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VideoNuze Report Podcast #106 - Fox's 8-Day Pay Window and Netflix's Q3 Churn - July 29, 2011
Daisy Whitney and I are pleased to present the 106th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for July 29, 2011.
In this week's podcast, Daisy and I dive into two topics - Fox's new exclusive 8-day authentication window, and Netflix's Q3 '11 subscriber churn. Regarding Fox, this week the network announced that it would limit online access to programs in the first 8 days following their airing to viewers who are authenticated as pay-TV subscribers (or are Hulu Plus subscribers). As I wrote, I think the move has significant implications for Hulu, and the broader online video landscape. We discuss Fox's motivations, the role of retransmission consent fee payments and what might be coming next.
We then shift to discuss estimates of Netflix's Q3 '11 subscriber churn, due to its recent price change. By my calculations, Netflix itself is estimating it could lose approximately 6.5 million subscribers in the U.S. in Q3, which would be a record for the company. The amount attributable solely to the price change could be in the 2.5 - 3 million subscriber range. In the wake of all the speculation about how subscribers will react, Daisy discloses the surprising decision she and her family have made with regard to their Netflix subscription. Listen in to find out!
Click here to listen to the podcast (14 minutes, 34 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Podcasts
Topics: FOX, Hulu, Netflix, Podcast
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Amazon Gets Universal Movies to Stream That Netflix Already Has
Amazon announced a new licensing deal with NBCU that gives it streaming rights to a batch of older movies from Universal Pictures, bumping to 9,000
the number of movies and TV shows available for its Amazon Prime Members. However, the move is unlikely to have the folks at Netflix quaking in their boots; like Amazon's licensing deal with CBS from last week, virtually all of the Universal movies are already available on Netflix (by my count 9 of the 11 titles identified in today's press release can be streamed on Netflix while only "Elizabeth" and "Fletch" are available solely on DVD).
Don't get me wrong, more content is always a good thing, and these deals, along with an acquisition of Pushbutton, a UK app developer for connected devices, suggest things may be ramping up at Amazon. But the content deals do underscore the catch-up game that Amazon is playing with Netflix. That's the dynamic in today's market - Netflix got a head start in aggregating Hollywood content for online distribution. Now, to the extent it has a willingness to pay, Amazon must go do similar deals.
Categories: Aggregators, FIlms, Studios
Topics: Amazon, Netflix, Universal
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Will Wal-Mart Expand VUDU Into Subscriptions and Compete With Netflix?
Wal-Mart's news this week that it has more deeply integrated its movie streaming service VUDU into its web site and e-commerce operations is a
good step forward in competing better with Amazon and iTunes. However, because the vast majority of users prefer all-you-can-eat subscription services, the reality is that VUDU's new visibility will likely have little impact on Netflix (except maybe for lighter users who are upset by Netflix's recent price change and aren't deterred by VUDU's per title rental model and restrictive expiration policies).
That raises the question of when might Wal-Mart really step up to the plate and expand VUDU into subscriptions, offering a true alternative to Netflix? It seems like the time may finally be right to make the move. In particular, Netflix's recent price change, separating DVD-by-mail and streaming-only services presents a golden opportunity for Wal-Mart to go on the offensive. Here's the logic:
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: CBS, NBCU, Netflix, VUDU, Wal-Mart
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Fox Unveils Exclusive 8-Day Authenticated Window For Online Shows: Major Ouch For Hulu
Assuming Fox, one of Hulu's owners, was hoping to sell the site for top dollar, then you have to wonder about the consequences of a new plan it has announced to create an exclusive 8-day online viewing window solely for paying
subscribers of authorized distributors. The new plan is a major endorsement of pay-TV operators' TV Everywhere approach and could be the first salvo by broadcast TV networks in curtailing free online access to their programs. DISH Network is the first pay-TV operator to sign up for the new Fox plan.
For Hulu, the move would appear to be a double whammy. A key part of Hulu.com's value proposition and its ability to drive huge traffic was offering next-day access to select programs from its parent broadcast networks. Under the new plan, users would lose coveted free next-day access (plus a week) unless they were authenticated. Less traffic of course means less advertising revenue.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters
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Digital Radio and Video Advertising Mix As Slacker Signs Up With YuMe
Digital radio is all the rage these days, and now Slacker Radio, one of the key players, is looking to further monetize its audience through video advertising, by partnering with ad manager YuMe. Under the deal, being announced this morning, Slacker will use YuMe's ACE for Publishers (AFP) ad serving platform to insert ads across multiple devices. Slacker will sell its own ads and will also tap into YuMe's ad network.
Categories: Advertising, Music
Topics: Slacker Radio, YuMe
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Now We Know: Netflix Modeling Churn At Record 6.5 Million Subscribers in Q3 '11 Due to Effect of Pricing Change
A central question following Netflix's recent decision to separate DVD and streaming plans - driving some subscribers' rates up by 60% - was what effect it would have on churn. The hue and cry from outraged subscribers in the days after the decision was announced certainly indicated it would be meaningful. But it was anyone's best guess what it would actually be.
Now, with Netflix's Q3 '11 subscriber forecast included in its Q2 earnings release, plus a few assumptions I've made, it appears as though Netflix itself is modeling churn of approximately 6.5 million U.S. subscribers this quarter, a record for the company that could wipe out almost all of its quarterly gross subscriber additions in the U.S. (see below for a 2-year churn chart). The 6.5 million includes around 2.5-3 million incremental subscribers lost - presumably due to the price increase - over and above an expected churn of 3.5-4 million subscribers for the quarter.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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Hulu Sale Process Has Become One Big Leak-a-thon
Late last week when Bloomberg reported that Apple is "considering making a bid" for Hulu, it inevitably ignited a series of follow-on articles and tweetsfrom other outlets, amplifying the perception of seriousness. How meaningful "considering making a bid" actually is nobody but the insiders really know. However, the Apple "news" underscored how the process of selling Hulu has become one big leak-a-thon, with bankers and others involved with the process continuously leaking selective nuggets of information to major media outlets as unnamed sources, no doubt with an eye to shaping how the sale process plays itself out.
In fact, even the decision to sell Hulu has never been officially acknowledged by Hulu itself; rather, the LA Times reported that bankers had been retained. That news was preceded by leaks that Yahoo had approached Hulu about an acquisition, that Hulu was considering selling itself, and that Fox, one of Hulu's owners and key content suppliers had renewed its license deal. In the month since these tidbits were released, there have been numerous other leaks, which I have listed below with links, noting the anonymous references each article cites (apologies to any I may have missed).
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Deals & Financings
Topics: Comcast, Disney, Hulu, News Corp.
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #105 - Coldwell Banker's On Location - July 22, 2011
Daisy Whitney and I are pleased to present the 105th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for July 22, 2011.
In this week's podcast, Daisy and I broaden our focus beyond how media companies are using online video by discussing Coldwell Banker's "On Location" YouTube channel, which I wrote about earlier this week. The customized mapping unit in On Location allows home buyers to easily find and play videos about homes that meet their criteria as a starting point in their search process. Daisy notes that On Location is another example of how consumers are able to take better control and use online tools to educate themselves. Smart companies like Coldwell Banker are using online video to reinvent the way they do business and stay relevant in the changing digital world.
Click here to listen to the podcast (11 minutes, 56 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Brand Marketing, Podcasts
Topics: Coldwell Banker, Podcast, YouTube
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