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Early-Bird Ends Next Week For June 19th Online Video Ad Summit
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With Live TV Viewing in Decline, 4 Reasons Why Online Video Advertising's Appeal Should Grow
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Re-posting My Video Interview With HBO Co-President Eric Kessler as "Game of Thrones" Piracy Soars
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NBCU: Aereo Must Die So Broadcasters Can Keep Paying Billions in Sports Licensing Fees
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #132 - Understanding Content Piracy
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MSN's Joe Michaels: "Our Most Successful Video Series Are in Verticals" [VIDEO]
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mPortal: Dynamically Updating Content in TV Everywhere Apps [VIDEO]
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5 Intriguing What-Ifs For Netflix
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Analysis for 'Aggregators'
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5 Intriguing What-Ifs For Netflix
After a golden period of scorching growth from 2010 to mid-2011, Netflix has been on a rocky road since, to say
the least. While subscriber growth re-started modestly in Q1, the company reported its first loss in years. True, you can't "drive while looking in the rear-view mirror," but it is intriguing to think about where Netflix might be today had it done 5 (or maybe more) things differently. Here are my top 5 "what-ifs" to consider:Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #131 - Battle Lines Drawn Between Paid vs. Free Video Ecosystems
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 131st edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for May 4, 2012. This week Colin and I discuss how fundamental battle lines have been drawn between the traditional TV ecosystem vs. the numerous digital outlets that are launching online-only original programs. To be more specific, the former group seems intent on erecting ever-higher paywalls to access its programs, which is in turn opening up a gigantic opportunity for free, ad-supported programs to be provided by the latter group. How this battle unfolds will have far-reaching and profound implications for everyone involved.
For the traditional TV ecosystem, there appear to be two core drivers at work; first, the desire by broadcast TV networks to morph themselves into cable TV networks, and second, the role that TV Everywhere is taking on as a foundation of paywall economics.Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Cable Networks, Indie Video, Podcasts
Topics: Hulu, NBC, Podcast, TV Everywhere, YouTube
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Netflix Q1 Results - Back to Growth, Albeit Much Slower
Netflix reported its Q1 '12 results yesterday, adding almost 3 million subscribers, of which 1.7 million were domestic and 1.2 million were international, while showing its first loss in a while. Focusing just on the domestic side, the 1.7 million additions are certainly a positive reversal from the past 2 quarters, but are just about half of the 3.3 million domestic subscribers added a year ago in Q1 '11 (see chart below). While Netflix is forecasting to add 7 million subscribers in 2012, the company's domestic expansion rate is clearly slowing from its torrid pace of a year ago.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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Can YouTube Succeed With Online Movie Rentals?
Yesterday YouTube got a lot of coverage of its new licensing deal for hundreds of movies from Paramount
because separately, the studio's parent company, Viacom, has been involved in a bitter copyright litigation with YouTube for years. While it's noteworthy that the parties are able to do business despite suing each other, the bigger questions here are whether YouTube's initiative to rent Hollywood movies makes sense and can succeed?Categories: Aggregators, FIlms, Studios
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Video Interview with Vuguru's Chief Creative Officer Kristin Jones
Today I'm pleased to share a video interview I did with Vuguru's Chief Creative Officer Kristin Jones at the recent NATPE Market conference in Miami, FL. Among other topics, Kristin describes Vuguru's business model, some of the successful originals that it has created, how she sees online distributors differentiating themselves and where the market for digital content is heading from here.
The interview runs about 7 minutes. (Note, I'm off camera and my audio isn't great, so the questions are overlaid in text.)Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Indie Video, People
Topics: Vuguru
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It's Hard to See How Streaming Movies Will Surpass DVD/Blu-ray In 2012
Last Thursday night, a Bloomberg headline, "Online Film Viewing in U.S. to Top Discs in 2012, IHS Says," caught my eye. The article reported that media research firm IHS Screen Digest is forecasting that "legal online
viewings of films will more than double to 3.4 billion this year from 1.4 billion in 2011." Meanwhile IHS is forecasting that DVD/Blu-ray viewing will decline from 2.6 billion viewings in 2011 to 2.4 billion in 2012.
Over the weekend, as I kept seeing other publications essentially reiterating the Bloomberg story, I started wondering how IHS arrived at its forecast, the details of which I haven't seen. Doing a little back of the envelope analysis, as I show below, it's awfully hard to see how streaming movies in the U.S. will more than double from last year, unless some very unexpected things happen with Netflix (IHS notes that 94% of streaming movie volume was subscription-based, and of course, Netflix massively dominates this segment). Rather, it seems likely DVD/Blu-ray will hold on for another year.Categories: Aggregators, Analytics, FIlms, Research
Topics: IHS Screen Digest, Netflix
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #126 - Sky's NOW TV; iPad's Data Cap Problems
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 126th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Mar. 23, 2012. This week finds Colin in London, providing him an even better perspective on our first topic this week, Sky's new over-the-top service called NOW TV, which it will launch this summer. Colin is bullish on NOW TV and likes the lessons it provides for U.S. pay-TV operators.
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Analytics, Books, Devices, International, Podcasts, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: iPad, Sky, Verizon Wireless
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #125 -- Colin Reports From Brazil About Netflix
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 125th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Mar. 16, 2012. This week finds Colin on business in Brazil, and he's been doing some sleuthing on how Netflix's rollout is going there. Back on the domestic front, we also discuss Intel's rumored TV plans and the latest on Aereo's rollout.
Colin reports that anecdotal feedback on Netflix's content selection in Brazil is underwhelming as it is perceived as mostly older titles. He raises the critical question of whether Netflix was wise in choosing not to partner with any established players which might have brought content as well as an understanding of local conditions. Colin points out that the landscape is very different in Brazil vs. the U.S., with pay-TV penetration of just 20% and over-the-air broadcast viewing dominant. All that said, Colin has heard that Netflix is advertising heavily to build its brand. And Brazil is of course an enormous market, representing big long-term opportunities.Categories: Aggregators, International, Podcasts
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #124 - Sizing Up Apple's TV Ambitions
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 124th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Mar. 9, 2012. In this week's podcast we discuss Apple and its TV ambitions.
This past Wednesday Apple announced a few minor feature updates to its $99 Apple TV device. While the device continues to improve, in my view it still does not come close to representing Apple's ultimate ambitions in the living room. I think it's inevitable that Apple will introduce some type of "television" (timing TBD) and that when it does, it will be both a design and an experience breakthrough. My caveat here is that Apple needs quality content to support the device, and what it will be able to offer is still unclear. Stirring the pot, in the past week the NY Post reported that Apple is negotiating for rights to turn channels into apps, and Steve Jobs's biographer said that he purposely left out of his book details of what Jobs thought Apple TV should be.Categories: Aggregators, Devices, Podcasts
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Video Interview with Yahoo's EVP, Americas Ross Levinsohn
Today I'm pleased to share a video interview I did with Yahoo's EVP, Americas, Ross Levinsohn at the recent NATPE Market conference in Miami, FL. Among the topics Ross addresses are::
How Yahoo is breaking through given the proliferation of online video choices?
How did the new Tom Hanks project "Electric City" for Yahoo come about?
Why is Yahoo's user data so important to developing original programming?
What's the timetable for shifting TV spending to online video and what are the key challenges?
Are there non ad-based revenue streams Yahoo envisions for its video?
What's the big surprise he foresees for 2012?
The interview runs 12 1/2 minutes. (Note, I'm off camera and my audio isn't great, so the questions are overlaid in text.)Categories: Advertising, Aggregators, Indie Video, People
Topics: Yahoo
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #123 - Aereo, Starz-Netflix, UltraViolet
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 123rd edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Mar. 2, 2012. This week's podcast has a different format; instead of discussing one topic in depth, we touch on three areas - the new lawsuit against Aereo, Netflix's deal with Starz ending (and whether the "flix" is coming out of Netflix) and UltraViolet's strategy of using discs to drive adoption.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, DRM, FIlms, Podcasts, Studios
Topics: Aereo, Netflix, Starz, UltraViolet
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Video Interview with Netflix Content Chief Ted Sarandos
Today I'm pleased to share a video interview I did with Netflix's Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos at the recent NATPE Market conference in Miami, FL. Among the topics Ted addresses are:
- How the business is doing since the Qwikster reversal, and what lessons were learned?
- Is there a chance the Starz deal could be renewed at some point?
- What is the role of TV series vs. movies on Netflix (and is the "flix" coming out of Netflix since Ted told me separately that 60% of the 2 billion hours watched in Q4 '11 was TV, and that the percentage is rising)?
- Why are the after-market economics for serialized dramas so challenging, in turn making Netflix a valued partner?
- Which competitors make him most nervous?
- How are international rollouts going?
- Which connected device is most critical to Netflix long-term?
- Is Netflix having any impact on cord-cutting and cord-shaving?
The interview runs 18 1/2 minutes. (Note, I'm off camera and my audio isn't great, so the questions are overlaid in text.)
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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Comcast Launches Xfinity Streampix, Seeking Increased Packaging and Pricing Flexibility
Comcast is launching a new subscription video-on-demand service called Xfinity Streampix that will be freely available to most of its higher-paying subscribers, while carrying a $4.99/mo charge for its lower-paying video
subscribers. At launch the service will include past season episodes such as "30 Rock," "Grey's Anatomy," and "Married With Children" from NBC, ABC and Sony respectively, as well as movies from Warner Bros. and Universal, plus kids programming from Cookie Jar and Disney Channel. Streampix will be accessible both in and out-of-home and on multiple devices like the Xbox 360 and Android as the year progresses.Categories: Aggregators, Cable TV Operators
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Coinstar Reports Strong Q4, Proving DVDs Are Not Dead Yet
Think the world has moved on entirely from renting DVDs to streaming? Think again. Coinstar reported strong Q4 earnings late yesterday, with its Redbox DVD kiosk unit showing 39.5% revenue growth for the quarter. Coinstar attributed Redbox's performance to new kiosks, popularity of new releases and the price increase that went into effect on Oct. 31st.
Coinstar management is also bullish for 2012, forecasting Q1 revenue of $530M-$555M, exceeding analysts' average expectations of $517M. And it's betting further on DVDs' continued strength, also announcing yesterday that it is acquiring NCR's 10,000 Blockbuster Express DVD kiosks for approximately $100M, which will help it build out its international business.Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Redbox
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Verizon-Redbox Joint Venture Announced; Netflix is in Bullseye
Verizon and Redbox parent Coinstar announced their much-rumored joint venture this morning, promising a "new single-source, national multi-platform" service to be launched in the second half of 2012. The new service is squarely aimed at competing with Netflix. However, neither the press release nor a 5-minute press call revealed any substantive details about the service (e.g. content available, pricing, geographic availability, etc.). Verizon will own 65% of the JV, with Coinstar owning the remainder.
On the surface the alliance makes sense, marrying streaming and DVD rentals. Verizon brings its massive wireless footprint and tens of millions of subscriber relationships to the JV, a huge promotional platform. Also, via its FiOS roll-outs, it has relationships with key content providers. For its part, Redbox brings its 35,000+ rental kiosks along with its own Hollywood relationships. Theoretically, some combination of the two could yield a compelling offering.Categories: Aggregators, Telcos
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #119 - YouTube's Original Channels
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 119th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Feb. 3, 2012. In this week's podcast we discuss YouTube's original channels strategy.
As I wrote earlier this week, I think YouTube's approach is quite compelling, and although it's still very early, the disruptive potential is high. In a sense I see YouTube as trying to "out-cable cable," by introducing niche and micro-niche programming that leverage its low-cost, interactive distribution platform reaching a global audience of 800 million viewers each month. It's awfully tempting for incumbent broadcasters and cable networks to dismiss the efforts as lower quality and therefore not competitive, but history shows things that start modestly often have a way of improving dramatically (take ESPN's evolution as one great example).
Colin zeroes in on YouTube's interactive attributes and the favorable economics of online video delivery as being a key differentiators from today's TV landscape. As one who worked on so called interactive TV (or "ITV") efforts in its early days, Colin has a great perspective on this. He thinks YouTube's programming can be distinctive because, by definition, it can capitalize on its inherent connected Internet platform. That, combined with YouTube's native engaged user base, gives YouTube a whole new opportunity to change viewing experiences. Colin highlights a recent TDG survey of iPad users that revealed YouTube as the most used app (by 64% of users), which surpassed even iTunes (53% of users).
Listen in to learn more!
Note, this week YouTube head Salar Kamangar did a great on-stage interview with Peter Kafka at the D: Dive Into Media conference where he articulated YouTube's strategy. And for another perspective on YouTube's strength, see this fascinating article about RayWJ, a YouTube-only comedian who's reportedly pulling in $1 million a year from his channel.
Click here to listen to the podcast (21 minutes, 14 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Aggregators, Podcasts
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Wall Street Journal's YouTube Channel Launches With "Off Duty" Video Series
The Wall Street Journal has launched its WSJ Live YouTube channel this morning, debuting "Off Duty" a companion video series to the popular lifestyle section in the newspaper's Weekend Journal. The WSJ Live channel is the latest addition to YouTube's 100 original channels strategy. In addition to Off Duty, the WSJ Live channel features NewsHub, Digits and Mean Street, three other on-demand/live video series that are found on the main WSJ.com site and more recently the WSJ Live iPad app.
Categories: Aggregators, Indie Video, Newspapers
Topics: YouTube
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With Original Channels, YouTube is Building a Parallel Universe to Cable
There are many exciting things happening in the online video industry, but to my mind, none is more noteworthy than the radical transformation of
YouTube. YouTube is shedding its scruffy adolescence and seeking to redefine what entertainment means in the online video era. In fact, with each passing day, it becomes more evident that YouTube is building a parallel universe to the traditional world of cable TV, targeting niches that have long been mined by a multitude of specialty channels. This theme will crystallize as 2012 unfolds.
YouTube's 100 new channels of original online-only content have begun rolling out and will continue to do so throughout the year. For a relatively modest $100 million (by Google's standards!) YouTube is getting first dibs on programming that is laser-targeted at valuable niches. Importantly, it is helping galvanize a community of content creators who have either not been a part of the traditional pay and broadcast TV ecosystem, or are seeking a new, less constrained environment to play in, or both.Categories: Aggregators, Indie Video
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #118 - Netflix's Q4 '11 Results
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 118th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Jan. 27, 2012. In this week's podcast we discuss Netflix's Q4 '11 results, which were released this past Wed. afternoon.
The good news is that the results showed some glimmers of improvement in Netflix's business, but as I explained yesterday's post, net subscribers continued to be adversely affected by last summer's Qwikster and price increase decisions. The group showing the most attrition is the "hybrid" DVD/streaming U.S. subscribers who saw their rates increase by up to 60%. Colin and I dig into why this group is in fact still so vital to Netflix's success, and the risks posed by the company's strategy of pursuing streaming all out.
Colin also shares recent research TDG has done indicating that for those Netflix streaming subscribers retaining the service, satisfaction is running very high. That, combined with Netflix's own announcement that 2 billion hours of streaming content were consumed in Q4 '11, are encouraging indicators that the streaming service is resonating. Still, the big looming question for 2012 is how robust net U.S. subscriber growth will be. Listen in to learn more!
Click here to listen to the podcast (22 minutes, 31 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Aggregators, Podcasts
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Netflix's Q4 '11 Results Slammed By Residue of Qwikster/Price Increase Decisions
If you're a Netflix follower (and these days, who in the industry isn't?) then this morning you're being greeted by many cheerful headlines regarding the company's Q4 '11 results, released late yesterday. A sampling includes: "Netflix shares surging after a blowout quarter," "Netflix wins over analysts by adding customers," "Netflix recovers subscribers" and "A turnaround at Netflix, as its mail sector shrinks." All of that is contributing to a run-up in Netflix's stock price, based on optimism that the company is back on track, and ready to surge again.
To be fair, given the negative sentiment shrouding Netflix for the last 6 months and dramatically reduced expectations, the results did show some glimmers of a turnaround. But, if you read past the headlines, look closely at the numbers and listen to management's discussion of the results, what emerges for me are the staggering ongoing consequences of last summer's Qwikster/price change fiasco, the continued pursuit of an unnecessary, hyper-aggressive phase-out of its core DVD-by-mail business, murkiness about its international prospects and near-certain intensifying competition in streaming. Given all that, I think it's still way too early to conclude Netflix is back on track, particularly in the U.S.Categories: Aggregators
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