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Will Wal-Mart Expand VUDU Into Subscriptions and Compete With Netflix?
Wal-Mart's news this week that it has more deeply integrated its movie streaming service VUDU into its web site and e-commerce operations is a
good step forward in competing better with Amazon and iTunes. However, because the vast majority of users prefer all-you-can-eat subscription services, the reality is that VUDU's new visibility will likely have little impact on Netflix (except maybe for lighter users who are upset by Netflix's recent price change and aren't deterred by VUDU's per title rental model and restrictive expiration policies).
That raises the question of when might Wal-Mart really step up to the plate and expand VUDU into subscriptions, offering a true alternative to Netflix? It seems like the time may finally be right to make the move. In particular, Netflix's recent price change, separating DVD-by-mail and streaming-only services presents a golden opportunity for Wal-Mart to go on the offensive. Here's the logic:
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: CBS, NBCU, Netflix, VUDU, Wal-Mart
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Fox Unveils Exclusive 8-Day Authenticated Window For Online Shows: Major Ouch For Hulu
Assuming Fox, one of Hulu's owners, was hoping to sell the site for top dollar, then you have to wonder about the consequences of a new plan it has announced to create an exclusive 8-day online viewing window solely for paying
subscribers of authorized distributors. The new plan is a major endorsement of pay-TV operators' TV Everywhere approach and could be the first salvo by broadcast TV networks in curtailing free online access to their programs. DISH Network is the first pay-TV operator to sign up for the new Fox plan.
For Hulu, the move would appear to be a double whammy. A key part of Hulu.com's value proposition and its ability to drive huge traffic was offering next-day access to select programs from its parent broadcast networks. Under the new plan, users would lose coveted free next-day access (plus a week) unless they were authenticated. Less traffic of course means less advertising revenue.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters
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Now We Know: Netflix Modeling Churn At Record 6.5 Million Subscribers in Q3 '11 Due to Effect of Pricing Change
A central question following Netflix's recent decision to separate DVD and streaming plans - driving some subscribers' rates up by 60% - was what effect it would have on churn. The hue and cry from outraged subscribers in the days after the decision was announced certainly indicated it would be meaningful. But it was anyone's best guess what it would actually be.
Now, with Netflix's Q3 '11 subscriber forecast included in its Q2 earnings release, plus a few assumptions I've made, it appears as though Netflix itself is modeling churn of approximately 6.5 million U.S. subscribers this quarter, a record for the company that could wipe out almost all of its quarterly gross subscriber additions in the U.S. (see below for a 2-year churn chart). The 6.5 million includes around 2.5-3 million incremental subscribers lost - presumably due to the price increase - over and above an expected churn of 3.5-4 million subscribers for the quarter.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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Hulu Sale Process Has Become One Big Leak-a-thon
Late last week when Bloomberg reported that Apple is "considering making a bid" for Hulu, it inevitably ignited a series of follow-on articles and tweetsfrom other outlets, amplifying the perception of seriousness. How meaningful "considering making a bid" actually is nobody but the insiders really know. However, the Apple "news" underscored how the process of selling Hulu has become one big leak-a-thon, with bankers and others involved with the process continuously leaking selective nuggets of information to major media outlets as unnamed sources, no doubt with an eye to shaping how the sale process plays itself out.
In fact, even the decision to sell Hulu has never been officially acknowledged by Hulu itself; rather, the LA Times reported that bankers had been retained. That news was preceded by leaks that Yahoo had approached Hulu about an acquisition, that Hulu was considering selling itself, and that Fox, one of Hulu's owners and key content suppliers had renewed its license deal. In the month since these tidbits were released, there have been numerous other leaks, which I have listed below with links, noting the anonymous references each article cites (apologies to any I may have missed).
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Deals & Financings
Topics: Comcast, Disney, Hulu, News Corp.
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New CBS Licensing Deal Doesn't Offer Amazon Much Differentiation vs. Netflix
Amazon and CBS announced a licensing agreement this morning, which, while a step in the right direction for Amazon Prime, doesn't seem to offer it much differentiation. The press release states that 18 CBS TV programs are part of the deal, though the only ones identified are "The Tudors," "Numb3rs," "Medium," the "Star Trek" series, "Frasier" and "Cheers." A quick glance at Netflix's catalog shows that all past seasons of "Numb3rs," "Medium," "Cheers," "The Tudors" and the original 3 seasons of "Star Trek" are available on streaming. Only "Frasier" isn't available on streaming, though it is on DVD.
Perhaps some of the other programs in the deal aren't already available on Netflix, but the group identified today underscores how networks' and studios' non-exclusive approach means that any distributor with a willingness to pay will get essentially the same content.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters
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Updated Orb Live App Allows Users to Stream Hulu and Other Premium Video to Mobile Devices
Orb Networks is releasing the latest version of its Orb Live app today, which allows users to stream content from Hulu, Netflix, Amazon VOD and other sources to their mobile devices. Users download free Orb Caster software to their PC or Mac, and then by purchasing the $9.99 Orb Live app are able to stream video from their computer to their mobile device. The iOS version of Orb Live is available today, with the Android version coming in mid-August.
The new Hulu feature is useful for gaining access to the free programs that are available on Hulu.com since you currently have to subscribe to Hulu Plus in order to gain mobile access though its app. In addition to Hulu and other premium content, new features in Orb Live include adaptive bit rate capability to deliver the optimal experience depending on fluctuating connection speeds. Orb has also created an index of all premium content available so that when users search for a particular show, its availability on multiple sites is surfaced.
Categories: Aggregators, Mobile Video, Technology
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1/3 of YouTube's In-Stream Ads Now In Skippable Format
Google executives were as sparing as ever in yesterday's Q2 '11 earnings call with details about YouTube's financial performance, but they did divulge one
interesting new nugget: 1/3 of YouTube's in-stream ads are now in a skippable format. Susan Wojcicki, Google's SVP, Advertising shared the data point to show the rapid progress that YouTube has made since launching its "TrueView" format last December.
TrueView is an important building block in a larger industry initiative Google is pursuing, to have 50% of video ads include a cost-per-view element. Google believes that by giving viewers the option to skip the ad or select a particular one, engagement will be stronger which will in turn drive rates higher. As with DVR ad-skipping, viewers also gain greater control of their experience which so satisfaction will improve.
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #104 - Netflix Pricing Debate - July 15, 2011
Daisy Whitney and I are pleased to present the 104th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for July 15, 2011.
In this week's podcast Daisy and I debate Netflix's decision to separate streaming and DVD-by-mail pricing. The topic has been widely covered this week, and we try to address some of the major questions swirling around (e.g. why did they do it? what are the implications? what choice will subscribers make? And more). One point I continue to make is that if Netflix's goal was to kill off the DVD business, as some have suggested this week, that seems pre-mature to me. DVDs still have a huge amount of strategic value to Netflix because they offer so much more choice than today's streaming catalog.
More of VideoNuze's coverage below (including great commentary from readers):
Sorting Through the 4 Tough Choices Most Netflix Subscribers Now Face
Netflix Makes a Surprising Left Turn With New Pricing Approach
Click here to listen to the podcast (17 minutes, 47 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!
Categories: Aggregators, Podcasts
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Sorting Through the 4 Tough Choices Most Netflix Subscribers Now Face
Netflix's decision yesterday to separate unlimited streaming and DVD-by-mail pricing means that a large majority of its nearly 23 million U.S. subscribers will be forced to choose from among four tough choices. As I described in my last post, Netflix subscribers to any of its DVD-by-mail plans now face the choice of either scaling back to DVDs-only, switching to streaming-only, absorbing a rate increase of somewhere between 33%-60%, depending on which plan they've had, or simply dropping Netflix altogether.
Following is an attempt to sort out how subscribers may think about their decision as well as my take on Netflix's viewpoint on each choice.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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Netflix Expands to 43 Latin American Countries But Faces New Broadband Challenges
A major piece of news from Netflix during this typically slow July 4th holiday week: the company posted on its blog this morning that it intends to expand its service to 43 countries in Mexico, Central America, South America and the Caribbean later this year.
The 43 countries weren't specified nor was an exact timetable for rollout. And no mention was made of DVDs, so it appears that this will be a
streaming-only offering. In another first, the service will be available in Spanish, Portuguese and English, the first time to my knowledge that Netflix will offer additional language options.
Netflix observers have been eagerly awaiting news from the company on international expansion plans beyond Canada, which launched last September. By the end of Q1, Netflix said it had approximately 800K subscribers in Canada, but the service has been hindered a bit by extremely low data caps by broadband ISPs. The Canadian experience, along with other broadband-related factors, makes the choice of Latin America a bit surprising as Netflix's next move and introduces new challenges.
Categories: Aggregators, International
Topics: Netflix
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No Surprise, Google is Kicking Hulu's Tires
The LA Times is reporting that Google has met with Hulu and its representatives about possibly acquiring the site. Others reported to have met include Microsoft and Yahoo. The news isn't surprising given Google's well-known appetite for adding premium Hollywood to its offering and its general acquisitiveness. Despite my skepticism about whether a Hulu deal can get done with anyone given the complexity around long-term distribution rights from its network owners, I suggested that Google, along with Apple and Netflix, would be the most likely prospective acquirers. Still, it's very early in the process, so lots will still happen.
Meanwhile, Hulu acquisition activity doesn't seem to have slowed down product innovation. Today Hulu announced a clever new integration with Facebook that allows Hulu viewers to share comments on a specific scene in Hulu programs with their Facebook friends along with a link to that scene. Hulu is also enabling login using Facebook credentials, something that has become popular at many sites (update: it looks like there was an implementation issue, so Hulu has pulled back this feature for now). The push to socialize Hulu is part of a broader trend to bring social media behavior to TV viewing.
Categories: Aggregators, Deals & Financings
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First Fox, Now Disney, Reportedly Renewing Hulu's Distribution Rights
As if this week's intrigue around Hulu putting itself up for sale hasn't been enough, Bloomberg is reporting that Disney has tentatively agreed to renewHulu's distribution rights for ABC programs. The deal is said to mirror another tentative deal, between Fox and Hulu, which Variety reported earlier this week. Both deals are believed to require Hulu carry an increased ad load.
Since company representatives aren't quoted, it's hard to know how legit the renewals are, or whether they're just another leak to support one of the many agendas players involved in Hulu have. Of course, that's how the week began - with the WSJ citing unidentified sources saying that Yahoo had made an overture to acquire Hulu. That was followed by news that Hulu had retained 2 investment banks to explore a sale, and then with the Fox renewal news.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters
Topics: Comcast, Disney, Hulu, News Corp.
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #101 - More on Hulu Sale - June 24, 2011
In this week's podcast, Daisy and I discuss the potential sale of Hulu, which was the big story of the week in the online video world. We recorded the podcast just prior to the news breaking that Hulu has retained investment bankers. Obviously there's been a lot of speculation this week about a sale, and since Hulu's main asset is exclusive online distribution rights to its 3 owners' programs, I maintain that to the extent that those rights are diluted, Hulu's valuation will diminish and a sale will be more challenging.
Click here to listen to the podcast (12 minutes, 32 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Deals & Financings
Topics: Hulu
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OK, Hulu's for Sale; Can a Deal Get Done and Who are the Frontrunners?
Following yesterday's rumors, the LA Times is now reporting that Hulu has hired two investment banks, Guggenheim Partners and Morgan Stanley, toexplore a potential sale. As I described in Here's Why Any Deal For Hulu Is Unlikely, the banks have their work cut out for them. The critical issue is that Hulu's main asset - exclusive next-day distribution rights to 3 of the 4 broadcast TV networks' programs (ABC, FOX and NBC) - will be at the heart of Hulu's valuation. (Note that just 6 months ago Hulu's plan to go public was undermined by these same rights not being viewed as sufficiently long-term).
To the extent that the rights get diluted (e.g. become non-exclusive, limit monetization opportunities, delay program release windows, reduce the number of programs, etc.), acquirers will ratchet down their valuations accordingly. And this is where the banks' task will become especially complicated; each of the networks' owners (Disney, News Corp. and Comcast) has very different strategic objectives which are further clouded by all the uncertainty that online and mobile video has created. Pinning down if and how they would work with each specific bidder will be quite the Rubik's cube exercise.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Deals & Financings
Topics: Comcast, Disney, Hulu, News Corp.
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Here's Why Any Deal For Hulu Is Unlikely
Late yesterday, the WSJ reported that an unnamed company made an unsolicited offer to acquire Hulu, prompting Hulu's board to consider soliciting other offers. Following up, the LA Times reported that Yahoo is the bidder. However, neither article cited any named sources and so it's unclear how legit any of this is. But even if it is legit, the odds of any Hulu acquisition at this point are actually quite low. Here's why:
Categories: Aggregators, Deals & Financings
Topics: Comcast, Disney, Hulu, News Corp.
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comScore: YouTube's Time Per Viewer In May Tops 5 Hours, More Than Next 5 Sites COMBINED
comScore released its May 2011 U.S. online video rankings today which once again illustrated the extent to which YouTube remains the 800-pound gorilla of the online video market. For the first time, YouTube's time spent per viewer during the month exceeded 5 hours, coming in at 5 hours, 11 minutes. That reflects nearly 2.2 billion viewing sessions generated from over 147 million unique viewers (83.5% of all Americans who watched any online video in May).
Looked at another way, YouTube's 5 hours, 11 minutes of viewership is more than the next 5 properties ranked had during the month, combined. The number 6 property, Microsoft's sites, had 46.5 million visitors for the month, less than a 1/3 of YouTube's, and 252 million viewing sessions, just 1/9 of YouTube's (see below). Hulu is the only property remotely close to YouTube in viewing time per user, racking up 3 hours, 38 minutes per viewer in May from 196 million viewing sessions. But Hulu had 28.5 million unique viewers in May, less than 1/5 of YouTube's.
Categories: Advertising, Aggregators
Topics: comScore, Hulu, YouTube
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New Research Shows Netflix Is A Catalyst for Cord-Cutting and Cord-Shaving
The Diffusion Group released interesting research yesterday which supports a view that I've had for a while: heavy Netflix streaming usage correlates with a propensity to cut back on pay-TV services. Although Netflix has strenuously
tried to position itself as a low-priced compliment to pay-TV services, the reality is that for some pay-TV subscribers who have begun shifting their viewing hours to Netflix streaming, the two are more substitutes than compliments. As I've argued, these are primarily people who are entertainment-oriented, don't care about live sports, are comfortable with on-demand, not live-viewing, are budget-constrained, or some combination of all of these.
The headline of the research is that the number of Netflix streamers considering downgrading their pay-TV service doubled year-over-year from 16% to 32%. But to me the key nugget is that among those who said they are likely to downgrade or eliminate their pay-TV service, 61% of moderate to heavy Netflix streamers cite online video usage as the top reason for doing so (with two-thirds of these citing Netflix specifically), while just 24% point to economic issues as their top reason. Conversely, for all Netflix streamers, almost half point to economic issues as their main reason (e.g. "cost of service" and "need to save money"), with just 34% pointing to online video usage as their top reason.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Netflix, The Diffusion Group
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YouTube Has Been a Home Run for Google and the Online Video Industry
Back in October, 2006, when Google announced its intention to acquire YouTube, the fledgling, but already-dominant video upload/sharing site, for $1.65 billion, many observers thought it was a wild swing by Google, and
further evidence of its profligate ways. Critics cited YouTube's thin UGC-based business model, its minimal revenues and its skyrocketing hosting/delivery costs caused by surging usage. Even though the deal was all in stock, it indeed looked like a rich price, and an unjustifiably huge short-term reward to YouTube's founders and investors.
Yet yesterday's news from YouTube, that a staggering 48 hours of video are now uploaded to the site each minute, and that it hit a recent peak of 3 billion video views in a single day, both underscore how YouTube has been a home run for both Google and for the larger online video industry. YouTube's ongoing viewership dominance is a rare "winner take all" situation in which second place video upload/sharing competitors are practically off the radar screen. Google now owns the dominant asset in one of the fastest-growing sectors of the Internet, which has huge revenue potential as consumer adoption of online video and devices soars. That $1.65 billion looks cheap now, all the more so given the durability of Google's own robust ad business.
Categories: Aggregators
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Why Cord-Cutting May Actually Be Good News for Cable Operators After All
Yesterday's big headlines - that Netflix now accounts for almost 30% of all downstream Internet traffic - is further evidence of the popularity of the company's streaming service, and also a preview of the significant structural changes that lie ahead in the over-the-top (OTT), broadband ISP, and pay-TV industries. Specifically, as Netflix and other OTT providers' surging traffic compels broadband ISPs to administer strict bandwidth usage caps and adopt usage based pricing ("UBP"), the stage will be set for a new era in how tens of millions of consumers decide which in-home entertainment services they subscribe to. If you thought that would be very bad news for cable operators specifically, it might be time to think again.
Cable operators and programming networks are the focal point of upcoming change. Operators in particular, because they are both the largest providers of both subscription video services and broadband Internet services, are really at center stage. Much of the hype around "cord-cutting" over the last year has implied they are on the losing end of this potential activity. Often overlooked however, is the fact that as consumption shifts to OTT sources, consumers' bandwidth needs escalate. As such, the door opens for them to institute UBP, as AT&T has recently done.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Netflix
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Netflix Inks Miramax Deal; Streaming Movies Still Plenty Important
Netflix is announcing a new multi-year deal with independent film studio Miramax, giving it streaming access to hundreds of films in the U.S., including Best Picture winners "The English Patient" and "Shakespeare in Love" plus otherslike "Good Will Hunting," "Pulp Fiction," "Kill Bill," "The Piano," etc. In all, the films coming to Netflix have gained 284 Oscar nominations and won 68 times. Miramax was recently spun-off from Disney, and this is the first time the films have become available in any digital subscription service.
The deal is another significant win for Netflix and underscores the point that movies are still plenty important to the company's streaming content strategy, despite the fact that most of its recent content acquisitions have been catalog TV programs. The challenge with acquiring streaming film rights is that "windowing" (i.e. the process by which a film passes through predetermined distribution outlets - theatrical, VOD, DVD, online sell-through, etc.) is still quite strictly enforced by studios, making it challenging for Netflix to accelerate its acquisition efforts.
Categories: Aggregators, FIlms, Studios
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