Posts for 'AMC'

  • It's Time to Get Real About the Limits of the Multichannel TV Bundle

    One of the big side effects of the current Viacom-DirecTV and Dish-AMC carriage disputes has been a renewed questioning of the durability of the traditional multichannel TV bundle by many industry observers. But while outsiders and consumers may be looking for the pay-TV industry to reinvent the way it packages and prices its services,  attending the NECTA cable industry conference last Friday was yet another reminder of how committed the industry is to preserving the multichannel TV model.

    To be fair, for many households (particularly heavy viewers), multichannel service is optimal and a great value. But consumers aren't monolithic, and it's time for the pay-TV industry to get real about multichannel's limits. Operators' main approach continues to be promoting an entry level tier of digital TV that has grown ever more expensive (moderator Bruce Leichtman pegs the mean monthly spending on multichannel TV service at $78.63, 7% higher than in 2011). This has, in turn, created a well-documented affordability issue for the industry.

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  • Netflix Lays Down Its Bets on "House of Cards"

    Netflix served notice of its official arrival on the Hollywood scene this afternoon, announcing a bold deal for first-run rights to the new David Fincher directed TV series, "House of Cards," starring Kevin Spacey. Whereas the company has built a base of 20 million plus subscribers and a streaming franchise largely on catalog movies and TV series, the first-run deal signals that the company will not rest on its successful content acquisition strategy.

    In my analysis of the rumored deal (as it stood just a couple days ago), I pointed to three ways that a first-run deal for "House of Cards" contrasted with Netflix's traditional approach. Having discussed the deal with a Netflix spokesman this afternoon, and having read other interviews and analysis, this afternoon, following are updates on those three items:

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  • A Netflix Deal For "House of Cards" Would Be a Big Shift In Its Strategy

    A report late yesterday by Deadline.com, that Netflix is potentially going to bid $100 million to stream/broadcast the new David Fincher/Kevin Spacey TV series "House of Cards" has been ricocheting around the Internet like a pinball since. Deadline also reported that Netflix is bidding against HBO and AMC and could take the unusual step of not even piloting the series before making this huge financial commitment. As a close observer of Netflix's rise over the past several years, the move would break with several key tenets of the company's success formula. Though I've learned to never say never, following are a few Netflix strategies that would be changed with a deal for "House of Cards":

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  • Cable's Original Programs Should Be A Bulwark Against Cord-Cutting

    A WSJ article today, "TV's Alternate Universe," about the proliferation and inventiveness of basic cable programs, provides an unintentional reminder of the value these shows have as a bulwark against cord-cutting. The article points out that basic networks will spend $23 billion this year on 1,462 originals, up from $14 billion on 863 shows just 5 years ago. The fact that these shows are both finding an audience and that they are virtually unavailable for free online makes them highly strategic assets as the pay-TV industry is increasingly buffeted by over-the-top video competition.

    Two years ago, in "Cutting the Cord on Cable: For Most of Us It's Not Happening Any Time Soon," I argued that there are 2 key reasons mass-scale cord-cutting was unlikely, at least in the short term: first, the difficulty of watching online-delivered video on TVs (instead of on computers) limited its appeal as a substitute for pay-TV service for mainstream consumers,  and second, the loss of numerous popular cable entertainment programs resulting from cord-cutting would give many people pause.

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  • 4 Items Worth Noting (Hulu, TiVo-Emmys, GAP-VMIX, Long Tail) for Sept 21st Week

    Following are 4 news items worth noting from the week of Sept. 21st:

    1. Bashing Hulu gains steam - what's going on here? - These days everyone seems to want bash Hulu and its pure ad-supported business model for premium content. Last week it was Soleil Securities releasing a report that Hulu costs its owners $920 per viewer in advertising when they shift their viewership. This week, it was a panel of industry executives turn. Then a leaked email from CBS's Quincy Smith showed his dissatisfaction with Hulu, and interest in trying to prove it is the cause of its parent networks' ratings declines.

    What's happening here is that the world is waking up to the fact that although Hulu's user experience is world-class, its ad model implementation is simply too light to be sustainable. I wrote about this a year ago in "Broadcast Networks' Use of Broadband Video is Accelerating Demise of their Business Model," following up in May with "OK, Hulu Now Has ABC. But When Will it Prove Its Business Model?" Content executives are finally realizing that it is still too early to put long form premium quality video online for free. Doing so spoils viewers and reinforces their expectation that the Internet is a free-only medium. When TV Everywhere soon reasserts the superiority of hybrid pay/ad models, ad-only long-form sites are going to get squeezed. At VideoSchmooze on Oct 13th, we have Hulu's first CEO George Kliavkoff on our panel; it's going to be a great opportunity to understand Hulu's model and dig further into this whole issue.

    2. TiVo data on ad-skipping for Emmy-winning programs should have TV industry alarmed - As if ad-skipping in general wasn't already a "hair-on-fire" problem for TV executives, research TiVo released this week on ad-skipping behavior specifically for Emmy-winning programs should have the industry on DEFCON 1 alert. Using data from its "Stop | Watch" ratings service, TiVo found that audiences for the winning programs in the 5 top Emmy categories - Outstanding Comedy Series, Drama Series, Animated Program, Reality-Competition and Variety/Music/Comedy Series - all show heavier than average (for their genre) time-shifting. The same pattern is true for ad-skipping; the only exception is "30 Rock" (winner of Outstanding Comedy Series) which performs slightly better than its genre average.

    The numbers for AMC's "Mad Men" (winner of Outstanding Drama Series), are particularly eye-opening: 85% of the TiVo research panel's viewers time-shifted, and of those, 83% ad-skipped. (Note as an avid Mad Men viewer, I've been doing both since the show's premiere episode. It's unimaginable to me to watch the show at its appointed time, and with the ads.) The data means that even when TV execs produce a critical winner, their ability to effectively monetize it is under siege. How long will BMW sign up to be Mad Men's premier sponsor with research like this? TiVo's time-shifting data shows why network executives have to get the online ad model right. When TV Everywhere launches it will cater to massive latent interest in on-demand access by viewers; it is essential these views be better monetized than Hulu, for example, is doing today.

    3. Radio stations push into online video as GAP Broadcasting launches with VMIX - Lacking its own video, the radio industry has been a little bit of the odd man out in the online video revolution. Some of the industry's bigger players like Clear Channel have jumped in, but there hasn't been a lot of momentum, especially with the ad downturn. But this week GAP Broadcasting, owner of 116 stations in mostly smaller markets announced a partnership with video platform and content provider VMIX. I talked to VMIX CEO Mike Glickenhaus who reported that radio stations are starting to get on board. For GAP, VMIX is providing an online video platform, premium content from hundreds of licensed partners, user-generated video tools and sales training, among other things. GAP's goal is to be a "total audience engagement platform" not just a radio station. Sounds right, but there's lots of hard work ahead.

    4. So is there a "Long Tail" or isn't there? Ever since Chris Anderson's book "The Long Tail" appeared in 2006 there have been researchers challenging his theory which asserts that infinite shelf space drives customer demand into the niches. The latest attempt is by 2 Wharton professors, who, using Netflix data, observe that the Long Tail effect is not ironclad. Sometimes it's present, sometimes it's not. Anderson disputes their findings. The argument boils down to the definitions of the "head" and "tail" of the markets being studied. Anderson defines them in absolute terms (say the top 100 products), whereas the Wharton team defines them in terms of percentages (the top 1 %).

    I've been fascinated with the Long Tail concept since the beginning, as it potentially represents a continued evolution of video choice; over-the-air broadcasting allowed for 3 channels originally, cable then allowed for 30, 50, 500, now broadband creates infinite shelf space. Independent online video producers and their investors have bet on the Long Tail effect working for them to drive viewership beyond broadcast and cable. With Nielsen reporting hours of TV viewership holding steady, we haven't yet seen cannibalization. However, with Nielsen, comScore and others reporting online video consumption surging, audiences may be carving out time from other activities to go online and watch.

    Enjoy your weekends! There will be no VideoNuze on Monday as I'll be observing Yom Kippur.

     
  • 4 News Items Worth Noting from the Week of July 20th

    Following are 4 news items worth noting from the week of July 20th:

    Apple reports blowout iPhone sales in Q2, continuing to drive market - It was another record quarter, as Apple reported selling 5.2 million iPhones, bringing to 21.4 the total sold to date. This despite acknowledging temporary shortages during the quarter. The iPhone continues to revolutionize the mobile market, and from my standpoint is the key catalyst for both recording and consumption of mobile video. This market is poised for significant growth as new smartphones hit the market along with fixed monthly data plans. Apps like MLB.com At Bat 2009, which offers live streams of games, are certain to be hits and emulated widely.

    8 minute video of Amazon's Jeff Bezos discussing lessons learned and Zappos acquisition - You couldn't miss news this week of Amazon acquiring Zappos for around $900M, its largest deal ever. Interestingly, Amazon posted a video on YouTube of Bezos discussing the deal, but not until he walked through several maxims of Amazon's success (obsess over customers, think long term, etc.). The video is extremely informal, with Bezos flipping hand-scrawled notes on an easel and improvising funny anecdotes. It has a slightly random feel (until he gets to the Zappos part, you start to wonder, what's the point of all this?), but I give Amazon and Bezos lots of credit for using video in a totally new way to communicate with stakeholders. I'd love to see more CEOs do the same.

    Is Disney CEO Bob Iger serious about creating a subscription site for its online video? This week at Fortune's Brainstorm conference, Iger floated the idea that Disney will offer movies, TV shows and games for paying subscribers. The timing seems more than coincidental as Comcast gears up for its On Demand Online trial. Is Iger serious about this, or is it a head fake from Disney so it can try to negotiate incremental payments from Comcast and others seeking to distribute Disney content online? It's hard to tell, but I'd be curious to see what Disney has in mind for its possible subscription service. Consumers hate the idea of paying twice for anything (even paying once is not so popular), so if Disney is somehow going to create another window where they charge for access to content that's still on, or was recently on cable, that would be an awkward model.

    "Mad Men" coming to Comcast's On Demand Online trial - Speaking of the Comcast trial, I was thrilled to hear from David Evans, SVP of Broadband at Rainbow Media (owners of AMC, the network behind Mad Men) at yesterday's CTAM Teleseminar that the show will be included in Comcast's trial and presumably in rollout. David is very bullish on online distribution and the larger TV Everywhere concept, though cautioned that there are many rights-related issues still hanging out there. I'm a huge Mad Men fan (whose new season starts on Aug 16th) and the idea that I don't have to worry about recording each episode or managing space on my DVR, and that I can watch remotely when I'm on the road, all underscore TV Everywhere's value.

     
  • Cable TV Networks are Launching Original Broadband-Only Webisodes

    Over the past couple months I've noticed a trend toward cable TV networks producing short webisode series solely for broadband distribution. It's still quite early, but the trend offers some insights into these networks' programming strategies.

    To date most cable networks have put a lot of promotional clips online and a few have even put some full length programs up as well. But for the most part cable networks have been constrained in how much original content they distribute online due to their lucrative monthly affiliate deals with cable/telco/satellite operators (though this too may change with Comcast and TWC pursuing online distribution plans).

    I've noticed these webisodes announced just in the last couple of months:

    (No doubt there are others as well, so apologies to those I may have missed)

    The webisode format breaks the traditional limitation of having a finite 24 hours/day of "shelf space" for networks to program. I think what's happening here is that cable networks are experimenting with the low-cost webisode format both to reach online users and also to see what might graduate to on-air. The webisodes allow them to bridge their brands between traditional TV and broadband to see what sticks. And some webisodes may even making money for their networks already. "Off Track" for example is showcased in an Armor All "Owner Center" sponsored environment.

    CNN's Freshman Year is a good example of how one network is pushing the envelope. In the series, CNN has given Flip video cameras to 2 new congressmen, who use them to show what life is really like on and off Capitol Hill (it's not glamorous that's for sure). The concept is a natural extension for CNN's politically-interested audience, and capitalizes on the tailwind of the '08 election cycle. While the production values are well below what's typically seen on-air, there's something compellingly authentic (and yes voyeuristic) about the wobbly, poorly framed footage offered up by the congressmen. For sure you come away with a far better sense of what these guys' lives are like than you would from a slickly-produced 1 hour special.

     

    All of the 7-13 minute episodes have pre and post rolls, from brands like IBM and Sprint. I've noticed CNN starting to promote the series through on-air spots as well, which is a key webisode audience-building all the networks have. However, CNN really needs to make the series more visible on the web site. Aside from a periodic ad, a site visitor wouldn't know the series existed or how to find it. This is a common problem with the other networks' sites as well.

    It's way too early to know how sticky the webisode concept will be for cable TV networks, but on the surface I think it offers a lot of opportunity. Cable networks are not immune from audience fragmentation and consumers' changing expectations. Finding ways to reinforce viewer loyalty and generate additional revenues is a must.

    What do you think? Post a comment now.

     
  • Ritz-Carlton's Short Films: Sleek, But Successful?

    A recent marketing campaign from Ritz-Carlton and American Express featuring three short original online films serves as a reminder to brands - and others - that even great content needs strong promotion for it to fully succeed. Let me explain.

    Back in Nov '07, a long WSJ article entitled, "Ritz-Carlton Web Films Play Down its Ritzy Image" caught my eye. The article provided the backstory of the famed luxury hotelier Ritz-Carlton's innovative marketing gambit to pitch its brand to younger guests with three 10 minute films from hot young director Shyam Madiraju. The films were especially noteworthy because they portrayed younger guests in somewhat risque situations a clear break from Ritz's staid tradition.

    At the time I remember thinking broadband was well-suited to Ritz's challenge; broadband would allow Ritz to go well beyond what it could convey in 30 second TV spots, not to mention print ads. By gaining such prominent coverage in the WSJ, the campaign was off to a very good start. (Whoever Ritz's PR firm was, they more than earned their keep that day!)

    I made a mental note to keep an eye out for promotions for the films. Yet months passed and I never saw any. While I'll readily concede I may have missed them, if I was looking for them and didn't see them, that suggests a pretty low likelihood that people who weren't on the lookout saw them. The WSJ article had indicated that the films would be promoted on Yahoo, MSN, YouTube, all sites I frequent, yet I never saw any promotions there. I also expected email notifications, given that I've stayed at Ritz locations and they no doubt had my email address (and if they didn't, Marriott, which owns Ritz, and where I've stayed repeatedly, certainly does). In addition, I've been an Amex cardholder for years and I get promotions from them all the time.

    I finally received my first email a couple of weeks ago with the subject line "The Ritz-Carlton Films presents 'Heads or Tails' and Exclusive Offers." This was the third of the three short films, which debuted on June 1st. I clicked through watched it (and the previous two) and thought they were all expertly done. They were sleek and provocative, luxuriously set at Ritz properties and subtly incorporated the Amex card in each. I found a few nits (e.g. why no full screen option?), but from the standpoint of conveying a hipper image while not alienating traditional guests, I think the films all hit the mark.

     

    So from a content perspective, it looks like Ritz succeeded. My concern is whether a lot of people were exposed to the campaign and actually saw the films. I don't have the data to back this up, but my "experience of one" suggests that Ritz's promotional efforts were under-powered. I'm not that surprised; given this is new territory for brands as they essentially try to figure out how to "market a marketing campaign."

    My advice is for brands to heed what Hollywood learned a long time ago: even great films and TV programs need great marketing to match (a recent example is the marketing blitz AMC is putting behind the premiere of "Mad Men" for its upcoming second season). As brands like Ritz create their own films and branded entertainment experiences, they need to remember that producing compelling content is just the starting point of accomplishing their marketing objectives.

    What do you think? Post a comment now!

     
  • Staying in Synch with Broadband Users

    Yesterday's interview with market researcher Bruce Leichtman highlighted a key point in his latest study: that broadband video is most heavily adopted by 18-34 year old males. That point has been supported by research from other firms and is one of the key drivers behind a lot of the new broadband-only video programming that's sprouted up in the past couple of years.

    A clear implication of this finding is that current video providers that target 18-34 males better be aggressively pursuing broadband video offerings if they want to stay competitive in this new media landscape.

    But less clear is whether video providers that don't primarily target 18-34 males, or maybe have them as secondary audiences, should also be investing in this new medium in order to stay in synch with broadband users. Though other age groups and demos are also adopting broadband video, they are clearly less fervent, at least for now. In a world with finite resources, should these other video producers not worry so much about broadband video and instead stay mainly focused on their traditional approaches? Or should they invest in the broadband medium as well, even if their true target audiences may be smaller for now? I think they should do the latter, for the following 3 reasons:

    1. Eventually broadband video usage will deeply penetrate all age groups. This is a macro trend that all programmers need to be in synch with. Previous technology adoption patterns show that what starts with young, and often male, early adopters, eventually spreads out to other groups as well. There's no putting the broadband video genie back in the bottle. Three-to-five years from now, virtually all Internet users will view video as just another routine application, alongside email, search, commerce, etc. Today's video providers need to position themselves properly.

    2. Cultivating younger audiences is critically important. Marketing types always emphasize how important it is to cultivate younger audiences. Brand choices and loyalties are developed early, and it is more difficult down the road to influence these. Look around and see brands that once targeted somewhat older, and wealthier, segments but which now also try to target the young - Heineken, BMW and Tiffany to name a few.

    The fact is that young people have energy, enthusiasm, spending power and a strong desire to promote their favorite brands to cohorts. So even video providers need that may not normally skew young need to figure out how to have some appeal to this group, because they will be key drivers of the brand's strength down the road. In fact this is what a number of cable networks, like Lifetime, AMC and Food Network been doing in recent years. Though they didn't originally target younger audiences, they began cultivating them through programming choices and marketing campaigns. They are all succeeding.

    3. Now is the time to learn about broadband video. Given the above two reasons, it is urgent that video producers targeting all age groups and demos start their learning process now. Finding pockets of current heavy users to appeal to is the key challenge. As a new medium, broadband has its own set of capabilities well beyond being just another pipe to funnel current programming. Understanding these opportunities will not happen overnight. No video producer should wake up one day 3 years from now, when a healthy percentage of its viewers are spending substantial time on broadband, and realize they didn't cultivate the knowledge and skill sets to succeed in this new medium.

    Video producers across the spectrum are grappling with how to attract and retain audiences in the broadband and on-demand era. Though 18-34 year old males are today's heaviest users, that will change over time. All video providers need to stay in synch with this.

    What do you think? Post a comment and let us all know!

     
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