YouTube in its first decade has both transformed itself and the industry, which conjures the possibilities of what it can be by 2020.  YouTube’s audience, currently one billion global monthly unique views, ranks as a top-tier advertising business that fundamentally changes TV, the entertainment industry, and how brands spend their advertising budgets.  Here are ten predictions how YouTube will dominate the video ecosystem:

YouTube will exceed TV Networks in advertising revenue:  Jefferies LLC, a global investment-banking firm, predicted last year that YouTube would have $9.8B in revenue in 2017.  A projected 9% growth rate, far below 13.9% that eMarketer projects for digital video in 2018, will have YouTube exceed $13B by 2020.  For context, CBS TV Network, the largest TV network in advertising revenue, is estimated to be $8B in ad revenue in 2015.

One channel will have at least 150M+ subscribers:  Felix Arvid Ulf Kjellberg has the largest YouTube channel, PewDiePie, with 39M subscribers.  It seems plausible that PewDiePie could have 200M subscribers by 2020.    He added nearly 800K subscribers in July alone.  By comparison, prestigious Fortune magazine has accrued slightly more than 800,000 subscribers in 86 years.  In five years, when Felix makes a video more people will watch it then than the largest U.S. Cable TV program.

YouTube channels will make $50M in annual income:  Imagine a video gamer channel that has a very large following and produces a video every day.  If the channel can average 15M views per video then the channel can earn $75K just for the pre-roll ad for one video.  A channel can also make significant income from banner ads and sponsorships.  Business Insider ranked the top 20 YouTube earners in March 2014.  At the time Evan, 8 years old and the face of EvanTubeHD, ranked twentieth and was estimated to earn potentially as much as $1.3M a year.  Since that report 16 months ago EvanTubeHD’s subscriber count has doubled.  PewDiePie was projected to make as much as $8.5M.  

Sports leagues content will be on YouTube:  At least one major sports league will air out-of-town games on YouTube and make significant advertising revenue.  A prospect could be the NBA or MLB.  Leagues can build their audience by providing content to their consumers who want to be able to choose the game they watch instead of what their TV dictates.  The combination of sports league rights fees going ever higher coupled with more cable cord-cutting and less males ages 18 to 34 watching TV seems unsustainable for networks and leagues.  That could lead to YouTube being a significant player in sports leagues’ future.  

NFL games:  YouTube will win at least one NFL game per week.  My prediction is Google bids on Monday Night Football after ESPN can no longer justify paying $1.9B per year, which is considerably more than every other NFL TV partner and getting far less viewers in return (which oversimplifies the contract but is telling nonetheless).  Of course the Monday Night Football agreement goes through 2021 so this prediction may have a longer wait.

Movie Studios:  A major movie studio will release a top movie on YouTube just 4 weeks after it releases in theaters and sell to consumers for $9.99.

Contextual Targeting:  YouTube solves contextually advertising so children receive appropriate targeted advertisements and their parents receive adult targeted ads.  This has been a challenge for the industry and is a great opportunity for YouTube, brands, and consumers.

ESPN The YouTube Channel:  ESPN, trying to adjust to the shifting viewership of males ages 12 to 34, will launch a YouTube Channel with 24 hours, 7 days a week real-time sports news with commercials.  Comparable sports and news channels will also develop channels.  

Teens Most Popular Celebrities:  An annual study by Variety, the entertainment industry’s 360 data solution, ranks teenagers’ top popular celebrities across YouTube and Hollywood.  This year the Variety survey ranked eight of the top ten most popular stars for teens as YouTube personalities.  Oscar-winning Taylor Swift, one of the best selling artists of all-time, who has sold 40 million albums and 130 million single downloads ranks only #9, behind KSI (#1), VanossGaming (#3) and Smosh (#5).  Within one year all ten will be YouTube personalities.  This is the new world order.  

Live Streaming Lives:  There will be hundreds of channels that stream live 24 hours-7 days a week their own lives.  Recall the 1998 movie The Truman Show except the difference is people are electing to do this.  Imagine a completely unvarnished look into somebody’s life.  It will be seen in 360-degree virtual reality so that you see that personality and also see what they see.  

YouTube will be the center of the video universe, but unlike TV it is global, mobile, and simultaneously niche.  There will be something for every consumer and nearly every consumer will be watching.