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Is "Cord-Cutting" a Big Deal or Not?
"Cord-cutting," the idea of disconnecting your cable/satellite/telco video subscription service in favor of online viewing only, got renewed attention this week as new research from a Canadian firm named Convergence Consulting Group said that 800,000 U.S. households have unplugged in the last 2 years. Though that number is a teeny-tiny fraction of the population that still takes subscription TV, the question begs, is this an early indicator of rampant cord-cutting to follow, or a blip that's unlikely to get that much bigger over time?
Back in the fall of '08 I asserted that for most people cord-cutting isn't going to be happening any time soon for 2 key reasons. First, that it's still relatively hard for most mainstream users to connect broadband to their TVs, which is an essential ingredient to long-form viewing. There's no question that this has gotten easier since, and will only get easier still. Eventually broadband to the TV will be ubiquitous. But until it is, cord-cutting raises technical and comfort challenges most people don't want to confront.
The bigger obstacle to cord-cutting is the loss of cable-only programming that isn't available for free online. Back in '08 the concept of TV Everywhere wasn't yet around. Now that it's beginning to rollout (albeit painfully slowly), it's evident that the cable ecosystem is determined to see cable programming remain accessible only to those who maintain a paid subscription.
My take is that cable programming is the key firewall against cord-cutting. For some, losing cable programs won't matter. But my guess is that for most, losing their favorite cable programs by cutting the cord will be a non-starter. As Conan's move this week to TBS illustrates, increasingly the most distinctive shows are on cable. And note the "firewall within the firewall" is marquee sports programming on channels like ESPN, TNT and Fox Sports, which isn't going online for free ever. This precludes virtually all true sports fans from cord-cutting.
Net-net, the debate about cord-cutting's potential needs to focus on how much value audiences place on their favorite cable programs. If it's a lot, then little cord-cutting will ensue; if it's a little - and there are suitable free online substitutes - then we'll see lots more cord-cutting.
(Note - all of this is fodder for our VideoSchmooze panel discussion on April 26th "Money Talks - Is Online Video Shifting to the Paid Model?" Early bird discounted registration expires today!)
What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators
Topics: Convergence Consulting Group
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Conan's Jump to TBS Shouldn't Really Surprise Anyone
Conan O'Brien's decision to move to TBS made a lot of headlines this week, with lots of reactions along the lines of "Conan's going from broadcast to cable? Huh?" and "Geez, TBS of all places?" But dig a little deeper and Conan's move shouldn't surprise anyone, as it represents yet another blurring of the distinction between broadcast TV and cable TV.
When it comes to bidding for expensive talent like Conan ($12 million/year reportedly), cable is at a big advantage to broadcast. The recession and ad spending downturn has highlighted the benefits of cable's dual-revenue stream (monthly distributor fees + advertising) model vs. broadcast's ad-only approach (which is further motivating broadcasters to seek retransmission consent payments). Last summer I wrote that the improving quality of cable's programming is becoming more obvious, as cable garnered 272 of the 487 Emmy nominations. This is a trend I expect will continue.
Distinctive cable programming - that isn't available for free online - is the major firewall against cord-cutting (see above for more on that this week). More than that, maintaining a valuable subscription offering, whether through cable, satellite or telco providers, is essential so that the downstream creative and production workforces that support on-camera talent like Conan can continue to thrive. Cord-cutting may seem enticing to many, but the reality is that if it becomes a groundswell, you can likely say goodbye to seeing top-tier talent on TV at all.
What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).
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David Pogue's "Video Wall" Explained
If you're a David Pogue fan like me, you were also likely wondering how he pulled off his recent "iPad Town Hall" which featured him interacting with 20 people in what appeared to be a live "video wall." The town hall video, which runs about 5 minutes is classic Pogue - funny, educational and fast moving.
This week Pogue shared the details of how he built the "video wall" which actually wasn't live, but was instead a mosaic of scripted QuickTime videos he solicited from his Twitter followers. He then embedded them all in a Keynote presentation and through some editing flair created the illusion that it was live. The result is very slick and showcases what a relative amateur can produce with some creativity and persistence.
What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).Categories: Devices, Newspapers
Topics: David Pogue, iPad
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #57 - April 16, 2010
Daisy Whitney and I are pleased to present the 57th edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for April 16, 2010.
Daisy and I are back from the NAB Show in Las Vegas and this week we share 2-3 key takeaways. For her part Daisy was impressed by the energy and mood at the show which was significantly brighter than last year. Daisy heard from a number of people contemplating new ventures, a big departure from last year when most people were hunkered down. Daisy shared further insights about specific companies she interviewed.
Then I talk a little more about my reactions to the Level 3 - Silverlight 3D streaming demo I saw in Microsoft's booth, which I wrote about on Tuesday, and also the new local TV station JV for mobile DTV that was unveiled at the show and which I wrote about yesterday.
Click here to listen to the podcast (14 minutes, 0 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: 3D, Mobile Video, Podcasts
Topics: 3D, Level 3, Mobile DTV, NAB Show, Podcast, Silverlight
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Broadcasters' New Mobile DTV Joint Venture Offers Potential
One of the more interesting things coming out of the NAB Show this week was the announcement by a dozen local TV station groups of a new mobile direct TV content service intended to reach 150 million Americans. The service, which is still unnamed, is backed by Belo, Cox, E.W. Scripps, Fox, Gannett, Hearst, ION, Media General, Meredith, NBC, Post-Newsweek and Raycom. No details on programming were revealed except to saying local and national news, sports and entertainment would be included.
For the last several years, it's felt as if local broadcasters have been on the short end as online and mobile delivery have gained steam. One looming threat has been from broadcast network partners, who have increasingly embraced online distribution, which threatens to shift audiences from consuming programs through local affiliates' stations to consuming at the networks' web sites and aggregators like Hulu.
More recently, the FCC's National Broadband Plan, with its "voluntary" spectrum reclamation would transfer valuable bandwidth to mobile carriers - a move that was quickly perceived as further marginalizing local broadcasters' role in the digital ecosystem. If this wasn't enough, the launch of Apple's iPad highlighted the growing role that consumer electronics devices - and the apps that are built for them - will play in empowering users to search and access content from many new sources, further fragmenting traditional broadcast audiences. All of this has unfolded against the recession's backdrop, which has suppressed consumer spending and local ad spending.
Now, with the new joint venture, local broadcasters seem to have the beginnings of a cohesive plan to show that they too have an important place in the digital era. Throughout the NAB Show various industry executives repeated the mantra that local broadcasters play a vital role in news, weather and emergency information, a not-so-subtle reminder to policy-makers that broadcasters shouldn't be shunted aside in favor of shiny new gadgets.
Still, it's early days for the venture and for mobile DTV in general. Next month a big DTV trial in Washington, DC is scheduled using the ATSC-M/H technical standard. The new JV doesn't have any agreements yet to put DTV tuners in handsets or with carriers for integration. Larger questions of governance still loom as well. Broad industry initiatives like this often suffer from members' differing goals, tactics and motivations. An even larger question is consumers' desire for the mobile DTV format. With countless viewing options already, and more coming every day, local stations' DTV efforts will be in a competitive battle for attention.
Big questions remain about what the new JV's ultimate impact will be, but at a minimum it at least appears to show that local broadcasters are getting serious about how they fit into the digital video ecosystem.
What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).
Categories: Broadcasters, Mobile Video
Topics: Belo, Cox, E.W. Scripps, FOX, Gannett, Hearst, ION, Media General, Meredith, NBC, Post-Newsweek, Raycom
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comScore's February 2010 Numbers Show Further Online Video Usage Declines
comScore released its Feb '10 online video rankings yesterday, which showed the 2nd straight month of usage declines in aggregate and for many of the top 10 sites. Total video views came in at 28.1 billion, vs. 32.4 billion in January and 33.2 billion in December '09. As I pointed out in my analysis of comScore's Jan numbers last month, and as the chart below shows, in each of the last 3 years, the period from December to February has seen flat to slightly declining viewership.
It's still too early in online video's evolution to form hard and fast conclusions about the impact of seasonality, but judging from the past 3 years it seems as though we're beginning to see the pattern. February is also a shorter month than either Dec or Jan, so this too plays a role in explaining the downward trend in viewership.
As usual, YouTube was the most-used video site, generating 11.9 billion views, down from 12.8 billion in Jan and 13.2 billion in Dec. YouTube's share jumped up to 40% in Jan, marking almost 2 years that the site's share of the overall video market has been plus or minus 3 percentage points of 40% share, a remarkable achievement given the growth of other video sites.
Hulu is one of those sites that achieved growth in Feb, increasing its video views to 912.5 million from January's 903 million, though both are down from the site's December record of just over a billion views. In Feb Hulu averaged 6.18 minutes viewed per video, the first time the site has been back up over 6 minutes since Sept '09. Hulu's audience came in at 39.2 million uniques, continuing to be stubbornly stuck around the 40 million mark for a full year. I've commented before that Hulu appears to be encountering a challenge broadening its user base. The deletion of the Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert programs will only make this challenge harder.
As the chart above also shows, in the past 2 years March has been a month when viewership rebounded, setting the stage for growth over the following 9 months. We'll see whether the same pattern starts to play out next month.
What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).
Categories:
Topics: comScore, Hulu, YouTube
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LiveU: High-Quality Live Broadcasting Gets Portable and Cheap
Among the more interesting conversations I had over the last few days at the NAB Show was with Avichai Cohen, COO and co-founder of LiveU, whose lightweight mobile video uplink solution opens up all kinds of new opportunities for remote broadcasting while also saving customers lots of money. LiveU has been on my radar for some time, but this was the first opportunity I've had to see its LU-30 device. I wasn't the only one interested; their booth was buzzing with activity.
The LU-30 incorporates 6 wireless aircards from multiple cellular service providers which are bonded together to provide a high-quality on-demand
video uplink. The device fits into a LiveU-provided backpack so the user is able to simply plug in their video camera and begin broadcasting remotely. Avichai explained that the company's patents focus on the bonding, load balancing and smooth delivery under highly variable circumstances. The device also takes in Ethernet and other connections if a customer wants alternative uplinks vs. wireless. The LU-30 interfaces with the LU-100 server in the studio where the video is processed for delivery to viewers.
Beyond the technology, LiveU also distinguishes itself with a simple monthly fee model of $1,500/mo for 30 hours of use, which Avichai said no customer has yet exceeded. That's a huge savings over renting a satellite or mobile uplink for $5,000/day. Even if the user is in an area where roaming charges apply, LiveU absorbs those costs so the flat monthly fee remains intact.
News and sports are the most logical applications for LiveU and Avichai said the company has added both domestic and international broadcast customers. The proliferation of live streaming events, and the trend toward multiple video captures to enhance social media and smartphone consumption, is another natural opportunity. To help penetrate the market, LiveU has partnered with companies like Livestream, Ustream and Kyte, who are in turn offering remote broadcasting as a service to their customers.
What do you think? Post a comment now (no sign-in required).
Categories: Technology
Topics: Kyte, LiveStream, LiveU, Ustream
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Netflix Signs Up Irdeto to Secure Streaming Delivery
Irdeto, the digital media security provider, is announcing this morning that Netflix has licensed the company's Cloakware Embedded Security software as
part of its solution to secure content streamed to multiple consumer devices. Cloakware is a set of tools to defend against unauthorized tampering and attacks. Irdeto has a broad customer base internationally and has lately been raising its profile in the U.S.
For Netflix, the push for enhanced security comes as the company begins expanding to additional CE devices beyond the desktop for its hugely popular Watch Instantly streaming feature. The iPad is the first new device Netflix has targeted, and its app is considered one of the most widely downloaded in the iPad's first weeks on the market. No doubt this success will spawn further Netflix Watch Instantly implementations, particularly as competing tablets come on the market in 2010 and smartphones proliferate, especially those powered by Android.
Categories: Aggregators, DRM
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