly a "long ball" call on my part (especially since I had zero inside dope), but one which actually makes even more sense 7 months later.
Why? Because Comcast and the cable industry's aggressive new TV Everywhere/On Demand Online initiatives make Netflix more valuable than ever for any company looking to offer a subscription-based,
broadband-delivered video service. Outside the cable/satellite/telco industries themselves, Netflix - with its 10 million+ current DVD-by-mail subscribers - is the only serious subscription video provider. Its recent stellar performance shows the durability of its model even in the face of the ongoing recession. And it continues to build out its streaming service with various device partners (including notably Xbox 360).
If Comcast succeeds with On Demand Online (and since the technical trial hasn't even begun yet, that's still a big "if"), and other cable operators quickly follow suit, the broadband video industry is poised for a fundamental shift away from ad-only business models to hybrid models where subscriptions are key. Any current or aspiring premium video provider that does not have an established subscription approach is going to be disadvantaged in its access to high-quality programming and ongoing product development resources. CBS's addition to Comcast's trial shows that even broadcasters are beginning to position themselves in the subscription mix.
My full rationale for why Netflix is so appealing for Microsoft is laid out in the Dec post, so I won't restate it here. Of course nobody outside the companies involved knows if any of the M&A chatter is for real. But if it is, my bet is still that Microsoft is the acquirer to watch, not Amazon. I suspect we'll see other analysts making a similar case if things heat up.
What do you think? Post a comment now.
Categories: Aggregators, Deals & Financings
Topics: Amazon, Comcast, Microsoft, Netflix