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Starz's 2-Year Results Defy Warnings of "Cord-Shaving"
If you're looking for evidence that the pay-TV industry is imperiled by the rise of over-the-top services that are going to cause subscribers to cut the cord, a good early indicator of such behavior would be whether "cord-shaving," i.e. the reduction of services like premium channels, additional outlets and DVR services, is happening already. But a look at the premium channels Starz and Encore - whose content is fully available for streaming on Netflix - suggests no evidence of cord-shaving is yet occurring.
As the graph below shows, since October, 2008, when Starz announced that Netflix had signed a distribution deal for "Starz Play," total U.S. subscribers to the Starz and Encore channels have actually increased slightly from 49 million to 49.4 million. During this time period there's been relatively little fluctuation, with only a temporary dip in the 2nd half of last year that was probably more related to the channels being temporarily out of their Comcast deal, and therefore losing some of their promotional backing. Further, for the first 9 months of 2010, Starz's revenue was $929 million and cash flow was $305 million, up from the same period in 2008, when revenue was $826 million and cash flow was $220 million.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable Networks
Topics: Disney, Encore, HBO, Netflix, Sony, Starz
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Net Neutrality: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?
Though the FCC passed new net neutrality rules yesterday, the fight is far from over. Republicans immediately vowed to block the rules when they take over the House in January, and threats of industry lawsuits flew. Even liberal supporters of net neutrality were unhappy that the rules didn't go far enough. While the rules are here today, whether they will be tomorrow is very much an open question.
While everyone agrees that a well-functioning Internet is core to American society and the economy, net neutrality's challenge from the start has been between those who believe in pre-emptive regulations because big ISPs can't be trusted, vs. those that don't see a sustained pattern of ISP misbehavior warranting proactive FCC involvement.
Categories: Broadband ISPs, Regulation
Topics: FCC, Net Neutrality
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Netflix CEO Hastings Defends Company's Lofty Stock Price in 2,000 Word Post
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings isn't being shy about his company's soaring valuation, posting a 2,000 word defense on the Seeking Alpha blog. The relatively unusual move comes in response to an earlier post by investor
Whitney Tilson explaining why the stock is due for a decline in 2011. The two men are friends and joint backers of charter schools. Hastings says somewhat tongue in cheek up front that his "desire is to increase (Tilson's) odds of making money next year so he can donate even more to the charter public schools that we both think are important to our country's future."
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: Netflix
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Hulu Pulls IPO Due to Lack of Long-Term Content Rights
The WSJ is reporting that Hulu has pulled its widely-rumored plan for an initial public offering next year due to lack of long-term rights to distribute its three broadcast TV network owners' content. The WSJ says the company may
look at other options to raise capital. Hulu's exclusive short-term distribution deals with owners ABC, FOX and NBC are the company's primary asset, and no doubt banks and other would-be investors closely scrutinized whether the rights would be extended.
As I wrote last April, from a content rights perspective, Hulu is getting squeezed from all sides. Pay-TV providers are ramping up their TV Everywhere rollouts and are trying to lock down online distribution rights themselves, sometimes as part of retransmission consent deals. The NBC rights in particular are subject to extra uncertainty longer-term as Comcast takes over the network. As the biggest subscription TV provider, which is rolling out its own online capabilities, Comcast has little incentive to support an online competitor.
Categories: Aggregators, Broadcasters, Deals & Financings
Topics: ABC, Comcast, FOX, Hulu, NBC, Netflix
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Sezmi Drops "Select Plus" Tier, Shifts Away From Digital Broadcast Delivery
Sezmi, the next-generation subscription TV provider, is discontinuing as of December 28th its "Select Plus" $19.95/mo tier of service which launched in the LA market last February, with distribution from Best Buy. Going forward, Sezmi will focus its U.S. efforts on enhancing its lower-end, $4.95/mo
"Select" tier. In addition, the company has decided to shift away from licensing digital spectrum from local broadcast stations for content delivery, and instead will use an all-broadband delivery model. Dave Allred, Sezmi's Chief Marketing Officer walked me through the changes.
Dave explained that Sezmi received positive feedback from its Select Plus subscribers in LA, but that the big challenge to rolling it out aggressively was securing the local broadcast bandwidth. Sezmi had actually signed broadcast deals to expand to 4-5 key markets, but the deals were expensive, and with the FCC's efforts to reclaim unused broadcast spectrum, Dave said negotiations had slowed as broadcasters became more cautious. Though Sezmi has always touted the multi-network delivery model, it needed to make a decision whether to stay the course, and follow a slow, market-by-market rollout, or just shift to broadband-only, which it did.
Categories: Aggregators
Topics: SezMi
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5 Items of Interest for the Week of Dec. 12th
Happy Friday. Once again I'm pleased to offer VideoNuze's end-of-week feature analyzing 5-6 interesting online/mobile video industry news items from the week that we didn't have a chance to cover previously. This week I'm changing the format a little bit, creating an individual post for each item. I'm doing this in response to reader interest in being able to share individual items (not the whole group) more easily. Let me know what you think of the new format. Here they are:
1. Potential YouTube-Next New Networks deal is a bit of a head-scratcher
2. Here's a great example of why TV Everywhere matters so much to the pay-TV industry
3. Hulu's Kilar: "Hulu Plus now a material portion" of revenues
4. Google not ready to announce fiber winning communities
5. Tiffany shows online video works for luxury retailers
Read them now or check them out this weekend!Categories: Aggregators, Broadband ISPs, Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Commerce, Deals & Financings, Indie Video, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: Google, Hulu Plus, Netflix, Next New Networks, Tiffany, YouTube
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Potential YouTube-Next New Networks Deal is a Bit of a Head-Scratcher
I'm still scratching my head a little over this week's report that YouTube may be looking to acquire independent video network/developer Next New Networks. An acquisition of Next New Networks would mean that YouTube would no longer be solely a platform for indie video, but a producer as well. So the first question is why, after so many assertions by Google executives that it is "not a media company" has it decided that in fact it now wants to be a media company? Does Google feel that indie content is underfunded and developing too slowly, hence the need to bring its massive resources to bear? Maybe so.
But data just this week from the company, disclosing its 2010 top videos viewed seems to suggest that indie creativity is bubbling along just fine. The top two videos were actually Next New productions, and the company blogged a must-read post about how it achieved this success. Maybe YouTube feels it can turbo-charge indie content, and this is strategic to help support its Google TV efforts since it's getting stiff-armed by major broadcasters. If the deal is done (and doesn't end up as another Groupon non-deal) it will be interesting to learn how Google/YouTube explains it.Categories: Aggregators, Deals & Financings, Indie Video
Topics: Google, Next New Networks, YouTube
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Here's A Great Example of Why TV Everywhere Matters So Much To the Pay-TV Industry
Want a really tangible example of why TV Everywhere is so critical to the pay-TV industry? Then have a look at this post from industry banker Ken Sonenclar, who recounts his personal experience of trying to find an online version of the season finale of Showtime's "Dexter" on an evening when bad weather knocked out his satellite dish. Frustrated that he couldn't find the episode available anywhere, he ultimately stumbled upon a pirate site and happily watched the episode, albeit at somewhat lower quality.
Experiences like these no doubt play out daily as pay-TV subscribers seek convenient, on-demand access to their favorite programs. The TV Everywhere model works because it still requires a valid paid subscription, so the current monetization model is unharmed. But the incremental value to viewers is substantial. With services like Netflix and Hulu Plus increasingly available on every conceivable online and mobile device, consumers' expectations are being raised. If the pay-TV industry (both operators and networks) can't meet or exceed the experiences that a sub $10/mo service can deliver, then they shouldn't be surprised when subscribers begin dropping their expensive pay-TV services.Categories: Cable Networks, Cable TV Operators, Satellite, Telcos
Topics: TV Everywhere
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