Following are 3 video predictions for 2012 from Mark Trefgarne, co-founder and CEO of LiveRail, a real-time video ad technology platform for publishers, networks and agencies.
1. Video - RTB reaches 10% of impressions Today, only a small minority of video ad impressions, perhaps 2-3%, are bought via Real Time Bidding ("RTB"). By Q4 next year, this number will be closer to 10%. The largest and most sophisticated companies in our space have spent much of 2011 researching and preparing to deploy RTB capable ad technologies, including private exchanges on the supply side and video DSPs on the buy-side. 2. Dramatic growth in agency sophistication As budgets shift into online video, the pressure will grow to spend those budgets efficiently, impactfully and to demonstrate real ROI. Agencies will need to develop deep expertise in the space and will begin to deploy more sophisticated technology to enable them to own more of the video ad process, including targeting, optimization and verification, to demonstrate higher value to clients, reduce their dependence on intermediaries and gain deeper insights into what portions of their campaigns really perform. 3. Connected TVs become a meaningful inventory source but still face challenges. The launch of the new Xbox dashboard, Google TV 2.0, and the prospect of a new Apple TV all point to a significant rise in the number of households with internet-connected TVs. This will create a wave of inventory opportunities, particularly as these next-generation boxes give content owners with the ability to build their own ad-integrated apps. However a lack of standardization during 2012 will leave significant fragmentation of the ecosystem, making it difficult, if not impossible, for advertisers to deploy large-scale cross-platform campaigns with consistent creatives, targeting and metrics. Traditional broadcast TV will still seem to be by far the easiest way to get scale.
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