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VideoNuze-TDG Report Podcast #142 - NBC Olympics Streaming; Pay-TV Losses; Aereo's Low Pricing
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 142nd edition of the VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast. In this week's podcast Colin and I first discuss NBC's Olympics video streaming. Despite some high profile criticism, we agree that NBC has actually done a pretty good job and has laid a foundation for live streaming to be an expected part of all Olympics coverage in the future.
Next we review Q2 '12 results from some of the largest pay-TV operators. Video subscriber losses continue, although Q2 is historically a soft quarter. Colin notes that recent TDG research shows the pay-TV value proposition is increasingly challenged and he believes that means higher churn is ahead, with bigger opportunities for OTT options.
Speaking of those options, Aereo announced new low-cost plans and both Colin and I agree that they're a clever way to reduce entry barriers and increase viewing flexibility. It's still early, but we like Aereo's odds of success.
Last up, we note the early demise of the Nexus Q media streaming device, a product that both us called a dud a couple of weeks ago.
Listen in to learn more.
Click here to listen to the podcast (21 minutes, 43 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators, Podcasts, Satellite, Sports, Startups, Telcos
Topics: Aereo, Comcast, Google, NBC Sports, Olympics, Podcast
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VideoNuze-TDG Report Podcast #140 - Sky Launches NOW TV, Lessons for U.S. Market?
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 140th edition of the VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast.
In this week's podcast Colin and I discuss NOW TV, which Sky, the big British satellite-based pay-TV operator, launched on Tuesday. Initially the service allows unbundled access to Sky Movies, a collection of around 600 early window movies, on either a monthly subscription or a la carte rental basis. The big breakthrough here is that traditionally Sky Movies was only available if you first subscribed to the basic service, which costs around 60 pounds/month.
Colin views the move as an attempt to re-start growth at Sky, moving the company beyond the approximately 10 million subscribers it has, mainly by appealing to broadband-only households. Clearly in NOW TV's cross-hairs are both Netflix and LoveFilm. More broadly, Colin and I discuss how NOW TV might or might not be a model for U.S. pay-TV operators to consider. I wrote earlier this week that with the cost of pay-TV service continuing to rise and consumers' expectations shifting, it's time for the industry to present more flexible pricing and packaging options to subscribers.
Listen in to learn more.
Click here to listen to the podcast (19 minutes, 36 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: FIlms, International, Podcasts, Satellite
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Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert Episodes Available Online Again; Viacom's Moves Are Bewildering
The Viacom-DirecTV carriage dispute has taken another odd turn, as full, current episodes of The Daily Show With Jon Stewart and The Colbert Report with Stephen Colbert are once again available at their respective sites and at Hulu. Given that digital distribution and its effect on Viacom's networks' linear ratings is a core issue in the negotiations, and that last week Viacom removed some of its networks' show from the web, the renewed availability of Comedy Central's stars Stewart and Colbert are hard to understand.
In fact, if you want a good chuckle, see the screen grabs below - when each of last night's episodes play, there is a message across the bottom of the page that reads "DIRECTV HAS DROPPED COMEDY CENTRAL. DON'T MISS YOUR FAVORITE SHOWS. CALL DIRECTV AT 1-800-531-5000." Hello?? I'm not missing my favorite shows - I'm watching them right now online, just above this urgent message! And by the way, I'm getting them for free, just after they originally aired, and fully on-demand. Does this make sense to you? Right, me neither.Categories: Cable Networks, Satellite
Topics: Comedy Central, DirecTV, Viacom
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It's Time to Get Real About the Limits of the Multichannel TV Bundle
One of the big side effects of the current Viacom-DirecTV and Dish-AMC carriage disputes has been a renewed questioning of the durability of the traditional multichannel TV bundle by many industry observers. But while outsiders and consumers may be looking for the pay-TV industry to reinvent the way it packages and prices its services, attending the NECTA cable industry conference last Friday was yet another reminder of how committed the industry is to preserving the multichannel TV model.
To be fair, for many households (particularly heavy viewers), multichannel service is optimal and a great value. But consumers aren't monolithic, and it's time for the pay-TV industry to get real about multichannel's limits. Operators' main approach continues to be promoting an entry level tier of digital TV that has grown ever more expensive (moderator Bruce Leichtman pegs the mean monthly spending on multichannel TV service at $78.63, 7% higher than in 2011). This has, in turn, created a well-documented affordability issue for the industry.Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: AMC, DirecTV, Dish Network, Viacom
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Auto Hop is Charlie Ergen's Way of Saying the TV Ad Model is Irreparably Broken
Since I read Dish Network's press release last month announcing its new Auto Hop feature, I've been scratching my head, wondering (like many others), what Dish's cryptic CEO Charlie Ergen was really thinking about with the move. Auto Hop is such a blatant poke in the eye to broadcasters' ad-based business model that Ergen surely knew it would evoke a legal and business response - as it has.
Therefore, I was hoping an article in last Friday's WSJ, based on the first interviews with Ergen about Auto Hop, would clarify his motivations. While some have called Auto Hop a negotiation tactic with broadcasters over retransmission consent fees (which, in part it is), rather, I think Ergen's larger message with Auto Hop is that the traditional TV ad model is irreparably broken and it's urgent the industry figure out what's next. Not doing so risks the ultimate unraveling of the great American broadcast TV industry.Categories: Advertising, Broadcasters, DVR, Satellite
Topics: Dish Network
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #126 - Sky's NOW TV; iPad's Data Cap Problems
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 126th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Mar. 23, 2012. This week finds Colin in London, providing him an even better perspective on our first topic this week, Sky's new over-the-top service called NOW TV, which it will launch this summer. Colin is bullish on NOW TV and likes the lessons it provides for U.S. pay-TV operators.
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Analytics, Books, Devices, International, Podcasts, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: iPad, Sky, Verizon Wireless
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Even Microsoft Can't Afford to Break Into the Pay-TV Business
Here's just how expensive it has become to break into the pay-TV business: even mighty Microsoft can't afford it. Reuters reported late yesterday that Microsoft has put on hold its plan to create a pay-TV meets Netflix type
subscription service, after getting sticker shock over the cost of content distribution deals. When you have $52 billion of cash and equivalents on your balance sheet and still can't figure out how to make the numbers work, that's a pretty significant statement about how expensive licensing linear content has become.Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
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Blockbuster Adds Streaming Content, But Still Only Available to Dish Subscribers
Dish Network made a series of announcements today (enhanced HBO on demand access, whole-home DVR, bundled satellite broadband with ViaSat, expanded Univision distribution), but the one that caught my eye focused on increased video selection for its "Blockbuster@Home" online service, a new brand name which looks like it will replace the "Blockbuster Movie Pass" brand that Dish unveiled back in September. Specifically, Dish said it has added 3,000 titles targeted to kids ages 3-13 with partners Vivendi Entertainment, Cookie Jar, Lions Gate and Scholastic Media.
Categories: Aggregators, Satellite
Topics: Blockbuster, DISH
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Why Albert Pujols is Over-the-Top's New Best Friend
When baseball great Albert Pujols signed a staggering 10-year, $254 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last week, he became
over-the-top's (OTT) new best friend. That's right, everyone including Netflix, Hulu, YouTube and Amazon, plus countless online-only content producers, should have been celebrating Pujols's new riches. Why? Because the Pujols deal is the latest example of how pay-TV seems determined to price itself out of reach for certain segments of the population, opening up a huge window for OTT to succeed.
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Indie Video, Satellite, Sports, Telcos
Topics: Albert Pujols, Angels, ESPN, FOX, Liberty Global, TNT
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YouTube's Redesign: The Long-Term Siege on Pay-TV Begins
Yesterday YouTube launched its most significant redesign yet, with a strong emphasis on channelizing the site, deeply personalizing the experience, and integrating social interaction throughout. As the introductory blog post says, the redesign is all about helping users "discover a broader range of entertainment on YouTube." And though YouTube would never admit it, I think the redesign marks the start of a long-term siege on the traditional pay-TV model. YouTube is squarely focused on would-be cord-cutters and especially the younger generation of "cord-nevers" for whom the web has already become a bona fide alternative to expensive pay-TV services.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: YouTube
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Boxee Aggressively Pursues Cord-Cutters With New Live TV Dongle
Connected device maker Boxee is aggressively going after pay-TV cord-cutters with a new Live TV dongle it is introducing this morning. The dongle plugs into a USB slot on the Boxee box and takes in a feed of live broadcast channels accessed from either an HD antenna or via a pay-TV provider (note there's always a tier of local broadcast channels available without a set-top box, however the number and quality varies widely). Boxee's CEO Avner Ronen walked me through the logic of who it is appealing to as well as the key challenges for success.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Devices, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: Boxee
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Google To Go Over-the-Top and Compete With Pay-TV Operators? Don't Bet On Success.
Is Google planning to go over-the-top and compete with pay-TV operators for subscribers? That's the tantalizing possibility the WSJ is reporting this morning, though its article is long on speculation and short on hard facts and on-the-record sources (as best I could tell, the only concrete thing
reported is that Google has hired Jeremy Stern - a former colleague of mine at Continental Cablevision - who's "spearheading talks with media companies"). Regardless, the possibility that Google could be looking to disrupt the pay-TV business, using its own high-speed fiber network in Kansas City and maybe elsewhere, deserves attention if for no other reason than the fact that its deep-pockets and robust ad model would potentially allow it to cause trouble for incumbents.
"Potentially" is the operative word however, because any subscription TV service Google would offer would only be as good as the channels it could deliver (see Sezmi's recent retreat for proof of that). As such, the critical question here is whether the most important cable network owners - Disney, NBCU, Viacom, Time Warner, Fox, Discovery, Scripps, A&E Networks, AMC Networks, numerous regional sports networks (RSNs) and others - would agree to deals with Google. Though they would no doubt be enticed by Google as another well-funded buyer, barring some huge unknown, I'd bet that most would say "Thanks, but no thanks," effectively stymieing the search giant's ambitions.
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos, TV Everywhere
Topics: Google
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NDS Unveils VideoGuard Connect DRM; Sky Go and DirecTV As Initial Customers
NDS has unveiled VideoGuard Connect, a DRM solution for pay-TV operators looking to securely distribute linear and on-demand content to connected
devices. In addition, NDS is announcing that U.S. satellite operator DirecTV has adopted VideoGuard Connect to deliver video online and to iOS and Android devices, while the U.K.'s BSkyB has adopted it to deliver video for its Sky Go service to iOS devices. NDS's Nigel Smith, VP/Chief Marketing Officer and Leonid Sandler, CTO of its DRM group briefed me on the new DRM solution.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Devices, DRM, Satellite
Topics: NDS
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Expensive Regional Sports Networks Are Becoming Pay-TV's Achilles Heel
An article in the NY Times over the weekend, "Regional Sports Networks Show the Money," highlighted the mega-profitable and symbiotic relationship between marquee sports teams/conferences and the regional sports networks (RSNs) they have spawned. RSNs aren't new, but as the article pointed out, teams and conferences are getting increasingly creative and aggressive about their TV rights, in turn driving up the fees pay-TV operators and ultimately subscribers are required to pay. All of this suggests that RSNs are becoming pay-TV's Achilles Heel especially when it comes to non-sports fans.
This is a topic I covered back in January, in "Not a Sports Fan? Then You're Getting Sacked For At Least $2 Billion Per Year" and subsequently in "Time Warner Cable-LA Lakers Deal Is More Bad News For Pay-TV's Non-Sports Fans," in each case noting that as sports programming fees drive pay-TV rates ever higher, some portion of non-sports fans will eventually defect for lower-cost entertainment-centric options (e.g. Netflix, Hulu, over-the-air/ antenna reception, etc.).
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Sports, Telcos
Topics: LA Dodgers, LA Lakers, Pac-12, RSNs
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Here's the Real Story Behind Pay-TV's Record Q2 '11 Subscriber Losses and the Role of Cord-Cutting
Today I'm pleased to present a special 2-part VideoNuze Report podcast with guest Bruce Leichtman, who is president and principal analyst of Leichtman Research Group. Bruce has been doing primary consumer research on the pay-TV industry for 15 years and is one of the foremost industry authorities.
In part 1 of the podcast, Bruce gives a detailed analysis of the industry's record Q2 '11 loss of over 300K subscribers among its 14 largest providers. Bruce explains the industry's historical context, drills down on which companies had the biggest year-over-year change and what accounted for this. Importantly, Bruce focuses on larger macro and micro-economic factors that are influencing the industry's results in a bigger way than new technologies and innovation which often take center stage.
Then in part 2 we turn our attention to the role of cord-cutting on the industry and the influence of Netflix specifically. First, Bruce clarifies the difference between non-video subscribers and "cord-cutters," a crucial distinction which he believes has recently been overlooked by many. Bruce shares his research on how many actual cord-cutters there are, which types of pay-TV subscribers are most vulnerable to cord-cutting and what role Netflix is playing. We wrap up by discussing what's ahead and how concerned industry CEOs should be about the threat of cord-cutting.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Podcasts, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: Leichtman Research Group
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Fox's New 8-Day Window Obsoletes Hulu's Simple User Experience
If one of the things you liked most about Hulu has been its simple, straightforward user experience - where TV programs could be quickly found and viewed - then Fox's new 8-day authenticated pay-TV window is going to feel like a big hassle. And if ABC and NBC, Hulu's other broadcast content partners and owners, adopt a similar approach to Fox, then it's really going to feel like going back to the dark ages of user experience.
Fox's authentication window means that during the first 8 days after an episode's air date only current subscribers of certain pay-TV services (DISH Network for now) or Hulu Plus can watch that episode. That in turn means that when searching for a new episode on Hulu, the resulting experience will be quite different than it has been.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
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Pay-TV Industry Ekes Out Q1 Gain. Netflix Softens Its Tone. What's It All Mean?
Trying to get one's head around the true competitive dynamic between pay-TV operators and new "over-the-top" entrants is surely one of the most vexing exercises video industry executives face these days. The media's coverage only exacerbates things: when the pay-TV industry contracts for a quarter, the headlines imply cord-cutting is sweeping the nation, then when the pay-TV industry reverses and makes a small gain, the headlines suggest all is fine again in pay-TV land, and that Netflix is just a nice little complimentary service.
So it was again this week, as industry analysts released their Q1 pay-TV subscriber estimates showing that pay-TV operators as a whole eked out an increase of around 450K-500K subscribers. While that was a better showing than the past 2-3 quarters when the industry shed subscribers, it was also slightly worse than Q1 '10. Regardless, the first quarter is a seasonally-strong quarter for pay-TV, and so the gains must be tempered by what follows in subsequent quarters. The good news is that the economy is improving which can only help budget-minded households better afford expensive pay-TV services.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: Netflix
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #87 - Feb. 11, 2011
Daisy Whitney and I are pleased to present the 87th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for February 11, 2011.
In this podcast, Daisy and I do a deep dive into the role of sports in pay-TV packaging, based on my post from Monday, "Not A Sports Fan? Then You're Getting Sacked For At Least $2 Billion Per Year." I think this is a fascinating topic and something that has been under-reported even though it has huge implications for pay-TV subscription rates as over-the-top services gain awareness.
The basic premise of my post was that since a relatively small cluster of sports-oriented channels (e.g. ESPN, TNT, Regional Sports Networks and others) collectively cost pay-TV operators $10 per month, then the charges being incurred by non-fans and casual who fans who rarely, if ever watch these channels, could amount to at least $2 billion per year. Since writing the post and gaining feedback from various sources, it's actually quite possible that the annual charges incurred in exchange for little-to-no value could exceed $3 billion. Whatever the number is, it's very large, and effectively represents a massive subsidy that non-fans and casual fans pay each year because of escalating sports TV rights deals and astronomical player compensation.
Click here to listen to the podcast (17 minutes, 8 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Podcasts, Satellite, Sports, Telcos
Topics: Comcast SportsNet, ESPN, Hulu, NESN, Netflix, Podcast, RSN, TNT
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CES Takeaway #2: Don't Count Out the Pay-TV Operators
(Note: Each day this week I'll be writing about one key takeaway from CES 2011.)
If you've been thinking that pay-TV operators were imminent roadkill due to burgeoning "over-the-top" consumption and imminent cord-cutting mania, then important news from CES 2011 should cause you to reassess your assumptions. Instead of new technology undermining pay-TV businesses (which is too often how media characterizes things), the largest operators are starting to show how technology can be used to create compelling new value for their subscribers and enhance their competitiveness even as they relinquish a little control.
At CES, pay-TV announcements focused primarily on 2 areas: extending viewing to tablet computers and eliminating the set-top box by delivering full channel line-ups over broadband to connected TVs. Comcast, the largest U.S. pay-TV operator, made announcements spanning both: live, in-home access on iPads, with on-demand access outside the home, plus Xfinity TV access on certain Samsung connected TVs and on its new Galaxy Tab tablet. Time Warner Cable announced deals with both Samsung and Sony to deliver its line-up to certain connected TVs as well. Dish Network also unveiled its "Remote Access" service for Android tablets, allowing both live and on-demand viewing using the Sling Adapter (it had announced this for iPads in December). Last fall, Dish was also the first pay-TV operator to integrate with Google TV.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, Devices, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: AT&T, Comcast, Netflix, Samsung, Sony, Time Warner Cable, Verizon
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Online/Mobile Video's Top 10 of 2010
2010 was another spectacular year of growth and innovation in online and mobile video, so it's no easy feat to choose the 10 most significant things that happened during the year. However, I've taken my best shot below, and offered explanations. No doubt I've forgotten a few things, but I think it's a pretty solid list. As much as happened in 2010 though, I expect even more next year, with plenty of surprises.
My top 10 are as follows:
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Broadcasters, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Deals & Financings, Devices, Mobile Video, Regulation, Satellite, Technology, Telcos
Topics: 4G, Android, Apple, Google TV, iPad, Net Neutrality, Netflix, YouTube
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