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Will Netflix Report 20 Million Subscribers Later Today?
Netflix will report its Q4 and full year 2010 earnings later today. There's no question that the results will come in very strong given the momentum the company had going into the holiday quarter. But one interesting question is whether Netflix will surpass the 20 million subscriber mark for the first time. While the number holds no other particular value than it being large and round, it would still be a significant milestone and also make Netflix the second largest video subscription company, by subscriber count, in the U.S. behind only Comcast (who it will pass at some point in the 1st half of 2011).
For its part Netflix is forecasting to have ended Q4 with between 19 million and 19.7 million subscribers. That would represent an increase over Q3's 16,933,000 of between 2,067,000 to 2,767,000 subscriber additions. To hit the 20 million number, Netflix would have to gain 3,067,000 subscribers, or about 10.8% more than the high end of its guidance. One way to gauge the likelihood of this happening is to look at the company's recent actual subscriber additions vs. its guidance. Per the chart below, in 2 of the last 3 quarters, the company has in fact beaten the high end of its forecast, in Q1 '10 (by 10.9%) and in Q3 '10 (by 13.7%). It's also worth noting that Q4 '09's sub gain of 1,159,000 was more than double its Q3 '09 addition of 510,000. While I wouldn't expect a Q4 '10 to Q3 '10 ratio like that, if it were to happen then Netflix would be far above 3 million in Q4.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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thePlatform and Adobe Partner For Secure Flash Video Delivery
Premium content providers seeking to securely publish video using Flash will get a hand from thePlatform and Adobe, which are announcing a new partnership. Under the deal, customers of thePlatform's mpx video
management system who use Adobe's Flash Access software for content protection will be able to use it via an integrated workflow. Flash Access also provides HTTP dynamic streaming (adaptive bit rate) and monetization options like VOD, subscription, EST and rental.
Another aspect of the collaboration focuses on Android-powered mobile devices. Users of these devices accessing content delivered via thePlatform will have their video player using Flash optimized for their device. thePlatform's customers can also use Adobe's OSMF (Open Source Media Framework) and thePlatform's "Feeds Service" so that video can be delivered in multiple playback circumstances. Lastly, thePlatform's mpx console used Flash Builder 4 and has an AIR client so that file uploads are more efficient.
Categories: Technology
Topics: Adobe, Flash, thePlatform
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Vid.ly Makes Sharing Videos To Mobile Devices a Snap
If you've ever sent one of your "must see" video clips around to friends or family, only to have them exasperatingly tell you "It didn't play for me!" when they tried accessing it on their mobile device, then a clever new service called Vid.ly is going to make you smile. Vid.ly's mission is to radically simplify the video transcoding and playback process so that virtually all mobile devices or browsers can play any video - regardless of their original format. Given the confusing proliferation of formats - Flash, WebM, HTML5, etc. and devices (iOS, Android, Blackberry, game consoles, etc.) that is a significant value proposition.
Vid.ly's special appeal to consumers is that it puts a familiar URL-shortening, social media-friendly front-end on Encoding.com's cloud-based transcoding capability, which has been battle tested by 1,000+ content providers to date. But whereas URL shorteners like Bit.ly primarily focus on making very long URLs shorter and therefore more manageable for social media use, Vid.ly actually addresses the underlying playability of the video and also provides a short URL.
Categories: Devices, Encoding, Mobile Video
Topics: Encoding.com, Vid.ly
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Men's Health Magazine is Now Using Taboola for Video Recommendations
Men's Health magazine, owned by Rodale, has begun implementing Taboola's Video2Video product to power video recommendations on its web site. Currently Taboola recommendations appear on the Men's Health home page in the featured area, when a video is played through to the end (see below). Taboola recommendations also appear on embedded videos in articles. As I've written previously, with Taboola's high-quality recommendations, video view-throughs and overall views increase, leading to improved monetization.
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Verizon Challenges Net Neutrality Regulations
Yesterday Verizon appealed the FCC's new net neutrality regulations in the DC Court of Appeals, alleging that the FCC has exceeded its authority. The move is a little surprising given that last August Verizon seemed accepting of net neutrality, by submitting a joint net neutrality proposal with Google. What the two submitted and what the FCC eventually passed are different in a number of ways, but one way that they're similar is in the light regulatory touch granted to wireless Internet ISPs, which was a key focus of Verizon's given its massive wireless business. Even the treatment of wired ISPs wasn't terribly onerous, which is one of the reasons why a number of consumer advocacy organizations are also threatening a challenge to the FCC.
Other than trying to subvert the FCC's authority generally, it's not entirely clear to me what Verizon's trying to accomplish here. One thing's for sure, Verizon will have plenty of help from Republicans who are also challenging net neutrality.Categories: Regulation, Telcos
Topics: FCC, Net Neutrality, Verizon
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Jivox Launches Cross-Platform Video Ad Capability
(Friday update #2) Brands and agencies looking to use the same video ad across various platforms got a boost yesterday from Jivox, a video ad technology provider. As Jivox's CEO Diaz Nesamoney explained to me, brands/agencies can now either submit video to Jivox or they can use the company's tools in order to prepare the ad properly for multi-platform use. When an ad is to be delivered, Jivox detects the user's platform/device and sends a properly formatted and encoded ad in real-time. Importantly, Jivox's analytics provide insight into usage by platform/device, so brands/agencies can detect where the ad is working best. I view this as the first of many efforts by technology providers to simply the ad delivery process as platforms/devices proliferate.Categories: Advertising, Devices
Topics: Jivox
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WealthTV-Roku Deal Isn't a Predictor Of An A La Carte Future
(Friday update #3) The was a flutter of excitement this week by some who interpreted a new deal by WealthTV to make its 24/7 linear feed available to Roku users as evidence of an a la carte future. But that hope would be misplaced; WealthTV, a network with minimal pay-TV carriage (though a litany of regulatory appeals), bears no resemblance to widely distributed cable networks like USA, MTV and Discovery whose lifeblood is monthly pay-TV carriage fees.
Even though WealthTV's proposed $2.99/mo subscription fee is more than any of these networks receive, WealthTV's retail model means its subscriber penetration will be a tiny fraction of these cable nets, and that's after necessarily heavy marketing and promotion. Don't get me wrong, Roku and other connected devices are doing a fabulous job of bringing online content to TVs. But getting top-notch, current cable programs is nowhere on the horizon. This is doubly true given that this week's FCC approval of Comcast-NBCU was an explicit blessing of the cable model.
Categories: Cable Networks, Devices
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Samsung Notches 2 Million App Downloads
(Friday update #4) Samsung has now gained 2 million app downloads through its connected TVs and devices, with apps from YouTube, Hulu Plus, ESPN Next Level, AccuWeather, Google Maps and Texas Holdem leading the way. Samsung said there are 380 total apps available for download of which 259 are free. The 2 million milestone comes less than 2 months since Samsung announced its 1 millionth download. Some analysts, like my colleague Colin Dixon at The Diffusion Group, have criticized these new "SmartTVs" as actually being quite dumb, but Samsung's experience appears to show that the app model on TVs is beginning to catch on.
Categories: Devices
Topics: Samsung
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