VideoNuze Posts

Netflix's original series "House of Cards" received 9 Emmy nominations this morning including in 3 of the marquee categories best drama, best actor (Kevin Spacey) and best actress (Robin Wright). The nominations were a first for online original programming and therefore are a bona fide milestone for the rapidly growing online video medium. In addition, Netflix picked up 3 Emmy nominations for "Arrested Development."

While Netflix bet big to put HoC in a league with cable stalwarts - and other best drama nominees "Game of Thrones," "Breaking Bad," "Homeland" and "Mad Men" plus the lone broadcast series "Downton Abbey" - an intriguing question to ask is whether the HoC nominations signal the beginning of an Emmy trend for online original programs or whether HoC is more of an outlier? In other words, can online get on the same type of award-winning growth curve for its originals as cable networks have over the last 20 years, helping drive pay-TV subscriber acquisition and retention?

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It's time for the latest episode of the industry's best and longest-running soap opera, "Google, Apple and the Mission to Disrupt Pay-TV." New reports this week (here and here) suggest that the two tech giants are once again angling to get a piece of the pay-TV industry, which, despite already being under attack from all sides, appears to be holding its own.

As in the past, the current episode is based only on "people familiar" with the discussions Google and Apple executives are each having with pay-TV industry players. Google and Apple executives as usual are offering "no comment." The new episode features twists to keep all of us engaged. Apple is reportedly contemplating a "premium" version of its service that will allow users to skip ads, with Apple compensating TV networks for lost ad revenue (not to spoil the drama, but it's awfully hard to see how the math would add up on such a plan or why the networks themselves would go for it). And Google has reportedly even demo'd its product (shocking!), though no details on what it is or how it is different were released.

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Investment firm Needham & Company has released its latest Future of TV report, with lead analyst Laura Martin concluding that the biggest current risk to the TV industry's economics is unbundling of subscription TV channels. Martin asserts that if consumers had the option to choose their channels on an a la carte basis, rather than the multi-channel bundles that pay-TV operators currently offer, approximately 50% of today's TV revenue would be eliminated with fewer than 20 TV channels surviving.

The draconian forecast adds a financial dimension to the ongoing debate around whether the TV industry will need to radically re-think its business approach if - and it's still a big "if" - cord-cutting gains momentum. To date cord-cutting (and "cord-nevering," where younger viewers simply don't subscribe to pay-TV as in the past) have been relatively muted, with estimates for 2012 in the 500K range. However, several key industry trends such as the escalating cost of pay-TV, changes in consumer behaviors, proliferation of connected and mobile viewing devices, the surge in OTT SVOD adoption (e.g. Netflix) and DVR-based ad-skipping all suggest that the industry's traditional bundled model could be tested over the next few years.

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Last Friday afternoon, Hulu's owners Disney, Fox and NBCU/Comcast (note NBCU/Comcast is a passive owner) announced that they wouldn't be selling Hulu, despite an active bidding process. Instead, the companies will retain their interests and plan to invest $750 million in Hulu to grow it. Although the principal reason for the sale was a disagreement over Hulu's business strategy, the announcement said Fox and Disney are "fully aligned in our collective vision and goals for the business (although what they actually are were not disclosed).

This was the second time a Hulu sale failed to materialize and I believe that once again, the reason was that Hulu's owners realized "you can't have your cake and eat it too." Translation: Disney and Fox wanted to retain all kinds of content rights and flexibility, yet still wanted a very high valuation for the business. Since Hulu's next-day broadcast rights are at the core of its valuation, Disney and Fox's attempt to chip away at them led bidders to reduce what they were willing to pay, obviously beyond the level at which Fox and Disney felt it was still worthwhile selling the business.

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I'm pleased to present the 187th edition of the VideoNuze weekly podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia. During the short July 4th week news broke that Samsung acquired Boxee. Today, we discuss whether the deal makes sense and how much Samsung could benefit. Colin believes that Samsung will benefit by being able to integrate live broadcast TV more seamlessly into its Smart TVs, something that has been missing to date, but which Boxee excelled at with its Boxee TV service.

While that would be a step forward, it feels to me like a relatively limited value proposition, since cable TV networks wouldn't be included unless a CableCARD slot was available. Even as a second TV in the home as Colin proposes, a Samsung/Boxee Smart TV seems like it would have limited appeal, due to the rise of tablet-based viewing and the ability to access broadcast TV via Hulu, network sites/apps, pay-TV operator apps, etc. (a larger question raised is whether 2nd TVs have much of a future themselves).

While Colin and I agree that the rumored $30 million purchase price for Boxee is a drop in the bucket for a goliath like Samsung, it's not clear yet how much of a return they'll get.

Listen in to learn more!

Click here to listen to the podcast (19 minutes, 52 seconds)

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At the recent Online Video Ad Summit, MediaCrossing's CEO and founder Bill Lederer led an in-depth discussion of programmatic video with executives from Yahoo, Horizon Media and Adap.TV. For those not familiar with programmatic, it's essentially the use of technology to automate the buying and selling of media. Programmatic has become a significant factor in the online video advertising space as an augment to content providers' direct sales efforts. If you need a soup-to-nuts understanding of programmatic and its potential, this session is a great primer.

The video is below and runs 35 minutes, 22 seconds.

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At last month's Online Video Ad Summit, I did a great one-on-one interview with Lori Conkling, who's the EVP, Strategy and Business Development for Media Innovation and Cross Company Initiatives at NBCU (yes, Lori concedes that's a mouthful!). Lori joined the relatively new NBCU group several months ago from A&E Networks, where she oversaw multi-platform distribution strategy for the company's 10 networks.

In the interview, we touch on a broad range of topics including: fragmentation in audiences, devices and advertising, the criteria NBCU uses in determining which new technologies/opportunities to pursue (e.g. financial, lessons to be learned, etc.), NBCU's interest in original online-only programming, the status of TV Everywhere, mobile video usage patterns, and lots more. For anyone looking to get a peek into how big media companies are thinking about online video, the interview is a must-watch.

The video is below and runs 39 minutes and 29 seconds.

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Two weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal debuted its "WSJ Startup of the Year" documentary series, another great example of how online video is enabling print publications to expand well beyond their traditional roots. The series will run for 5 months, featuring 24 early-stage businesses (culled from 500 applicants) competing with one another across a number of challenges while being mentored along the way by over 40 high-profile business leaders. The series plays out in videos created by WSJ and submitted by the startups themselves. It is created in collaboration with Ish Entertainment, founded by Michael Hirschorn, former programming head of VH1.

I've long been a big fan of print publications tapping into online video's potential to enrich their readers' experiences. Print publications like the WSJ have strong brand identities, editorial skills, promotional platforms and advertising relationships they can leverage for their video initiatives. WSJ has been a leader through WSJ Live, which, as of last year, was already producing 100+ hours of live and on-demand original programming/month.

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