VideoNuze Posts

If you're a Netflix follower (and these days, who in the industry isn't?) then this morning you're being greeted by many cheerful headlines regarding the company's Q4 '11 results, released late yesterday. A sampling includes: "Netflix shares surging after a blowout quarter," "Netflix wins over analysts by adding customers," "Netflix recovers subscribers" and "A turnaround at Netflix, as its mail sector shrinks." All of that is contributing to a run-up in Netflix's stock price, based on optimism that the company is back on track, and ready to surge again.

To be fair, given the negative sentiment shrouding Netflix for the last 6 months and dramatically reduced expectations, the results did show some glimmers of a turnaround. But, if you read past the headlines, look closely at the numbers and listen to management's discussion of the results, what emerges for me are the staggering ongoing consequences of last summer's Qwikster/price change fiasco, the continued pursuit of an unnecessary, hyper-aggressive phase-out of its core DVD-by-mail business, murkiness about its international prospects and near-certain intensifying competition in streaming. Given all that, I think it's still way too early to conclude Netflix is back on track, particularly in the U.S.

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Netflix will report its Q4 '11 earnings later today, but whereas I've taken stands in past quarters about subscriber acquisition results, this time around I can only say your guess is as good as mine. Subsequent to last summer's Qwikster and price increase fiascos, Netflix entered a zone of uncertainty about whether and how its subscriber growth in its critical domestic segment will restart.

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I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 117th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for Jan. 20, 2012. In this week's podcast we dig into UltraViolet (UV), the digital library/format recently launched to enable consumers with multi-device streaming access to Hollywood movies.

It's still early days for UV, but there have been some hiccups in the rollout, with numerous longer-term challenges looming as we detail. Still, UV is a critical initiative to help studios reinvigorate the sell-through model that has declined in the wake of lower-cost options like Netflix, Redbox, Amazon, etc. and so there are strong incentives to make it successful. We also review new UV messaging that's rolling out and what's ahead for 2012. Listen in to learn more!

Click here to listen to the podcast (18 minutes, 2 seconds)



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