Podcasts

I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 133rd edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for May 18, 2012. This week's topic: Dish Network's new "Auto Hop" feature, which automatically skips ads in DVR-recorded broadcast TV.

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 132nd edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for May 11, 2012. This week's topic is content piracy and to dig into it we're joined by a guest, Stuart Rosove, VP of Marketing at Irdeto, a software security provider.

We kickoff the discussion with Colin and Stuart each sharing some data on how extensive piracy is and what flavors it comes in. As Stuart explains, there's a huge range of piracy activity from criminals who profit from piracy to hackers motivated by bragging rights to casual viewers like college students who don't think they're doing any harm, to frustrated consumers who can't find legitimate access to confused consumers who aren't even aware they're doing something illegal.

To get a sense of how critical the piracy issue is, Forbes has written that HBO's hit show "Game of Thrones" is on track to become the most-pirated show of 2012, reaching a staggering 2.5 million illegal downloads per day. It's a very complicated landscape, which will become even more so as connected devices proliferate. Stuart also shares information about how Irdeto is helping content companies as many pirates as possible to paying customers.

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 131st edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for May 4, 2012. This week Colin and I discuss how fundamental battle lines have been drawn between the traditional TV ecosystem vs. the numerous digital outlets that are launching online-only original programs. To be more specific, the former group seems intent on erecting ever-higher paywalls to access its programs, which is in turn opening up a gigantic opportunity for free, ad-supported programs to be provided by the latter group. How this battle unfolds will have far-reaching and profound implications for everyone involved.

For the traditional TV ecosystem, there appear to be two core drivers at work; first, the desire by broadcast TV networks to morph themselves into cable TV networks, and second, the role that TV Everywhere is taking on as a foundation of paywall economics.

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Something new for the 130th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast - video! That's right, this week found Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, and me at the NABShow in Las Vegas, so we recorded a video for the first time (for you audiophiles, there's still a link to the audio below, and it's still in iTunes as well). For this week's edition, we discuss what hit our radar at the NABShow. Enjoy!

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 129th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for April 13, 2012. These days it can be overwhelming to keep up with the amount of data concerning change in the video landscape. In an effort to demystify things a bit, today Colin and I discuss several interesting data points that have recently hit our radar, which tangibly underscore how viewers' behaviors and expectations are shifting. We see a narrative forming from the data and discuss its implications for the video and pay-TV industries.

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 128th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for April 6, 2012. First up this week we discuss another angle of last week's Xbox video launch - whether Comcast will reverse itself and authenticate HBO GO for its subscribers (as Netflix CEO Reed Hastings wrote openly on Facebook asking Comcast to do). Then we discuss the downturn in March Madness online traffic and the effect of Turner's new paywall.

Last week when Xbox launched a number of new video apps including Comcast's Xfinity, HBO GO and MLB.tv, Comcast made a decision not to authenticate HBO GO for its own subscribers with Xboxes, thereby forcing them to settle for HBO content that's available within its own Xfinity app. As Colin points out, that was a continuation of Comcast's (and other pay-TV operators') policy of not authenticating the HBO GO app for its subscribers using Roku.

A vocal group of Comcast/HBO subscribers with Xbox complained, with Hastings's post getting the most attention. This week, the NY Times reported that Comcast might reverse itself and authenticate HBO GO after all. It's confusing stuff, and Colin and I do our best to explain what might be going on behind the scenes with the balance of power between cable operators and cable networks.

We then discuss news that daily March Madness traffic was down 10% year-over-year, likely attributable to Turner introducing a $3.99 app to view the games for which it had broadcast rights (CBS games were still available online for free). There was a paywall up until a few years ago, when the full tournament went free online, causing an explosion of traffic and ad revenue. Colin and I interpret the new data and its broader implications for TV Everywhere.

(For everyone celebrating holidays, enjoy your weekend!)

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 127th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Mar. 30, 2012. First up this week we discuss Comcast's controversial assertion that streams from its Xfinity app running on Xbox won't count against subscribers' 250 gb/month data cap because they're running on Comcast's "private network" (note: Comcast has deleted "private network" references in its Xbox FAQ).

Colin argues strongly that this is an inappropriate policy in that it essentially creates a "fast lane" for Comcast's own traffic, while disadvantaging other video streams - basically the same concern raised by net neutrality advocates. Colin makes compelling points about the shared nature of broadband access and the longer-term implications of a "private network" model. For my part, I'm still curious the use case for the Xfinity Xbox app; unless it's used for TVs where a set-top box isn't present, it feels somewhat redundant to what's already available via Comcast's VOD.

Next we turn our attention to this week's mega-deal for the Dodgers. As I wrote yesterday, I think the deal will lead to even higher Regional Sports Network licensing fees, which in turn means even higher subsidies by non-sports fans to make the deal work. This is a problem throughout the pay-TV world, and the new Dodgers owners are betting non-fans will continue to pay ever-higher rates for sports they don't watch. Colin and I discuss the implications for over-the-top services and the pay-TV multichannel bundle.

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 126th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Mar. 23, 2012. This week finds Colin in London, providing him an even better perspective on our first topic this week, Sky's new over-the-top service called NOW TV, which it will launch this summer. Colin is bullish on NOW TV and likes the lessons it provides for U.S. pay-TV operators.

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 125th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Mar. 16, 2012. This week finds Colin on business in Brazil, and he's been doing some sleuthing on how Netflix's rollout is going there. Back on the domestic front, we also discuss Intel's rumored TV plans and the latest on Aereo's rollout.

Colin reports that anecdotal feedback on Netflix's content selection in Brazil is underwhelming as it is perceived as mostly older titles. He raises the critical question of whether Netflix was wise in choosing not to partner with any established players which might have brought content as well as an understanding of local conditions. Colin points out that the landscape is very different in Brazil vs. the U.S., with pay-TV penetration of just 20% and over-the-air broadcast viewing dominant. All that said, Colin has heard that Netflix is advertising heavily to build its brand. And Brazil is of course an enormous market, representing big long-term opportunities.

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 124th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Mar. 9, 2012. In this week's podcast we discuss Apple and its TV ambitions.

This past Wednesday Apple announced a few minor feature updates to its $99 Apple TV device. While the device continues to improve, in my view it still does not come close to representing Apple's ultimate ambitions in the living room. I think it's inevitable that Apple will introduce some type of "television" (timing TBD) and that when it does, it will be both a design and an experience breakthrough. My caveat here is that Apple needs quality content to support the device, and what it will be able to offer is still unclear. Stirring the pot, in the past week the NY Post reported that Apple is negotiating for rights to turn channels into apps, and Steve Jobs's biographer said that he purposely left out of his book details of what Jobs thought Apple TV should be.

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 123rd edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Mar. 2, 2012. This week's podcast has a different format; instead of discussing one topic in depth, we touch on three areas - the new lawsuit against Aereo, Netflix's deal with Starz ending (and whether the "flix" is coming out of Netflix) and UltraViolet's strategy of using discs to drive adoption.

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 122nd edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Feb. 24, 2012. In this week's podcast we evaluate Comcast's new subscription video-on-demand service, Xfinity Streampix. Despite many of the headlines this week characterizing Streampix as a "Netflix-killer," neither Colin nor I see it that way (at least for now).

However, we don't necessarily agree on what Streampix's real purpose is. Colin sees it as more of an upsell premium product for Comcast to help drive up its ARPU, while expanding its TV Everywhere capabilities. On the other hand, I see Streampix as helping give Comcast greater packaging and pricing flexibility in order to address existing and prospective subscribers for whom the typical multichannel bundle might not fit.

In truth, Streampix is probably both. But for now, given its paucity of content, we agree that it's unlikely to get a whole lot of traction anyway. That may be ok, as I continue to see it as really more of a placeholder than anything else. Whether it becomes more over time, ultimately challenging Netflix and others, is yet to be seen.

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(apologies in advance, the connection quality wavers toward the end of the podcast)

I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 121st edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Feb. 17, 2012. In this week's podcast we puzzle through Aereo - a new broadcast TV over IP / DVR-in-the-cloud provider, which this week announced a $20.5 million financing led by IAC's Barry Diller, plus a March 14th launch date in New York City.

I happened to be in NYC this week, and aside from "Linsanity," Aereo seemed to be the hottest topic around. But talk about a lack of consensus on its prospects! Some believe Aereo is going to be a major disruptor to the existing broadcast and pay-TV ecosystem, while others see it as a total non-starter, whether because broadcasters will succeed in shutting it down or because consumers won't be compelled by its proposition.

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 120th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Feb. 10, 2012. In this week's podcast we discuss Nielsen's new Cross-Platform Report for Q3 2011 and its implications for the broader TV industry.

Among the key findings in the report are that pay-TV households dropped slightly overall from Q3 '10 to Q3 '11, with cable homes decreasing to the benefit of telco and satellite. This has been happening for years as newer providers enter the market with aggressive offers. Nielsen also found that the number of "broadcast-only" with broadband homes increased significantly. In addition, a NY Times analysis of Nielsen data found that for viewers in the 12-34 age range, TV viewership per day decreased from Q3 '10 to Q3 '11 by six to nine minutes per day.

This and other Nielsen data underscore what we all know intuitively and from our personal experiences and anecdotes: individual behaviors are changing as new video alternatives and other choices for how we spend time (e.g. social media, video games, etc.) have exploded. All of this contributes to changing perceptions of pay-TV's value. Beyond Nielsen, Colin cites TDG's own data about Netflix users' interest in downgrading their pay-TV service, which jumped from 16% in 2010 to 32% in 2011. Colin believes this shows that for some, online is viewed as a bona fide alternative to pay-TV. Between the Nielsen and TDG data, it's clear that the TV and video landscape is in the early stage of significant change.

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 119th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Feb. 3, 2012. In this week's podcast we discuss YouTube's original channels strategy.

As I wrote earlier this week, I think YouTube's approach is quite compelling, and although it's still very early, the disruptive potential is high. In a sense I see YouTube as trying to "out-cable cable," by introducing niche and micro-niche programming that leverage its low-cost, interactive distribution platform reaching a global audience of 800 million viewers each month. It's awfully tempting for incumbent broadcasters and cable networks to dismiss the efforts as lower quality and therefore not competitive, but history shows things that start modestly often have a way of improving dramatically (take ESPN's evolution as one great example).

Colin zeroes in on YouTube's interactive attributes and the favorable economics of online video delivery as being a key differentiators from today's TV landscape. As one who worked on so called interactive TV (or "ITV") efforts in its early days, Colin has a great perspective on this. He thinks YouTube's programming can be distinctive because, by definition, it can capitalize on its inherent connected Internet platform. That, combined with YouTube's native engaged user base, gives YouTube a whole new opportunity to change viewing experiences. Colin highlights a recent TDG survey of iPad users that revealed YouTube as the most used app (by 64% of users), which surpassed even iTunes (53% of users).

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Note, this week YouTube head Salar Kamangar did a great on-stage interview with Peter Kafka at the D: Dive Into Media conference where he articulated YouTube's strategy. And for another perspective on YouTube's strength, see this fascinating article about RayWJ, a YouTube-only comedian who's reportedly pulling in $1 million a year from his channel.

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 118th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Jan. 27, 2012. In this week's podcast we discuss Netflix's Q4 '11 results, which were released this past Wed. afternoon.

The good news is that the results showed some glimmers of improvement in Netflix's business, but as I explained yesterday's post, net subscribers continued to be adversely affected by last summer's Qwikster and price increase decisions. The group showing the most attrition is the "hybrid" DVD/streaming U.S. subscribers who saw their rates increase by up to 60%. Colin and I dig into why this group is in fact still so vital to Netflix's success, and the risks posed by the company's strategy of pursuing streaming all out.

Colin also shares recent research TDG has done indicating that for those Netflix streaming subscribers retaining the service, satisfaction is running very high. That, combined with Netflix's own announcement that 2 billion hours of streaming content were consumed in Q4 '11, are encouraging indicators that the streaming service is resonating. Still, the big looming question for 2012 is how robust net U.S. subscriber growth will be. Listen in to learn more!

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 117th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Jan. 20, 2012. In this week's podcast we dig into UltraViolet (UV), the digital library/format recently launched to enable consumers with multi-device streaming access to Hollywood movies.

It's still early days for UV, but there have been some hiccups in the rollout, with numerous longer-term challenges looming as we detail. Still, UV is a critical initiative to help studios reinvigorate the sell-through model that has declined in the wake of lower-cost options like Netflix, Redbox, Amazon, etc. and so there are strong incentives to make it successful. We also review new UV messaging that's rolling out and what's ahead for 2012. Listen in to learn more!

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