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Now We Know: Netflix Modeling Churn At Record 6.5 Million Subscribers in Q3 '11 Due to Effect of Pricing Change
A central question following Netflix's recent decision to separate DVD and streaming plans - driving some subscribers' rates up by 60% - was what effect it would have on churn. The hue and cry from outraged subscribers in the days after the decision was announced certainly indicated it would be meaningful. But it was anyone's best guess what it would actually be.
Now, with Netflix's Q3 '11 subscriber forecast included in its Q2 earnings release, plus a few assumptions I've made, it appears as though Netflix itself is modeling churn of approximately 6.5 million U.S. subscribers this quarter, a record for the company that could wipe out almost all of its quarterly gross subscriber additions in the U.S. (see below for a 2-year churn chart). The 6.5 million includes around 2.5-3 million incremental subscribers lost - presumably due to the price increase - over and above an expected churn of 3.5-4 million subscribers for the quarter.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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Hulu Sale Process Has Become One Big Leak-a-thon
Late last week when Bloomberg reported that Apple is "considering making a bid" for Hulu, it inevitably ignited a series of follow-on articles and tweets
from other outlets, amplifying the perception of seriousness. How meaningful "considering making a bid" actually is nobody but the insiders really know. However, the Apple "news" underscored how the process of selling Hulu has become one big leak-a-thon, with bankers and others involved with the process continuously leaking selective nuggets of information to major media outlets as unnamed sources, no doubt with an eye to shaping how the sale process plays itself out.
In fact, even the decision to sell Hulu has never been officially acknowledged by Hulu itself; rather, the LA Times reported that bankers had been retained. That news was preceded by leaks that Yahoo had approached Hulu about an acquisition, that Hulu was considering selling itself, and that Fox, one of Hulu's owners and key content suppliers had renewed its license deal. In the month since these tidbits were released, there have been numerous other leaks, which I have listed below with links, noting the anonymous references each article cites (apologies to any I may have missed).
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Deals & Financings
Topics: Comcast, Disney, Hulu, News Corp.
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #105 - Coldwell Banker's On Location - July 22, 2011
Daisy Whitney and I are pleased to present the 105th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for July 22, 2011.
In this week's podcast, Daisy and I broaden our focus beyond how media companies are using online video by discussing Coldwell Banker's "On Location" YouTube channel, which I wrote about earlier this week. The customized mapping unit in On Location allows home buyers to easily find and play videos about homes that meet their criteria as a starting point in their search process. Daisy notes that On Location is another example of how consumers are able to take better control and use online tools to educate themselves. Smart companies like Coldwell Banker are using online video to reinvent the way they do business and stay relevant in the changing digital world.
Click here to listen to the podcast (11 minutes, 56 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Brand Marketing, Podcasts
Topics: Coldwell Banker, Podcast, YouTube
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VINDICO Served 5 Billion Video Ads in Q2 '11, Estimated 40% Market Share
Video ad platform VINDICO posted a strong Q2 '11, serving 5 billion video ads, up from 1.8 billion in Q2 '10. When VINDICO compares this amount to the
approximately 13.7 billion video ads that comScore reported as delivered during Q2, VINDICO estimates it has close to 40% market share. The company reported that it is now working with 200 clients, a 400% increase over last year, which includes 21 of the top 50 TV advertisers.
Categories: Advertising
Topics: VINDICO
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SNL Kagan Forecasting 10% of U.S. Homes Will Cut the Cord by 2015
Researcher SNL Kagan is forecasting that 10% U.S. homes (12.1 million) will cut the cord on their pay-TV subscriptions by the end of 2015, substituting in over-the-top alternatives. At the end of 2011, 4% or 4.5 million homes will have done so. Still, Kagan sees pay-TV subscriptions actually increasing, though not at a rate fast enough to maintain current penetration levels (see yearly forecast after the break).
Kagan isn't providing any additional profile information on these cord-cutters, but as I've said before, I think the most vulnerable buckets are the "cord-nevers" (i.e. college grads and others who simply don't sign up for pay-TV service in the first place) and entertainment-only viewers who don't care about live sports that are only available on cable TV channels.
Categories: Cable TV Operators
Topics: SNL Kagan
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SupersonicAds CEO Sees Social Game Incented Video Model As the "New Prime Time"
Incented video views in social games are all the rage and yesterday, SupersonicAds, one of the many players in this space, raised a $4.2 million financing from Greylock (bringing its total to date to $6 million). I caught up with SupersonicAds CEO and co-founder Gil Shoham who sees this model as the "new prime time" as it marries the massive usage of social game use in Facebook and elsewhere with brands' desire to reach the audience.
For those not familiar, companies like SupersonicAds (and others such as Jun Group, Blue Noodle, WildTangent, Social Vibe, etc.) work with social game publishers and social networks to promote video ads that reward users with virtual currency for viewing (see Kellogg's example below). Gil sees the reward as the "hook" to get users watching, but the post-viewing engagement (e.g. "Likes," click-throughs, sign-ups, etc.) are based solely on the brand's appeal and the strength of the creative. Gil said 50-80% of users watch the full video, with an average 20% of those "Liking" the brand and 40% returning later to visit the brand's web site.
Categories: Advertising, Games, Social Media
Topics: Facebook, Greylock, SupersonicAds
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New CBS Licensing Deal Doesn't Offer Amazon Much Differentiation vs. Netflix
Amazon and CBS announced a licensing agreement this morning, which, while a step in the right direction for Amazon Prime, doesn't seem to offer it much differentiation. The press release states that 18 CBS TV programs are part of the deal, though the only ones identified are "The Tudors," "Numb3rs," "Medium," the "Star Trek" series, "Frasier" and "Cheers." A quick glance at Netflix's catalog shows that all past seasons of "Numb3rs," "Medium," "Cheers," "The Tudors" and the original 3 seasons of "Star Trek" are available on streaming. Only "Frasier" isn't available on streaming, though it is on DVD.
Perhaps some of the other programs in the deal aren't already available on Netflix, but the group identified today underscores how networks' and studios' non-exclusive approach means that any distributor with a willingness to pay will get essentially the same content.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters
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KIT Digital Sees 39% Revenue Jump in Q2 '11 to $48 Million; Provides Guidance of $210 Million for Full Year
Video management software provider KIT Digital has released preliminary Q2 '11 results, with record revenue of $48 million (up 39% from Q1 '11up 108% from Q2 '10) and EBITDA of $9.5 million (up 34% from Q1 '11 and 125% from Q2 '10). In addition KIT provided full year 2011 revenue guidance of $210 million.
In an interview, Gannon Hall, EVP, Global Marketing and Adam Davis, Global Communications Manager told me that approximately 30-35% of the Q2
growth was organic, with the remaining coming from growth through acquisitions. Over the past six months KIT Digital has acquired at least 4 companies and it has recently completed "Project Delta," an internal integration and restructuring process.
Topics: KIT Digital
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