More affirmation that advertisers and agencies are shifting spending to video: a new Forrester survey has found that 77% of advertisers and 70% of agencies plan to increase their video ad spending in the next 2 years. In addition, 73% of media companies plan to offer more video inventory to meet demand.
The data is based on a survey Forrester conducted of 529 executives at advertisers, agencies and media companies in 8 countries, including the U.S., for a report commissioned by Teads.
Forrester has updated its forecast for the real-time bidding (RTB) segment of the online video advertising market, calling for a 71% increase in 2013 spending to $686M and another 66% increase in 2014 to $1.14 billion (see chart below). Forrester sees the increase in RTB spending accounting for 44% of the overall growth in online video advertising between 2012 and 2014. The forecast is part of a commissioned report for SpotXchange, available here.
Forrester points to 4 drivers of RTB's rapid growth: more diverse pricing mechanisms that will increase RTB's appeal, especially for premium publishers; greater acceptance of RTB for mid-flight optimization; media buyers' desire to compliment traditional reach and frequency campaigns with targeted, engagement-oriented RTB campaigns; and automated RTB buying (and programmatic in general) that will reduce friction in the complicated online video market.
Paid video forecast to surpass free - A Strategy Analytics forecast that got attention this week says that the global paid online video market will be worth $3.8B in 2009, exceeding the global free online video segment which will total $3.5B. I haven't seen the details of the forecast, but I'm very curious what's being included in each of these numbers as both seem way too high to me. The firm forecasts the two segments to grow at comparable rates (37% and 39%), suggesting that their size will remain relatively even. I suspect we're going to be seeing a lot of other research suggesting the paid market is going to be far larger than the ad-supported market as sentiment seems to be shifting toward subscriptions and paid downloads.
Consumer generated video contests remain popular - VideoNuze readers know I've been intrigued for a while now about contests that brands are regularly running which incent consumers to create and submit their own videos. Just this week I read about two more brands jumping on the bandwagon: Levi's and Daffy's retail stores. NewTeeVee had a good write-up on the subject, citing new research from Forrester which reviewed 102 different contests and found the average prize valued at $4,505. I see no end in sight for these campaigns as the YouTube generation realizes it's more lucrative to pour their time into these contests than training their cats to skateboard. Brands too are recognizing the wealth of amateur (read cheap!) talent out there and are moving to harness it.
MySpace has lots of work ahead to become a meaningful entertainment portal - The WSJ ran a piece on Monday based on an interview with Rupert Murdoch in which he was quoted as saying MySpace will be refocused "as an entertainment portal." That may be the winning ticket for MySpace, but I'm not totally convinced. MySpace has been in a downward spiral lately, with a 5% decline in audience over the past year, a 30% headcount reduction and an executive suite housecleaning. While always strong in music, according to comScore, its 48 million video viewers in April '09 were less than half YouTube's 108 million, while its 387 million video views were about 5% of YouTube's 6.8 billion. Clearly MySpace has a very long way to go to give YouTube serious competition. It will be interesting to see if the new management team Murdoch has installed at MySpace can pull off this transition.