VideoNuze Posts

In last Friday's "4 Items Worth Noting..." post, I made a quick reference to the Megawoosh Waterslide video - what I thought was a genuine user-generated video of a German man barreling down a huge waterslide into a small pool. It turns out that I, along with many others, got punked. It's a fake, created through effects by a German marketing firm and sponsored by Microsoft Office. If you want all the details, NewTeeVee has a great write-up.

The waterslide incident contrasts with a second incident that happened to me just two weeks earlier. Taken together, I think the two represent a fascinating, yet unexplored side-effect of the broadband video revolution that all of us as human beings are currently experiencing. Let me explain what I mean.

In July 31st VideoNuze Report podcast, Daisy Whitney was very excited to describe the "JK Wedding March" viral video phenomenon (19 million + views to date) and how YouTube was publicizing on its blog that it was generating exceptional click-throughs and revenue for the video's background song "Forever" by Chris Brown through overlay ads.

When I quickly watched the video, my internal "authenticity detector" went off loudly as I wondered whether the wedding march was authentic or simply staged to generated buzz and sales for the song. I expressed this skepticism to Daisy on the podcast, and it wasn't until I did further research, and found the young Minnesota wedding couple interviewed on the "Today" show that my suspicions were allayed.

Meanwhile, when I quickly watched the Megawoosh video I thought, hey, it's an outlandish stunt. I wondered about the engineering involved to pull it off, but my authenticity meter remained relatively quiet.

Here's what I think the difference is: In the JK Wedding March I saw an obvious commercial opportunity that made me suspicious, while with the Megawoosh slide I did not see such opportunities so I was more willing to accept it as genuine. My authenticity lens has been shaped by having watched many broadband videos over the years where brands were involved in subtle and clever ways that I've become very aware. On the flip side, I've seen so many incredible user-generated stunts, that I've become conditioned to thinking that just maybe, anything is possible to pull off and some people's willingness to risk injury and death in the name of fleeting celebrity is unlimited.

Please join me for a complimentary webinar thePlatform is hosting next Tues, Aug. 18th at 10 am PT / 1pm ET, "How Broadband Video Players Can Align Business Requirements and User Experience." I'll be moderating a discussion with the AP's Bill Burke, Global Director Online Video, PBS Interactive's Joshua Kinberg, Director, Video Product Management, and thePlatform's Marty Roberts, VP of Marketing.

The webinar will be highly interactive and will focus on how to use player technologies to meet online video business requirements while also providing outstanding user experiences. AP and PBS have extensive affiliate networks, making them both aggregators of online video as well as producers themselves. As a result they've faced key challenges in managing and presenting their video in a compelling, up-to-date manner. Bill and Joshua will share their best practices, and Marty will provide a broader perspective from thePlatform's dozens of customers.

Click here to learn more and for complimentary registration

Roku has announced this morning that MLB.TV Premium subscribers will now be able to access the service on their TVs via the $99 Roku video player. MLB.TV joins Netflix, Amazon, and blip.tv programs already accessible via Roku. According to Brian Jaquet, Roku's director of corporate communications, who I spoke to last week, dozens of other partners will be added to the service by the end of '09. The MLB.TV integration is obviously an exciting value proposition for its subscribers and for Roku adds live programming for the first time.

To go a level deeper than the headlines about the deal that you're likely reading elsewhere this morning, here are 3 key takeaways:

1. Roku's textbook "Crossing the Chasm" marketing strategy could make it a big-time winner - I've long said that as remarkable as the growth in broadband viewership has been over the past few years, what's more remarkable is that virtually all of this viewership has occurred not on consumers' primary viewing device - the TV - but rather on computers. As such, the last and most significant catalyst in broadband video's evolution and for its disruptive power to be realized is broadband connections bridging to the TV, for the masses.

The problem is that while avid market watchers and participants like you and me know what the above buzzword gobbledygook means, average consumers not only don't know, but they don't care. For technology marketers seeking to penetrate mainstream buyers, this is in fact the central challenge described in Geoffrey Moore's classic book, "Crossing the Chasm" (which I highly recommend if you want to understand the technology product marketing further). I have a lot of respect for Roku because it understands all of this and because it is following a textbook chasm-crossing marketing strategy tailored to the pragmatist mindset of its target market.

Roku's strategy reads right out of Moore's book: piggybacking off popular existing brands (Netflix, MLB, etc.), focusing on the "whole product," pursuing niche applications first and presenting its benefits "face-forward" as Moore says (e.g. see Roku's home page that blares "50,000+ videos to watch. INSTANTLY"). By doing all of the above and also pricing low ($99) and keeping the product radically simple, Roku is speaking strongly to its prospects and minimizing their purchase risk (a critical barrier in mainstream technology adoption). All of this means Roku could be a big-time winner in the convergence race.

2. Rapid technology changes are driving broadband video innovation - I asked Brian last week if Roku has any plans to add a hard drive to the box, which would allow both storage/downloading and possibly an ability to cache content for higher-quality delivery. His response, that "we believe streaming is robust enough to accomplish all of our objectives," dramatically illustrated for me how quick technology change is in the broadband market. I say this because just 6 short years ago, I consulted with Maven Networks, whose whole original value proposition was built around a desktop app for video downloading. The point of it was to work around streaming limitations to offer content providers and users a breakthrough experience. Streaming technology advances have quickly and completely eradicated Maven's whole initial reason for being.

This example illustrates how broadband market participants must never accept today's technologies as the defining parameters of future services (or as a wise CTO mentor of mine used to say, "Never fight technology progress. It's relentless and it will always win."). I try to constantly remind clients and other industry colleagues that it is crucial to understand the strands of technology progress - where key challenges lay, how quickly they might be resolved, what motivations are at work in fueling or stymying progress. What Roku is doing today would have been impossible just 5 years ago. The same goes for YouTube, the iPhone, etc, etc. To succeed in broadband it is crucial to acknowledge current technology limitations, but simultaneously look beyond them and stay aligned with technology's relentless progress.

3. A major video industry PR battle for consumers' hearts and minds is about to explode - As players like Roku bring well-loved brands like Netflix, Amazon and MLB to the TV, the degree of consumer awareness and interest in convergence or "over-the-top" services is going to grow considerably. It will be increasingly common to go to a cocktail party and hear 2 neighbors carry on about how cool it was to watch this show, or that game, or this movie, all without their incumbent video service provider involved. To be sure "cord-cutting" is not going to skyrocket any time soon, but what is going to happen is the kind of buzz-building that can lay the groundwork for major future change (e.g. remember when you first started hearing about how fast or accurate this new thing called "Google" was? Pretty soon everyone was using it for search).

Cable companies in particular know this, and are preparing an all-out response with TV Everywhere. I've been critical of Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes's hyping of TV Everywhere, though I'm beginning to appreciate more why he's doing it. The cable/satellite/telco ecosystem must not only stay relevant in the coming convergence era, they must remain consumers' preferred providers. The money at stake is in the tens of billions of dollars. All that means that as consumers we should anticipate a dramatic increase in the decibel level for promotion of various video alternatives. A pitched PR battle for our hearts and minds lies ahead.

What do you think? Post a comment now.

Last Monday, in "Netflix's ABC Deal Shows Streaming Progress and Importance of Broadcast TV Networks," I tried making the case that from Netflix's perspective, in order for its Watch Instantly streaming service to succeed, it would most likely need to strike more deals with the broadcast TV networks (as it announced with ABC).

Now how about the flip side of the question: how can broadcast TV networks make online video payments a significant revenue stream?

There is certainly no lack of interest by broadcasters in getting paid for online access to their content. For example, CBS has joined Comcast's TV Everywhere trial, and its CEO Leslie Moonves has been outlining his arguments for why cable's authentication plans should generated new revenue for the network. News Corp head (and Fox owner) lately Rupert Murdoch hasn't been shy about his interest in charging for content, though his first focus appears to be on newspapers. And Disney CEO Bob Iger (and ABC owner), recently told the WSJ, "People are going to pay for content. We are not worried about that." Meanwhile NBC's Jeff Zucker is trying to reposition NBCU as a cable network company (i.e. one that sells ads AND gets paid for its programs).

As I think through how broadcasters can succeed with getting paid, I keep returning to 3 core beliefs: first, broadcasters' efforts should not be undertaken individually, but rather through its joint initiative Hulu, second, the model needs to be subscription-based, not per program-based and third, the subscription service should be made in partnership with incumbent video service providers (cable, satellite, Netflix, etc.) and convergence device makers (Roku, Xbox, etc.).

Hulu has established a strong online brand, built a large audience and demonstrated online savvy. I have the most confidence in Hulu to be able to identify the differentiators needed to drive new value vs. free, including things like more timely access to hit programs, deeper libraries, higher quality streaming, options for downloading and mobile, etc. And assuming the federal government didn't step in and cry "collusion!" Hulu would provide the greatest negotiating leverage.

The key challenge for Hulu would be gaining the rights from the networks, producers, talent and others to launch such a comprehensive service. These stakeholders would be understandably wary, not knowing exactly how to value what they'd be providing.

Several months ago, I suggested a Hulu subscription service was in the offing, but so far Hulu has stayed on message, only emphasizing its free, ad-supported model. I hope it and its parents recognize that time is of the essence. With each passing day, as more people use Hulu ever more intensively, their expectations for free are being set, thereby raising the bar on their eventual willingness to pay. I do believe broadcast networks have any opportunity to evolve their business model and charge, but they must not dither. The online medium is still immature enough that they can influence its rules by acting now.

What do you think? Post a comment now.

Following are 4 items worth noting from the week of August 3rd:

1. Research, research, research - For some unknown reason, there was a flurry online video-related research and forecasts released this week. In no particular order:

eMarketer was out with a new forecast indicating 188 million online video viewers in the U.S. in 2013.

Veronis Suhler released its forecast of 2009-2013 communications industry spending, showing advertising shrinking as a percentage of total spending.

PWC's UK office released its 2009-2013 forecast, which also anticipates declines in advertising.

CBS's research head David Poltrack used detailed data to explain the company's online video strategy and buttress its argument that in a TV Everywhere world, it should be compensated for its content (slides are here, via PaidContent).

Ipsos found that Americans streamed a record amount of TV programs and movies, doubling their consumption from Sept '08 to July '09.

Yahoo and a group of research partners released data finding that 70% of online video consumption happens throughout the day and night, as opposed to traditional TV viewing which is concentrated in the prime-time window.

Last but not least, TDG released excerpts of its research on "over-the-top" video services, available for download at VideoNuze.

2. Unicorn Media launches, hires ex-Move Networks executive David Rice - It will be hard for some to believe there's room for yet another white label video publishing and management platform, but startup Unicorn Media is going to try elbowing its way into the crowded space, with a specific focus on large media companies. I spoke with Unicorn's executive team this week, led by Bill Rinehart, who was the founding CEO of Limelight.

Unicorn is positioning itself as the first "enterprise-grade" solution, staking out key differentiators such as enhanced analytics/reporting, faster/easier transcoding, improved APIs for content ingest/management and more flexible monetization/ad queuing. I have not yet seen a demo, but I'm intrigued by what I heard. The company has raised $5M to date from executives/angels and has a staff of 25. David Rice, formerly Move's VP of Marketing has come on board as Chief Strategy Officer. Given the team's industry expertise and relationships, this could be a company to watch.

3. Google acquires On2 Technologies and other encoding-related news - The blogosphere was in a flurry about Google's $106M acquisition of video compression provider On2 Technologies this week. Speculation flew about Google open-sourcing On2 new VP8 codec, which could potentially force a new standard to emerge as a challenge to H.264, today's leading codec. This is important stuff, though a little further down the stack than I usually focus, so I refer you to Dan Rayburn's analysis of the deal's implications, which is the best I've seen.

There was other news in the emerging cloud-based encoding/transcoding/delivery market this week, as Encoding.com announced a new premium service with tighter service level agreements (4 minute max wait time and 50 Gbyte/hour/customer throughput). Encoding.com's Gregg Heil and Jeff Malkin explained the company is using the new SLAs to move upmarket to service tier 1 and 2 media companies. Separate, Encoding.com's competitor mPoint's CEO Chiranjeev Bordoloi told me they're now on a $3M annualized revenue run rate as cloud-based alternatives continue to gain acceptance.

Daisy Whitney and I are pleased to present the 26th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for August 7, 2009.

In this week's podcast, Daisy discusses her article on ExtendMedia's new OpenCase Publisher product targeted to support TV Everywhere-type initiatives, which I also wrote about this week. Daisy is observing a trend toward vendors organizing themselves for TV Everywhere, recognizing that while Comcast appears to be the first to market in testing TV Everywhere, other service providers are moving ahead as well. It's a complex new area and we both expect to see a number of vendors throw their hat in the ring to become preferred solutions.

Separate, I add further detail to my post, "Despite Hurdles, Made-for-Broadband Video Projects Proliferate," which describes many examples of new independent web series that have been announced over the past couple of months. It turns out to be a pretty lengthy list, helping to debunk some of the doom and gloom that's hung over this market, created by the ongoing recession in general plus the failure of some high-profile independents like 60Frames, Ripe, ManiaTV and others. When you review the list, you realize there's still a lot of experimentation going on and plenty of people trying to capitalize on the broadband medium. We expect this to continue.

Click here to listen to the podcast (12 minutes, 58 seconds)

Click here for previous podcasts

The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!

Continuing a past VideoNuze practice of making key data available from industry research firms, today I'm pleased to provide a dozen excerpt slides from The Diffusion Group's recent study, "Consumer Interest in OTT Video Services." TDG is one of the leading firms studying broadband adoption and shifting video consumption habits (and is also a long-time VideoNuze partner). These slides are from TDG's Q1 '09 proprietary survey of 2,000 U.S. adults, the results of which have only been shared with its paying clients to date.

Click here to download the slides

"Over-the-top" is an industry term for any video provider (e.g. free, paid, on-demand, live, streaming, etc.) using the broadband infrastructure of an unaffiliated ISP to reach their intended audience. Since most broadband ISPs are either cable companies or telcos who also offer their own subscription multichannel video services, the idea is that these new services (e.g. Netflix, YouTube, Hulu, Amazon VOD, etc.) are provided "over-the-top" of these broadband/video incumbents, directly to broadband-enabled audiences.

With the proliferation of convergence devices (e.g. Roku, Xbox, AppleTV, etc.) OTT video is increasingly getting all the way to viewers' TVs. Many of you have heard me talk about how powerful and unprecedented broadband's "openness" is in the traditionally tightly controlled video industry. Like the Internet itself, broadband's openness is foundational; it has enabled a totally new and free-flowing relationship between video content providers and viewers.

There's been no shortage of buzz that OTT providers could disrupt the multibillion dollar per year subscription TV business, enticing subscriber's to "cut the cord" on incumbent cable/telco/satellite providers. I've weighed in multiple times on the likelihood of cord-cutting, originally laying out my arguments last October in "Cutting the Cord on Cable: For Most of Us It's Not Happening Any Time Soon." With cable's TV Everywhere services now gaining steam, I think the likelihood of cord-cutting en masse is even more remote.

Nonetheless OTT remains a genuine long-term threat for many good reasons. So TDG's survey is a welcome effort at quantifying consumers' potential interest in OTT services, at various price points and in multiple types of offerings. TDG identifies 4 audience segments: "Replacers," "Supplementers," "OTT Optimals," and "Non-OTT Consumers." The survey tests demand for paid OTT services at various price points, revealing each segment's willingness to pay. Each segment is motivated by different reasons, meaning that OTT service providers are going to have to be very disciplined about understanding who exactly they're targeting and how to generate appeal.

Click here to download the slides

Please join me for a complimentary webinar thePlatform is hosting on Tues, Aug. 18th at 10 am PT / 1pm ET, "How Broadband Video Players Can Align Business Requirements and User Experience." I'll be moderating a discussion with the AP's Bill Burke, Global Director Online Video, PBS Interactive's Joshua Kinberg, Director, Video Product Management, and thePlatform's Marty Roberts, VP of Marketing.

The webinar will be highly interactive and will focus on how to use player technologies to meet online video business requirements while also providing outstanding user experiences. AP and PBS have extensive affiliate networks, making them both aggregators of online video as well as producers themselves. As a result they've faced key challenges in managing and presenting their video in a compelling, up-to-date manner. Bill and Joshua will share their best practices, and Marty will provide a broader perspective from thePlatform's dozens of customers.

Click here to learn more and for complimentary registration