VideoNuze Posts

I'm pleased to present the 350th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

This week we return to the cost of sports and specifically why sports TV will be under pressure in 2017. Colin noted new SNL Kagan data this week that sports programming now costs pay-TV operators $18.37/month, which is 40% of their total programming budget. Colin also noticed that DirecTV is planning to increase its rates by $2-$6/month next month, which it blamed on the rising costs of programming.

These types of increases will no doubt contribute to a rising level of cord-cutting and cord-nevering, especially for entertainment-centric viewers who now have more choices of great TV shows to watch than ever and therefore have less reason to pay for expensive multichannel bundles. We’ve seen some of this effect already in the soft NFL ratings this season. Then there’s the question of where skinny bundles will fit in with sports; they’ll almost certainly have to keep sports to a minimum to maintain low rates.

As we discuss, all of this threatens the unique value of sports as a firewall for pay-TV, live viewing and advertising - the reasons why sports rights have ballooned in the first place. 2017 is going to be a very important in redefining sports’ actual value in the video ecosystem.

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With programmatic video and TV ad spending forecast to increase to $15 billon in 2018, our opening session at last Wednesday’s SHIFT conference set the stage with a candid discussion around where programmatic video and TV advertising are today, what the role of targeting/data is, what points of friction remain, and what kinds of advertisers and content providers are benefiting most, among other topics.

Participating in the session were Ian Ferreira (EVP, Programmatic, WideOrbit), Lauren Fisher (Sr. Analyst, eMarketer), Adam Heimlich (SVP, Programmatic, Managing Director of HX, Horizon Media), Dean Lucente (Sr. Director, Advanced TV & Programmatic Media Solutions, Comcast Spotlight), with Lorne Brown (Founder and CEO, Operative) moderating.

If you’re looking to understand all the main opportunities and challenges relating to programmatic video and TV, you’ll find this session very worthwhile.

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At last week’s SHIFT // 2016 Programmatic Video & TV Ad Summit, we were privileged to have Lauren Fisher, senior analyst at eMarketer, kick off the day by presenting details behind her forecast that programmatic video and TV ad spending will hit $15 billion in 2018, more than doubling from 2016’s estimated $7 billion.

In her 15-minute presentation, Lauren highlighted the critical roles of data, targeting, audience fragmentation, mobile and connected TVs in driving programmatic video & TV ad spending forward. Below is the video of her presentation, and her slides are available here.

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When HBO Now launched in April, 2015, its $14.99/month price was well above competing SVOD services such as Netflix ($11.99/month), Hulu (ad-free $11.99/month) and Amazon ($8.99/month or included with Prime for $99/year). On the one hand, an argument could be made that an HBO subscription is more valuable due to HBO’s rich library and therefore should be priced higher than newer competitors. But HBO’s market-skimming high price strategy means its more aggressively priced competitors are growing far faster than HBO, enabling them to have greater scale, which will be the key to future success.

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I'm pleased to present the 349th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia.

DirecTV Now, the latest skinny bundle to launch, was unveiled on Monday. In this week’s podcast, Colin and I provide our initial assessment. Given AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson’s bold reveal a few weeks ago that it would include over a 100 channels for just $35/month, there’s been a lot of anticipation that DirecTV Now could be a genuine industry disruptor.

Well, it turns out the 100+ channels are actually available at $60/month (the “Go Big” tier), though temporarily on special for $35/month. However, the base tier (“Live a Little”), which includes 60+ channels, turns out to be pretty decent itself, especially with a very aggressive $5/month HBO offer. What’s gained by moving up to Go Big for an extra $25 is actually not that impressive.

Still, as we discuss, with no DVR, limited VOD, scarce broadcast TV (and no CBS at all) and a 2-stream cap, DirecTV Now feels like a niche product. At least for now, that means it will have little impact on incumbent pay-TV operators, tamping down concerns it could roil the industry. Skinny bundles still have lots of challenges, though 2017 is going to be an active year, especially with Hulu and YouTube coming, so it will be worth keeping a close eye on whole category.

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In a move that was long, long overdue, Netflix announced yesterday that it was enabling downloading of content to iOS and Android mobile devices. Not all shows and movies are available for download, but importantly, it looks like most, if not all, of Netflix’s original productions are included. I tried downloading  last night and it worked perfectly.

I’ve been saying since 2012 that downloading is a bona fide killer app, after I first started using TiVo’s excellent downloading feature to watch recordings on my iPad when traveling. Amazon totally understood the value of downloading as well, enabling it back in September, 2015. In a press release that both touted the new feature and implicitly tweaked Netflix, Amazon proclaimed it as “The First and Only Subscription Streaming Service to Offer This Feature.”

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The SHIFT // 2016 Programmatic Video & TV Advertising Summit is tomorrow, Wednesday, November 30th in NYC. If you've been debating whether to attend, this is your last chance to decide. Here are some incentives:

Over 50 industry leaders will be speaking on 12 sessions. Executive speakers represent companies including A+E Networks, ABC, Business Insider, Conde Nast, Fox Networks, GroupM, Havas Media, Horizon Media, Initiative, Magna Global, Roku, Spotify, Turner, Univision,The Weather Company, Xaxis plus many others.

Our 2 amazing keynote guests are Dan Lovinger, EVP, Advertising Sales, NBC Sports Group, who will be interviewed by Mike Shields from the Wall Street Journal and Amanda Richman, President, Starcom USA, who will be interviewed by Matt Spiegel, SVP, MediaLink.

Over 400 industry colleagues are registered, guaranteeing a premier day of networking and learning.

All paid registrants are entered to win 1 of 3 Roku Ultra 4K players. Perfect for yourself or for a stocking stuffer gift this holiday season.

Many thanks to our 16 generous sponsors including Premier Partners Altitude Digital, AOL, SpotX, VertaMedia and Videology; Headline Partners Alphonso, Beachfront Media, Cedato, FreeWheel, Operative, Placemedia, Teads, TiVo and WideOrbit; and Branding Partners JW Player and Roku.

Please join us!

Learn more and register now!

Our SHIFT // 2016 Programmatic Video & TV Advertising Summit is coming up just 1 week from today, on November 30th in NYC.

eMarketer is forecasting that programmatic video & TV ad spending will more than double from $6.9 billion in 2016 to $15 billion in 2015. eMarketer’s senior analyst Lauren Fisher will kick off SHIFT, presenting her analysis behind the forecast, including key drivers and challenges. Lauren will then join a panel moderated by Operative’s CEO and founder Lorne Brown, which will further explore the big trends driving programmatic.

Following will be 11 sessions throughout the day, covering all of the most important aspects of programmatic video & TV. Automation and data are poised to be a much bigger part of video & TV advertising, as the entire industry responds to buyers’ shifting preferences and the influence of leaders like Google and Facebook.

Our morning keynote interview is with Dan Lovinger, EVP, Advertising Sales, NBC Sports Group and our afternoon keynote interview is with Amanda Richman, President of Starcom USA. In addition, Lisa Valentino, SVP, Network Sales and Partnerships, Conde Nast & Chief Revenue Officer, Conde Nast Entertainment will be featured in an afternoon spotlight fireside chat.

All SHIFT paid attendees will be entered to win 1 of 3 Roku Ultra 4K players, generously provided by Roku. Additional discounts are available on 5-packs and 10-packs. And, startups and students can register for the reduced $245 ticket (contact me for the code).

In addition to SHIFT’s high-impact program, there will be lots of great networking opportunities with speakers and hundreds of attendees.

Please join us for this top-notch day of learning and networking around programmatic video & TV.

Learn more and register now!

And have a Happy Thanksgiving!