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Inside the Stream: Will Peacock Turn the Corner? Netflix’s Ads Lag
Comcast reported Q2 ’24 results this week, including an update on Peacock, which cut its loss to $348 million in the quarter from $639 million a year ago. Peacock’s subscriber count increased from 24 million in Q2 ’23 to 33 million at the end of Q2 ’24, but that was actually down a million from the end of Q1 ’24.
In this week’s podcast we discuss whether and when Peacock will turn the corner and become a scaled, profitable streaming service. Peacock is betting big on expensive sports to deliver, with the Olympics kicking off tonight, and a new multi-billion dollar NBA deal to be announced soon, validating our call for Peacock to "Go Big or Go Home" back in November, 2021.
Peacock was a very late entry to the streaming game, and according to MoffettNathanson, has lost at least $8 billion over the past 14 quarters. Colin and I explain why we aren’t convinced sports can carry the weight of Peacock’s turnaround, and agree that only time will tell.
We then switch gears to discuss Netflix’s Q2 earnings and the company’s lagging ad-tier performance, which surprises both of us a bit. Veteran podcast listeners will recall that back in October, 2022 Colin and I expressed our optimism about the pending impact of paid sharing and the ad-tier. The former has been a monster success for Netflix, based at least partly on the expert execution of its rollout. The ad tier remains a work in progress but we remain confident Netflix will figure it out.
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Topics: Comcast, Netflix, Peacock, Podcast
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Inside the Stream: Exclusive Interview With Antenna Co-Founder and CEO Jonathan Carson
Antenna’s research has become a go-to source for streaming industry executives trying to understand the fast-evolving landscape. In this exclusive interview, Antenna’s Co-Founder and CEO Jonathan Carson discusses details behind the firm’s recently-released “State of the Subscriptions” report. Jonathan is an ad industry veteran with particular expertise in research and monetization, as well as a longtime friend.
Three weeks ago Colin and I did a podcast on the publicly available report, and Antenna itself did a short webinar about it two weeks ago. But this interview explores data that hasn’t been publicly released, so listeners gain access to brand new insights and data that Antenna hasn’t previously shared.
The interview provides a fascinating window into four drivers in streaming today: the shift to adoption of ad-supported SVOD tiers, the role of bundling, the anemic penetration of annual SVOD subscriptions and consumers’ acceptance to date of SVOD price increases. We finish up with Jonathan sharing his views of the industry going forward.
The interview with Jonathan is a must-listen for all industry participants. Together with our interview with leading Wall Street analyst Michael Nathanson two weeks ago, they are a blockbuster doubleheader of insights, helping all of us truly understand what’s happening in the streaming industry today.
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Inside the Stream: Exclusive Interview With Top Wall Street Analyst Michael Nathanson
We’re excited to have top Wall Street media analyst Michael Nathanson join us this week. Michael and his partner Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson are the “one-two punch” of the TV, streaming and broadband industries. Their analyses and insights are widely considered best in class. Michael is an old friend, and we’re so pleased to have him join us in this exclusive, must-listen interview.
Among the many topics we cover: the recent decline in CTV CPMs due to Amazon’s market entry and why the new inventory will be digested, the competitive dynamics in the broader CTV/AVOD market, YouTube’s massive scale and Michael’s prediction that YouTube TV will be the pay-TV market leader in two years with 10 million subscribers, FAST’s potential, legacy media’s abysmal $30B cumulative loss on DTC services in the past 5 years, why streaming’s future will be driven by advertising and why the “unit value” of advertising is poised to soar due to AI and finally, the biggest potential surprise in the next year.
Anyone who wants to understand what’s really happening in the TV/streaming industries will find this exclusive interview invaluable.
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Topics: Disney, Hulu, Netflix, Podcast, YouTube
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Inside the Stream: Antenna Data on the Bundle’s Power, Annual Plans and More
Antenna has released its new “State of Subscriptions” report, which is full of data and insights addressing some of the most pressing topics in the streaming industry.
On this week’s podcast, we dig into some of the report’s key takeaways about how annual subscriptions aren’t gaining much traction with viewers, why streaming bundles are already succeeding, the surprising degree to which subscribers are accepting price increases, the ascendancy of ad-supported tiers and more.
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Topics: Antenna
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Inside the Stream: Streaming is Tops on VIZIO, Max Raises Rates, Streaming TV is Loved
New research from Inscape analyzing the viewing behavior of 23 million opted-in VIZIO smart TV owners reveals streaming’s ascendance. In Q1 ’24, fully 58% of these viewers only streamed content, up 3 percentage points since Q4 ’23. 38% watched both streaming and pay-TV (cable, satellite and OTA), and just 3% only watched pay-TV. The streaming-only group has increased from 45% in Q4 ’21. We discuss these and other key findings.
Then we turn our attention to Max’s immediate rate increase, announced this week. Of note, only the two ad-free tiers are getting $1 per month increases, while the “Max With Ads” tier will remain $10 per month. As we discuss, this is the latest evidence of how traditionally ad-free streaming services (e.g. Netflix, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video) are incenting subscribers to take ad-supported plans - and why CTV advertising is poised to become more valuable than ever.
Last up we review new research from the American Customer Satisfaction Index showing record-high satisfaction levels for streaming services. Neither of us are surprised, given the strength of streaming’s value proposition. This year Amazon Prime Video topped the satisfaction list, but all streamers perfumed well and were tightly clustered.
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Topics: HBO Max, Inscape, Podcast, Vizio
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Inside the Stream: Comcast’s New StreamSaver Bundle is Appealing to the Budget-Conscious
Earlier this week Comcast took the wraps off StreamSaver, its new streaming bundle available for Xfinity subscribers. For $15 per month, StreamSaver bundles Peacock Premium, Netflix Standard with ads and Apple TV+. If subscribed to separately the combined total would be $25 per month, as of July 1st when Peacock Premium’s price will rise to $8 per month. That means StreamSaver provides a bundled discount of $10 per month, or 40% off the standalone rates.
As Colin and I discuss, StreamSaver’s discount is in the same range as Disney’s Duo and Trio bundles, which fall between 35% and 44%. It also means that if Xfinity subscribers took both bundles, they would get 6 top streaming services - Netflix, Disney+, Hulu, Apple TV+, Peacock and ESPN+ for $30 per month, or an average of $5 per month per service.
From our standpoint, all this seems really appealing, especially to budget-conscious consumers. Think for a moment about the vast selection of entertainment and sports programming across these 6 services - all for $30 per month, which is far less than it would cost to take a family of 4 to a single movie, for just 2 hours of entertainment.
But as we also discuss, these discounted bundles need to perform their critical function of reducing churn and extending subscriber lifetime value. With so many different decisions required by viewers about what bundle (if any) to choose, it’s gong to be challenging to pinpoint causalities and correlations, making the elusive goal of streaming profitability ever more opaque.
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Topics: Apple TV, Comcast, Netflix, Peacock, Podcast
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Inside the Stream: Netflix is Well-Positioned to Lead in Bundling and CTV Ads
[UPDATED]
Netflix revealed at its Upfront this week that it now has 40 million monthly active users on its lower-priced ad-supported tier. It’s not clear how monthly active users and subscribers relate to each other. But I think it’s probably fair to assume that closer to around 10% of Netflix’s 270 million global subscribers are now ad-tier subscribers (Colin and I will clarify this further on next week's podcast). Not too shabby since the ad tier only officially launched in November, 2022. No surprise, Netflix is also creating its own ad-tech stack with partners.
In addition Hub Research released survey data showing that 15% of respondents cited Netflix as the brand that would most likely make them sign up for a bundle (Amazon followed with 12%, followed by AT&T with 10%).
As Colin and I discuss, all of this nicely positions Netflix to play a lead role in the “streaming bundles” age that has already begun (note that Comcast announced a Netflix-Peacock-Apple TV+ bundle this week, pricing TBD). And with the Netflix app ubiquitously available, it could be a key “on ramp” to targeted streaming bundles, based on viewers’ demonstrated interests. Given Netflix’s newfound scale in CTV ads, a bundling play could also find Netflix with a lead role in selling/managing ads across bundled services.
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Inside the Stream: Amazon Cranks Up Ad-Tier Subscribers; Disney’s DTC Progress
According to new data from Hub Entertainment Research, Amazon’s Prime Video now has the highest percentage any major SVOD provider taking its ad-supported tier. And it happened by Amazon simply flipping a switch at Prime Video to make ads the default for all subscribers. Perhaps most interesting is that two other major SVOD providers - Netflix and Disney+ used completely different strategies in introducing their ad tiers. Colin and I discuss why Amazon’s move is so significant for the company and the broader streaming industry.
Meanwhile this week Disney reported a $47 million profit in fiscal Q2 ’24 in its DTC segment, which includes Disney+ and Hulu. Profitability hadn’t been forecast until 6 months from now. It also added 8 million D+ subscribers domestically in the quarter. But as Colin details, closer analysis shows that Disney’s recent deal with Charter somewhat obscures the gains. There’s also the pressing question of whether DTC can be sustainably profitable.
We tackle lots of other juicy topics this week too: Tubi’s continued growth, advertising’s increasingly important role in supporting the streaming ecosystem, WBD’s cost-cutting and bundling plans with Disney, plus more.
Listen to the podcast to learn more (37 minutes, 3 seconds)
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Topics: Amazon, Disney+, Podcast, Tubi TV, Warner Bros. Discovery
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Inside the Stream: Disney+/Hulu UX Lags, ESPN and RSNs, NFL Skeptical of Sports JV
As has been promised for a while, Hulu has been integrated into Disney+ in a bid to present more content seamlessly to viewers. No doubt the move was a significant undertaking, yet Colin’s early review shows a few key UX features lagging, notably his viewing history. We expect that in time these will be updated.
Elsewhere at Disney, ESPN has taken initial steps toward being a sports hub by incorporating links in its app and web site to regional sports networks’ streams. NESN, Monumental Sports Network and SportsNet Pittsburgh are already available. ESPN could play a vital role in addressing the problem of sports streaming fragmentation.
Finally, Colin and I both noticed the NFL’s chief media/business officer Brian Rolapp’s skepticism about how the sports JV (or “Spulu”) will be priced. Rolapp observes that if it’s priced in the $40-$50 per month range, then subscribing to YouTube TV (for example) would only be another $20 or so per month - and would include more NFL games, plus scripted and unscripted programming. This is exactly the point Colin and I have been making - the JV’s pricing window seems awfully narrow.
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Topics: Disney+, ESPN, Hulu, NFL, Podcast
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Inside the Stream: Fubo’s Spulu Duel, Apple’s $700M Movie Splurge, Max and Disney Follow Netflix
First up on this week’s podcast we discuss Fubo CEO David Gandler’s statement that the company is in a “duel to the death” with Spulu, the new sports JV from Disney, WBD and Fox. He makes a good point that if the 3 companies allow the JV access to their sports networks without requiring the JV to also pay for non-sports networks as companies do with typical pay-TV deals, this would put the JV at a cost advantage compared to pay-TV operators like Fubo.
Next, Variety reported Apple spent $700 million on just 3 movies last year, a bet that Colin and I both believe is far too concentrated for a streaming service that is struggling with high churn and badly needs catalog depth. Finally, both Max and Disney+ are trying to emulate Netflix in cracking down on password sharing and on improving churn. Can they catch up with the clear market leader?
Finally, all the session videos from last week’s VideoNuze CTV Advertising PREVIEW: 2024 virtual are available.
Listen to the podcast to learn more (26 minutes, 43 seconds)
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Topics: Disney, Fox, fuboTV, Netflix, Podcast, Warner Bros. Discovery
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Inside the Stream: RIP Freevee?, YouTube tops on CTV, Peacock & Paramount+ Combine?
This week we discuss the logic of Amazon shutting down Freevee, which Adweek reported, and Amazon denied. We see a number of pros and cons to the move. Meanwhile Nielsen said that YouTube was once again the number one streaming service used on CTVs, ahead of Netflix and everyone else. This was the twelfth month in row for YouTube and we explore the reasons behind it.
Finally the rumor mill is swirling that Peacock and Paramount+ may combine forces, and we dig into how it would benefit both entities.
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Topics: Amazon, Paramount+, Peacock, Podcast, YouTube
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Inside the Stream: Netflix’s Record Q4 Boosted by Paid Sharing and Ads
Netflix added 13.1 million global subscribers in Q4 ’23, its best fourth quarter ever. As we discuss, the company is capitalizing on the introduction of paid sharing and a lower priced ad-supported tier. Paid sharing, which requires those who were using someone else’s login credentials to start their own subscription, has been especially effective. Netflix designed a smart strategy to eliminate this long-valued benefit. It could have become a PR nightmare, but instead has rolled out seamlessly.
Netflix said that the ad-supported tier now accounts for an impressive 40% of new subscriptions in markets where it is available. In yet another move to optimize revenue, Netflix is discontinuing its $11.99 per month Basic plan, which will drive more new subscribers to the ad tier or the least expensive ad-free tier which is $15.49 per month.
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Inside the Stream: Surprises Revealed By Netflix’s Engagement Report
On this week’s Inside the Stream Colin and I dig into Netflix’s first engagement report, released earlier this week. The report details what subscribers watched during the January-June 2023 period. It includes viewership of over 18,000 titles, which comprises 99% of all viewing on the service. Colin has used the data to make several calculations about Netflix’s overall business. Hopefully other streaming services will share similar data in the future.
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Inside the Stream: SVOD Bundling, Peacock Hits 30M, WBD’s FASTs, Hulu’s Disney+ Tile
On this week’s Inside the Stream Colin and I first discuss the trend toward SVOD services being bundled with one another. We agree the approach makes sense to cut churn and increase the lifetime value of subscribers. Next, Peacock has hit 30 million paying subscribers, which we believe is a healthy milestone for the three year-old service, though its losses are in the billions of dollars.
Meanwhile, WB Discovery has launched 11 FAST channels on Freevee, and Colin shares his thoughts on why the company could be more aggressive with FASTs. Last up, Disney moved the needle on integrating Hulu by adding a tile in the Disney+ UI for a beta group of subscribers.
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Topics: Disney+, Hulu, Peacock, Podcast, Warner Bros. Discovery
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Inside the Stream: Disney, Roku, WB Discovery and Dish Q3 Results
It’s earnings season, and on this week’s podcast, Colin and I discuss results from Disney, Roku, WB Discovery and Dish. The four companies’ subscriber counts, profitability and shifting business models all provide insights into larger industry trends and challenges.
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Topics: DISH Network, Disney, Podcast, Roku, Warner Bros. Discovery
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Inside the Stream: Will Disney’s Big Hulu Bet Deliver on Kilar’s Streaming Success Plan?
Disney has officially begun buying out Comcast’s 33% ownership in Hulu, for at least $8.6 billion. Hulu will become a centerpiece of Disney’s strategy to appeal to a broad range of audiences. Coincidentally former Hulu CEO Jason Kilar recently shared his recommendations for how media companies can succeed in streaming. Can Disney’s big Hulu bet deliver on Kilar’s vision?
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Inside the Stream: Broadcasters’ SVODs Struggle, But Their FASTs Flourish
This week on Inside the Stream, Colin and I discuss Comscore’s 7th annual State of Streaming report, which was just released. For CTV homes, Netflix leads with 74% reach, followed by YouTube, with 71%, though YouTube has 47 hours of viewing time per month, compared with 35 hours for Netflix. Despite billions of dollars of content and branding investments, broadcasters’ SVOD services lag in both metrics, though their FASTs, especially Pluto TV and and Tubi, are performing well.
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Inside the Stream: Disney’s D2C Profitability Seems On Track, But At What Cost?
Disney reported its fiscal Q3 2023 this week, with Disney+ global subscribers (excluding Disney+ Hotstar) growing 800K to end at 105.7 million. Both ESPN+ and Hulu stayed approximately flat too. The sore point was Disney+ Hotstar, which lost 12.5 million subscribers to end at 40.4 million, primarily due to the loss of IPL cricket.
It is less clear what’s ahead for Disney+ subscribers with another $3 per month price increase planned, taking the ad-free tier up to $13.99 per month. With the ad-supported tier remaining at $8 per month, the company said it is guiding new subscribers to that tier. Meanwhile Disney will also begin imposing password sharing restrictions like Netflix has. Add in the strikes which will constrain new content, and it seems like elevated churn is on the way.
Colin and I discuss all of these changes and more, as Disney continues to evolve.
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Inside the Stream: What are the Consequences of SVOD Library Cuts?
Some big SVOD services are cutting content from their libraries, including certain originals. Most prominently, Disney recently said it’s taking a $1.5-$1.8 billion impairment charge related to content cuts.
The idea of “rotating” content in and out of libraries is nothing new in SVOD, but as profitability becomes paramount, the current cuts seem to be deeper and signal a shift in thinking. Whereas the past has been about “more is more” when building libraries, a “less is more” sentiment appears to be taking over.
The question we explore is whether and to what extent subscribers will react? After all, if the content being cut is lightly viewed, then few people will notice (“if a tree falls in the forrest….”), and presumably the impact would be minimal. But, as Colin notes, there’s an audience for everything, and with SVOD subscribers having been spoiled by a bounty of riches, a perception of reduced choices could hit home.
One thought is that if this content can’t make it on SVOD, perhaps it will find a home on a FAST service. But that might not be an option, as Colin refers to recent discussions indicating FAST providers have become more disciplined given the explosion of free content and their push for profitability as well.
Net, net, as we discuss, there may well be content that isn’t viable on streaming. It’s not unprecedented; there’s lots of content that didn’t make the transition from VHS to digital, because the economics just weren’t there.
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Inside the Stream: Dissecting Netflix’s U.S. Account Sharing Cap, Limitations of Comcast’s NOW TV
Netflix has begun rolling out its account sharing limitations in the U.S.. The rollout effectively puts an end to one of the most-loved features of Netflix subscriptions - the ability to share log-in credentials with family members and others. For years Netflix “looked the other way” on this activity as it sought to bake Netflix usage into as many viewers’ lives as possible.
But all good things come to an end. With subscriber growth slowing as the market matures, Netflix has flipped its approach, linking a subscription to a household, meaning anyone that who doesn’t live under the same roof does not qualify. Those people will need to start an “extra member” account, being offered for $8 per month. We discuss the pricing decision as well, and how it relates to the $8 per month ad-supported plan.
We also discuss the launch of Comcast’s new streaming service NOW TV. Neither of us believes there’s much value and will likely have only limited appeal. We explain why.
At the beginning of the podcast I also mention a new report released by the Goteborg Film Festival, the largest festival in the Nordics, called the “Nostradamus Report: Everything Changing All At Once.” I was among a small group of industry professionals interviewed for the report, which is extremely well-done and comprehensive. It’s free and for anyone looking to get a strong overview of our evolving industry, I highly recommend downloading it.
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Topics: Comcast, Netflix, NOW TV, Podcast