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3 Reasons Hulu's Owners Are Justifiably Bargaining Hard Over Content Rights
Final bidding was scheduled to close last Friday in the Hulu sale process, with the list of potential buyers apparently narrowed to DirecTV, Chernin Group/AT&T and Guggenheim Digital Media. According to various reports (here and here), Hulu's active owners Disney and Fox (Comcast is a passive owner) have been insisting on a number of content licensing related deal points.
Hulu's next-day access to its 3 broadcast owners' hit shows has always been the heart of the company's value
proposition. But a lot has changed in the online video landscape since Hulu was initially formed in March, 2007. As a result, in my view, there are at least 3 key reasons Hulu's owners are justified in bargaining hard over content licensing rights: the importance of TV Everywhere, the growth of well-funded over-the-top licensees and the potential of online video advertising. Following, I delve into each.Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Deals & Financings
Topics: Comcast, Disney, FOX, Hulu
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5 Year-End Video Stories You May Have Missed
Welcome to 2013! If you were mostly checked out over the past 1-2 weeks (or were only paying attention to the fiscal cliff roller coaster), you didn't miss a whole lot in the video world. However, there were 5 items that caught my attention which I briefly describe below:
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Deals & Financings, Devices, TV Everywhere
Topics: Amazon, Disney, ESPN, Intel, Netflix, TV Everywhere, YouTube
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Disney Online Movies' Demise Is Another Blow for Transactional VOD and Digital Lockers
Disney's announcement that it was shutting down its Disney Movies Online service on Dec. 31 is another blow for transactional VOD and digital lockers for movies, two corners of the online video ecosystem that are struggling for traction.
Transactional VOD - renting or buying movies online - has become a tougher sell to consumers in the digital age. Not long ago Hollywood studios' home video divisions boomed as many consumers were keen to buy DVDs and create large collections of movies that they prominently displayed. But while DVD sales have gone off the cliff recently, digital rentals and purchases haven't picked up the slack.Categories: Commerce, FIlms, Studios, Video On Demand
Topics: Disney
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YouTube and Apple Could Be Big Winners if Hulu Loses Network TV Exclusivity
Variety is reporting on an internal Hulu memo indicating that the imminent buyout of Hulu's private equity partner may spark a series of changes, including the possible departure of CEO Jason Kilar and modifications to its content licensing arrangements with its broadcast network TV owners. Kilar has done an excellent job with Hulu, creating a top-notch user experience that is monetized through both ads, and more recently through subscriptions at Hulu Plus. Kilar has more than defied the skeptics who dismissively labeled Hulu "Clown Co." prior to its launch.
Nonetheless, there can be no disputing the fact that Hulu's essential asset from the outset has been exclusive next-day access to programs from Fox and NBC (now Comcast) and more recently, Disney/ABC. Broadcast TV is still by far the most popular programming around, and even though Hulu has added dozens of content partners, including a high-profile deal with Viacom, the reality is that for many Hulu users, it's a destination to catch up on their favorite broadcast programs.Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters
Topics: Apple, Comcast, Disney, FOX, Hulu, YouTube
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Disney, Comcast and Why TV Everywhere Alone Is Not Enough
Yesterday's press release from Disney and Comcast, announcing a comprehensive new ten-year distribution agreement covering over 70 different services is a testament to the idea that improved access to programming is key to maintaining the appeal of the traditional multichannel pay-TV business model. The deal grants Comcast sought-after multi-platform streaming and on-demand rights for 70 different Disney, ABC and ESPN programming services. This is the essential vision of "TV Everywhere" - anywhere/anytime/any device access to the full range of cable and broadcast programming, with the caveat that you have to be an authenticated subscriber to pay-TV services.
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, TV Everywhere
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With New Disney Deal, Is YouTube Poised to Disrupt Online Movie Rentals?
Last Wednesday, just before the Thanksgiving break, YouTube announced a deal with Walt Disney Studios which will make hundreds of new and classic
movies from Disney, Pixar and DreamWorks available for rental. The Disney deal adds to the online movie rentals (or "iVOD" as this category is also known) initiative YouTube announced last May. Between the breadth of movies soon to be available, its aggressive pricing - including $.99 rentals on recently-released blockbusters, its integration in numerous connected devices and of course, its status as the online video market's 800-pound gorilla, YouTube may just have what it takes to disrupt the iVOD market, impacting the broader Hollywood and movie distribution industries.
Categories: Aggregators, FIlms, Studios, Video On Demand
Topics: Amazon, Apple, Disney, iTunes, Netflix, YouTube
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No Surprise, No Deal for Hulu. Here's What Changed.
Last evening, Hulu's owners announced in a short statement that the company will not be sold after all. The news came as no surprise to me. VideoNuze readers will recall that back on June 22, when the first rumors of Hulu potentially being up for sale surfaced, I posted, "Here's Why Any Deal for Hulu is Unlikely."
In that post I explained how Hulu's primary asset - next-day distribution rights to ABC/Fox/NBC programs - would be at the heart of its valuation. The
big challenge with selling Hulu was that its owners would have to pass these rights (albeit likely reformulated) to an unaffiliated and uncontrollable 3rd-party, at the same time as online video delivery has injected massive uncertainty into their businesses. This issue, rather than lower-than-expected bids as some have tritely suggested, is why Hulu's owners ultimately decided to pull Hulu off the block.
Though this was always the central issue in any Hulu deal, I believe 3 things happened in the past 4 months that crystallized the importance for Hulu's owners of maintaining full control of their distribution rights:
Categories: Aggregators, Deals & Financings
Topics: Comcast, Disney, Hulu, News Corp.
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Hulu Sale Process Has Become One Big Leak-a-thon
Late last week when Bloomberg reported that Apple is "considering making a bid" for Hulu, it inevitably ignited a series of follow-on articles and tweetsfrom other outlets, amplifying the perception of seriousness. How meaningful "considering making a bid" actually is nobody but the insiders really know. However, the Apple "news" underscored how the process of selling Hulu has become one big leak-a-thon, with bankers and others involved with the process continuously leaking selective nuggets of information to major media outlets as unnamed sources, no doubt with an eye to shaping how the sale process plays itself out.
In fact, even the decision to sell Hulu has never been officially acknowledged by Hulu itself; rather, the LA Times reported that bankers had been retained. That news was preceded by leaks that Yahoo had approached Hulu about an acquisition, that Hulu was considering selling itself, and that Fox, one of Hulu's owners and key content suppliers had renewed its license deal. In the month since these tidbits were released, there have been numerous other leaks, which I have listed below with links, noting the anonymous references each article cites (apologies to any I may have missed).
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Deals & Financings
Topics: Comcast, Disney, Hulu, News Corp.
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First Fox, Now Disney, Reportedly Renewing Hulu's Distribution Rights
As if this week's intrigue around Hulu putting itself up for sale hasn't been enough, Bloomberg is reporting that Disney has tentatively agreed to renewHulu's distribution rights for ABC programs. The deal is said to mirror another tentative deal, between Fox and Hulu, which Variety reported earlier this week. Both deals are believed to require Hulu carry an increased ad load.
Since company representatives aren't quoted, it's hard to know how legit the renewals are, or whether they're just another leak to support one of the many agendas players involved in Hulu have. Of course, that's how the week began - with the WSJ citing unidentified sources saying that Yahoo had made an overture to acquire Hulu. That was followed by news that Hulu had retained 2 investment banks to explore a sale, and then with the Fox renewal news.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters
Topics: Comcast, Disney, Hulu, News Corp.
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OK, Hulu's for Sale; Can a Deal Get Done and Who are the Frontrunners?
Following yesterday's rumors, the LA Times is now reporting that Hulu has hired two investment banks, Guggenheim Partners and Morgan Stanley, toexplore a potential sale. As I described in Here's Why Any Deal For Hulu Is Unlikely, the banks have their work cut out for them. The critical issue is that Hulu's main asset - exclusive next-day distribution rights to 3 of the 4 broadcast TV networks' programs (ABC, FOX and NBC) - will be at the heart of Hulu's valuation. (Note that just 6 months ago Hulu's plan to go public was undermined by these same rights not being viewed as sufficiently long-term).
To the extent that the rights get diluted (e.g. become non-exclusive, limit monetization opportunities, delay program release windows, reduce the number of programs, etc.), acquirers will ratchet down their valuations accordingly. And this is where the banks' task will become especially complicated; each of the networks' owners (Disney, News Corp. and Comcast) has very different strategic objectives which are further clouded by all the uncertainty that online and mobile video has created. Pinning down if and how they would work with each specific bidder will be quite the Rubik's cube exercise.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Deals & Financings
Topics: Comcast, Disney, Hulu, News Corp.
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Here's Why Any Deal For Hulu Is Unlikely
Late yesterday, the WSJ reported that an unnamed company made an unsolicited offer to acquire Hulu, prompting Hulu's board to consider soliciting other offers. Following up, the LA Times reported that Yahoo is the bidder. However, neither article cited any named sources and so it's unclear how legit any of this is. But even if it is legit, the odds of any Hulu acquisition at this point are actually quite low. Here's why:
Categories: Aggregators, Deals & Financings
Topics: Comcast, Disney, Hulu, News Corp.
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Movie Windows Back in the Spotlight
Movie windows were back in the spotlight this week as Hollywood executives continue to air out their anxiety over digital distribution's impact. In a pair of articles (here and here), Home Media Magazine covered remarks by Disney CFO Jay Rasulo and Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes at the Deutsche Bank conference in Palm Beach, FL. Rasulo put his finger on Hollywood's challenge of how to "re-work release windows to generate incremental revenue, without cannibalizing existing revenue streams and upsetting distribution partners."
However, as Disney knows from its experiment last year of accelerating the DVD release of "Alice in Wonderland," which raised the ire of British theater owners, balancing these objectives is no easy feat. Meanwhile, as "Premium Video-on-Demand," an early window release plan for $30-$40 per movie approaches, theater owners' unhappiness will become even more apparent.
Categories: Aggregators, FIlms, Studios
Topics: Disney, Netflix, Time Warner
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No Surprise, Ivi is Shut Down
Broadcasters got a win this week as a U.S. District Court judge issued a preliminary injunction against Ivi, requiring the service be shut down. The decision comes as little surprise, as Ivi's claim to being a cable system, and therefore entitled to a compulsory license to rebroadcast TV networks, seemed specious from the start. Though Ivi vows to appeal the decision, casting itself as consumers' savior, there's little reason to believe we'll see Ivi - at least in its current form - back any time soon. Moral here: just because the Internet makes it possible to rebroadcast networks, that still doesn't make it legal.
Categories: Broadcasters, Regulation
Topics: CBS, Cox, Disney, FOX, Ivi, MLB, NBC, PBS, WPIX
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Disney Has Religion on Digital, ESPN Is At the Core
Disney held its annual investor day yesterday, and as usual, technology, and the opportunities it creates for the company, was at center stage. Disney
introduced a new initiative called "Disney Studio All Access" providing a central location for consumers to securely access the company's range of content. Though details were sketchy, key to the plan is more flexible consumer ownership and multi-device playback. For paid, downloadable video, that remains the holy grail.
Aside from the company's digital initiatives on the entertainment side of its house, the most important asset that Disney is trying to re-imagine digitally is ESPN. Just yesterday, the company announced a new distribution deal with Verizon, which emphasizes live online streaming of ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU and ESPN Buzzer Beater. The deal is similar to one inked last September with Time Warner Cable, the country's 2nd-largest cable operator. No doubt others will follow.
Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Sports, Telcos
Topics: Disney, ESPN, Time Warner Cable, Verizon
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Jan. 10th
Even though I was very focused this week on the CES "takeaways" series, there was still plenty of news happening in the online and mobile video industries. So as in the past, I'm pleased to offer VideoNuze's end-of-week feature highlighting 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items that we weren't able to cover this week. Enjoy!
Level 3 fights on in Comcast traffic dispute
Level 3 is showing no signs of relenting on its accusations that Comcast is unfairly trying to charge the CDN for Internet traffic it delivers to Comcast's network. In an interview this week, Level 3 said it may use the "Open Internet" provisions of the FCC's new network neutrality rules to press its case. Level 3's challenge is coming at the 11th hour of the FCC's approval process of the Comcast-NBCU deal; it's not really clear if Level 3 is having any impact on slowing the approval, which appears imminent.
Comcast-NBCU deal challenged over online video proposal
Speaking of challenges to the Comcast-NBCU deal, word emerged this week that Disney is voicing concern over the FCC's proposed deal condition that would force Comcast to offer NBC programming to any party that had concluded a deal with one of NBC's competitors for online distribution. The Disney concern appears to be that the condition would have an undue influence on how the online video market evolves and how Disney's own deals would be impacted. While the FCC should be setting conditions to the deal, the Disney concerns highlights how, in a nascent, fast-moving market like online video, government intervention can cause unintended side effects.
YouTube is notching 200 million mobile video views/day
As if on cue with my CES takeaway #3, that mobility is video's next frontier, YouTube revealed this week that it is now delivering 200 million mobile views per day, tripling its volume in 2010. That would equal about 6 billion views per month, which is remarkable. And that amount is poised to increase, as YouTube launched music video site VEVO for Android devices. YouTube clearly sees the revenue potential in all this mobile video activity; it also said that it would append a pre-roll ad in Android views for tens of thousands of content partners.
Google creates video codec dust-up
Google stirred up a hornet's nest this week by announcing that it was dropping support for the widely popular H.264 video codec in its Chrome browser, in favor of its own WebM codec, in an attempt to drive open standards. Though Chrome only represents about 10% market share among browsers (doubling in 2010 though), for these users, it means they'll need to use Flash to view non-WebM ended video. There are a lot of downstream implications of Google's move, but for space reasons, rather than enumerating them here, check out some of the great in-depth coverage the issue has received this week (here, here, here, here).
Netflix usage drives up Canadian broadband bills
An interesting test of Canadian Netflix streaming showed that a user there might have to pay an incremental $12/month under one ISP's consumption cap. That would be more than the $7.99/mo that the Netflix subscription itself costs, leading to potential cord-shaving behavior. This type of upcharge hasn't become an issue here in the U.S. because even ISPs that have caps have set them high relative to most users' current consumption. But if streaming skyrockets as many think it will, and the FCC allows usage-based billing, this could fast become a reality in the U.S. as well.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators, CDNs, Deals & Financings, International, Mobile Video, Regulation, Technology
Topics: Comcast, Disney, FCC, Google, Level 3, NBCU, Netflix, WebM, YouTube
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Starz's 2-Year Results Defy Warnings of "Cord-Shaving"
If you're looking for evidence that the pay-TV industry is imperiled by the rise of over-the-top services that are going to cause subscribers to cut the cord, a good early indicator of such behavior would be whether "cord-shaving," i.e. the reduction of services like premium channels, additional outlets and DVR services, is happening already. But a look at the premium channels Starz and Encore - whose content is fully available for streaming on Netflix - suggests no evidence of cord-shaving is yet occurring.
As the graph below shows, since October, 2008, when Starz announced that Netflix had signed a distribution deal for "Starz Play," total U.S. subscribers to the Starz and Encore channels have actually increased slightly from 49 million to 49.4 million. During this time period there's been relatively little fluctuation, with only a temporary dip in the 2nd half of last year that was probably more related to the channels being temporarily out of their Comcast deal, and therefore losing some of their promotional backing. Further, for the first 9 months of 2010, Starz's revenue was $929 million and cash flow was $305 million, up from the same period in 2008, when revenue was $826 million and cash flow was $220 million.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable Networks
Topics: Disney, Encore, HBO, Netflix, Sony, Starz
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Dec. 5th
Once again I'm pleased to offer VideoNuze's end-of-week feature highlighting and discussing 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items that we weren't able to cover this week. Read them now or take them with you this weekend!
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Broadcasters, Cable TV Operators, Mobile Video, Telcos
Topics: ABC, Disney, eMarketer, Hulu Plus, Netflix, Nielsen, TV Everywhere, Verizon Wireless
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As DVD Sales Wane, Experiments With Movies' Digital Delivery Windows Rise
Yesterday brought more evidence of how digital distribution release windows and promotions are rising as DVD sales wane. First there was news that Disney had teamed up with Wal-mart to allow buyers of the Toy Story 3 DVD to get a bonus digital version of the film playable through the company's recently acquired Vudu digital outlet. That offer was quickly one-upped by Amazon which announced an increase from 300 to 10,000 movies in its "Disc+" program, which provides a digital copy to the user's Amazon VOD account when they purchase a qualifying DVD.
Meanwhile at the Blu-con conference in Beverly Hills, studio executives debated how to best calibrate digital, VOD and DVD distribution. Even emerging practices come with exceptions and debates about results. For example, while VOD has largely gained day-and-date release with DVD, exceptions are still made on a case-by-case basis, such as with Universal's "Despicable Me" which will have its DVD go on sale on Dec 14, but its VOD release not until after Christmas.
Topics: Amazon, Apple, Best Buy, Disney, EPIX, FOX, Netflix, Sony, Starz, Universal, VUDU, Wal-Mart, Warner Bros.
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Time Warner's "Premium Video-on-Demand" Experiment is a Blind Alley
Talk about an initiative that flies in the face of all prevailing sentiment: Time Warner is moving forward on testing a new window for early-release movies on VOD priced at $20-30 apiece in 2011, according to comments its CFO John Martin made yesterday at the Goldman Sachs conference. Never mind the
wrath the idea will stir up among movie theater owners whose traditional windows get cannibalized as a consequence (Disney learned about that with its "Alice in Wonderland" early DVD release experiment last February), the real issue is that pay-TV operators should deem the idea a non-starter.
Typical VOD rental rates of $4-5 already look expensive to consumers compared to Netflix's $9 all-you-can-eat monthly plans and Redbox's $1 DVD rentals. And while there are scenarios where getting a group or family together to watch a movie makes sense, it's getting harder than ever to do so. The reality is that families are atomizing to their individual activities; perusing or playing on Facebook, watching YouTube/Hulu/Netflix/etc., playing with the Wii or Farmville, chatting on Skype, shopping on Amazon, etc. Corralling this crowd and getting them to agree on any one movie is already a challenge; the prospect of paying $20-30 for the pleasure just sets the bar that much higher.
Categories: Cable TV Operators, FIlms, Satellite, Studios, Telcos
Topics: Disney, Netflix, Redbox, Time Warner, Time Warner Cable
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Is Apple Planning to Pair 99-Cent TV Show Rentals With Its $99 iTV?
Bloomberg is reporting that Apple is in "advanced talks" with CBS, Disney and Fox about making available TV programs for 99-cent rental. The programs would be offered within 24 hours of when they aired and once rented, the viewing window would be just 48 hours. It's not clear whether the iTunes rental model would be targeted only to Apple's "i" devices, or if it would be more widely available. If the program deals happen, could it be that Apple is planning to pair availability of 99-cent rentals with the unveiling of its $99 iTV device at its rumored Sept. 7th keynote event?
In my earlier post, "Pondering the (Potential) Impact of Apple's New iTV Device," I speculated that the iTV device would have little impact on the pay-TV ecosystem, since major cable TV networks and pay-TV providers will resist Apple's attempts to reinvent their business models. However, I suggested that Steve Jobs could have a trick or two up his sleeve for the iTV's launch. Sure enough, 99-cent broadcast TV rentals, announced just weeks prior to the Fall TV season kickoff, would be a very good trick indeed.
Categories: Broadcasters, Devices
Topics: Apple, CBS, Disney, FOX
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