I’m pleased to present the 428th edition of the VideoNuze podcast, with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.
This week Colin and I discuss new research highlighting how younger viewers are shifting away from traditional TV and toward OTT sources. Colin recaps research from Hub Entertainment focusing on the US while I share highlights from Ofcom’s new Media Nations report covering viewing behaviors in the UK.
While the numbers are slightly different, the general trends are similar. For example, in the US, just 26% of 18-34 year-olds consider live TV their default service. In the UK, for 18-34 year-olds, 54% of their video consumption is now from OTT sources.
Listen in to learn more!
Click here to listen to the podcast (24 minutes, 4 seconds)
Comcast has officially dropped out of the bidding for the 21st Century Fox assets, clearing the path for Disney to move forward. Comcast still plans to pursue Sky in the UK. But by dropping its Fox bid, Comcast has also foregone the opportunity to take control of Hulu (by virtue of combining its 30% stake with Fox’s 30% stake). Presumably now Disney will take control of Hulu.
I believe this is a major missed opportunity for Comcast, leaving the company under-optimized in the fast-changing premium video industry. As we all know, today’s key industry themes include the rise of cord-cutting and consumers’ move to lower cost skinny bundles, the shift to on-demand viewing, with the accompanying growth of ad-free SVOD services (e.g. Netflix, Amazon, Hulu), the rapid adoption of connected TV and mobile devices for viewing and the nationalization/globalization of video services, among others.
More evidence of the shifting viewership behavior of younger audiences: UK regulator Ofcom’s first annual Media Nations report found that 16-34 year-olds there now watch an average of 2 hours, 37 minutes per day of OTT content vs. 2 hours, 11 minutes of broadcast content across all devices.
The younger group’s OTT consumption is almost double the overall population’s of 1 hour, 28 minutes. Across all age groups, 71% of viewing time is still with broadcast content. However, broadcast TV viewership on TVs dropped by 9 minutes, or 4.2% in 2017 to an average of 3 hours, 22 minutes per day. Since 2012, broadcast viewership has decreased by 38 minutes per day or 15.7%.
Netflix reported a large miss on its subscriber forecast in Q2, with 670K net additions in the U.S. (44% below its forecast of 1.2 million) and 4.47 million net additions internationally (10% below its forecast of 5 million). From my standpoint, the international miss is almost irrelevant because the segment includes so many different countries with so many different adoption patterns that Netflix is still new to understanding. With all of those moving pieces, missing by just 10% isn’t too shabby.
Conversely, the domestic miss of 44% is a real head-scratcher which I believe raises, yet again, real questions around how well the company understands the dynamics of the domestic SVOD market, how much growth remains and how well its forecasting function is run. For eager investors, who have bid up the stock on lofty expectations, getting a handle on these issues seems critical.