VideoNuze Posts

Over the past few years a powerful virtuous cycle of wired broadband Internet access, connected TV and over-the-top premium content has taken hold, disrupting the traditional TV and pay-TV industries. This virtuous cycle is going to accelerate going forward, causing further instability for established providers and significant opportunity newer entrants.

Robust broadband is the foundation of the virtuous cycle. Today Leichtman Research Group reported that U.S. homes subscribing to broadband cracked the 100 million level for the first time. Big cable TV operators, who have been offering broadband for 25 years, are the winners, now accounting for 67% market share, vs. 33% for big telcos. That’s up from a 64%-46% split 2 years ago in Q3 ’17. Big cable TV operators continue to gain subscribers (830K in Q3 ’19, up 14% vs year ago) while telcos continued to lose them (down 225K in Q3 ’19, the biggest quarterly loss in over 3 years).

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I’m pleased to present the 490th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

On this week’s podcast, Colin and I review Apple TV+ which launched this past week, and look ahead to what its strategic value may be to Apple in the long-term. One of things we both observed quickly is that there isn’t really even a distinct Apple TV+ experience. Rather it’s just a name Apple has given to a set of original programs that live within Apple’s TV app, which also prominently features programs from other providers like HBO, Amazon, etc. This is in line with what I expected.

With this positioning, it seems clear that Apple’s primary goal is to make the TV app a hub for a viewer’s whole TV experience. The Apple originals (or “Apple TV+”) are really just an extra incentive to use the TV app. All of this leads us to wonder whether Apple will eventually drop the $4.99/mo charge entirely and just consider the originals a marketing expense to keep users within the iPhone ecosystem. That could also mean an iPhone plus video/music/services package (“Apple AllPass?”) for one monthly price could be on the horizon.

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Last Friday afternoon CNBC reported that NBCUniversal is “leaning toward” making the free, ad-supported version of Peacock, its upcoming streaming service, free, with everyone getting unrestricted access. This would be a change from restricting it to Comcast’s cable and broadband subscribers only, as originally intended. The ad-free version would still carry a fee.

Which direction Comcast decides to go will say a lot about whether it sees Peacock’s primary role as helping Comcast grow and defend its core cable/broadband business, or having NBCU become a bona fide competitor in the “streaming wars” developing with Netflix, Amazon, Disney, WarnerMedia, Apple, etc. How should Peacock’s value be optimized - by restricting access to serve the Comcast’s cable/broadband business, or to be guided by the market and help NBCU build Peacock into a large OTT business?

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If you’ve ever waited for an ad to play while watching something online, only to have the ad never end up playing, you’re not alone. According to Conviva’s latest quarterly State of Streaming report, 39.6% of all streaming video ads completely failed to play in Q3 ’19. The vast majority, 35.7%, were ad start failures, with exits before the ad started comprising the remaining 3.9%. In addition, the average ad start time was 1.14 seconds and the ad buffering ratio was .77%.

Ad failures and delays disrupt the user experience and cause abandonment, both harmful to ad-supported video businesses. As Conviva points out, ad-supported video is already an important business model, and will further grow as viewers cap the number of ad-free streaming services they subscribe to.

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I’m pleased to present the 489th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

First up on this week’s podcast, Colin and I discuss new data from Hub Entertainment Research, in particular how 63% of viewers said “online” is their main source for their favorite TV show. The research also found very strong awareness for Disney+ and Apple TV+, which is good news for both. Then we transition to WarnerMedia’s updates on HBO Max, which will launch in the spring.

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Just before the WarnerMedia team took the stage to unveil details of HBO Max, Sony announced that would it shut down its 4 year old PlayStation Vue virtual pay-TV service on January 30th. The moves are 2 great examples of the constantly-shifting strategies of big media companies.

PS Vue was an early mover in virtual pay-TV (or “vMVPD”). But if you think of the industry in 4 quadrant terms, with price on one axis and channel lineup on the other, PS Vue was relatively high on both - it offered a mostly complete channel lineup competitive with traditional pay-TV operators, but not at a significantly reduced price (which is the top motivator for prospects).

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A new survey from Hub Entertainment Research found that 63% of respondents identified “online” as the main source of their favorite TV show, vs. 35% who said it is their pay-TV set-top box. The 28 point gap is a big jump from the 2018 survey which found a 56%-44% divide in favor of online.

No surprise, within online, Netflix is by far the number one source of respondents’ favorite shows. Netflix was identified  by 34% of respondents, followed by 10% for Amazon Prime Video, 8% for Hulu and 4% for “other online.”

Hub didn’t provide an age breakout for any of the above data, but a separate study released today by Common Sense Media found that for 8-12 year olds, YouTube is by far the most used video service (53%), with Netflix next (27%) and YouTube Kids (7%), Amazon Prime Video (3%) and Hulu (2%) following. An interesting article in today’s WSJ helps explain the appeal of YouTube to teens.

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I’m pleased to present the 488th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

On this week’s podcast, Colin and I explore how powerful partnerships can be in the increasingly competitive SVOD space. First, Colin shares details on the Amazon-Premier League partnership which was first announced in June, 2018, but will be implemented for the first time in December, 2019. Under the deal Amazon has exclusive streaming rights to 2 blocks of 10 Premier League games. Colin crunched the numbers on what the deal could be worth to Amazon in the UK.

Then we turn our attention to the Verizon-Disney+ partnership announced earlier this week, in which Verizon's unlimited plan wireless subscribers will gain a full free year of Disney+. The deal could easily jumpstart Disney+ with several million subscribers.

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