VideoNuze Posts

  • Broadband Video Isn't Competition for Cable Says My CTAM Panel

    Today I moderated a spirited discussion panel at CTAM NY’s annual Blue Ribbon Breakfast at Gotham Hall in NYC. The title was "Over the Top TV....Can Broadband Video Be Cable's Newest Opportunity?" We had an amazing group of panelists (click here to see list and listen to podcast) and with 450+ attendees a packed house as well.

    A key question we dug into was whether and to what extent cable’s traditional (and highly successful) paid subscription model will be impaired by the rise of broadband video usage. Try as I did to see if any of the panelists believe that it will, none would admit to it. The reasons given included, "some form of a paid model will always exist but will never succumb entirely to a free, ad-supported model" to "cable networks won’t push broadband video distribution of their programs so hard as to upset the current model of receiving affiliate fees from cable operators", to "the low probability that inexpensive PC-to-TV bridge devices will proliferate any time soon" to "viewers have shown that they want a selection of channels to browse."

    While I think each of these answers is quite legitimate, my point of view is that we are in the early days of an fundamental transformation in the video (and indeed the media more generally) business that will eventually (though of course who knows when and to what eventual degree) see most, if not all programming get unbundled into a fully on-demand paradigm.

    I believe the ultimate answer to how cannibalistic broadband is toward cable ultimately turns on whether consumers believe it’s a "zero sum" game, meaning they choose between EITHER accessing programs via a VOD or DVR offering only available if they’ve bought into a monthly multi-channel video subscription (that’s to say the way the world works today) OR if they opt out of that subscription offering and INSTEAD choose to buy these programs a la carte, or receive them free, courtesy of a highly targeted ad model. The opt out option would of course be available through open broadband video distribution.

    All trends point to the latter ultimately prevailing. While cable operators are well-positioned to shift their models to exploit this behavior if they act aggressively, they are also vulnerable to it if they don’t. The most important driver of the "opt out" scenario is that for an increasingly larger portion of our society, their behavior and expectations are formed by the Internet. And the ‘net is a completely personalizable and on demand medium. Especially for most online media, it is also mainly free, or paid on a fully a la carte basis (e.g. iTunes). Users’ expectations are through the roof and only getting higher. As broadband proliferates they will bring these same expectations to their decision-making.

    Is it really realistic to believe that in 5 years when today’s MySpace/Facebook/YouTube/iTunes crazed 16 year old kid goes to set up his/her first apartment, s/he is going to embrace the notion of subscribing to a hundred channel package just so s/he can watch a handful of programs on demand? And of course, the ‘net’s behavior change isn’t confined to kids, it’s pervasive across all age groups.

    Cable operators have an outstanding opportunity to capitalize on these macro behavioral trends. But doing so will require cable operators to make a significant and risky departure from their traditional subscription-based business models. It’s a classic incumbent’s dilemma. It will be interesting to see if they can do so.

     
  • CTAM NY Blue Ribbon Breakfast is On Tap

    I'm really looking forward to moderating the CTAM NY chapter's annual Blue Ribbon Breakfast on Wednesday morning at Gotham Hall. The session is entitled, Over the Top TV....Can Broadband Video Be Cable's Newest Opportunity?"

    We have a world-class group of panelists:

    • Bruce Campbell, President, Digital Media and Business Development, Discovery Communications
    • Dallas Clement, Senior Vice President, Strategy & Development, Cox Communications
    • David Eun, Vice President, Content Partnerships, Google
    • Herb Scannell, CEO & Co-Founder, Next New Networks
    • Matt Strauss, Senior Vice President, New Media, Comcast

    The event has been sold out for 2 weeks and CTAM just figured out a way to shoehorn in another 25 people from the waitlist, bringing the overall attendance to 460+.

    It's going to be an amazing event. The cable industry – both operators and programmers – are right in the middle of the whole broadband video revolution. Their actions will have a big impact on the course and pace of the industry's future.

    CTAM is recording the event to podcast it, and I'll be sharing my observations in this space as well.

     
  • Albrecht Should Propel IMG Media

    IMG announced today that former HBO boss Chris Albrecht is joining IMG as head of its Global Media unit, suggesting that big things are in store for the company.

    I've had a fair amount of exposure to IMG over the past couple of years through Greg Fawcett, their VP Biz Dev. Greg and I met some time ago, and I've had the pleasure of having him on a couple of industry panels I've moderated.

    When I started learning more about IMG I realized it is really the hidden jewel of the media business. The company has been steadily transforming itself from a talent firm to a full-fledged multi-platform video production powerhouse under the Forstmann ownership.

    They produce over 10,000 hours of programming annually across every major category. They have an enormous library of video assets waiting to be monetized. And they have relationships with everyone in the sports, media, advertising and entertainment industries, all of which will only be enhanced under Albrecht.

    The key to their future success will be leveraging all this great content across broadband and mobile platforms. Ironically, despite HBO's prowess, these were weak spots for the company. Watching all the cable nets closely over the last several years, HBO's been a noticeable laggard, particularly compared to its premium channel brethren, Starz and Showtime. For Albrecht to fully realize IMG's potential, he'll need far more emphasis on these areas than was shown at HBO. I'm betting we'll see it.
     
  • More Big Hollywood Talent Piles Into Broadband Video

     
    Today's splashy NY Times piece profiling Edward Zwick and Marshall Herskovitz's new series, QuarterLife, with MySpace again highlights how big name talent continues to embrace broadband video as a key focus of their activities.

    This list continues to grow. Here are some of the names that are on it, and their activities:

    • Michael Eisner, Vuguru, Prom Queen
    • Stephen Bochco, MetaCafe
    • Ben Silverman, Reveille
    • William Morris/Narrowstep
    • Spike Lee and Babelgum's online film festival
    • Herb Scannell, Next New Networks
    • Albie Hecht, WorldWide Biggies

    What do all these big names see? In 2 words: colossal opportunity. Broadband is a wide open playing field. They all understand that a classic paradigm shift is happening in the video industry and are rushing to understand the medium and its new rules. How to engage audiences? How to monetize most effectively? How to optimize the formats? How to retain creative control?

    This activity is only going to accelerate. As early successes get more publicity and the business models crystallize expect even more big Hollywood talent to jump on the broadband video bandwagon.
     
  • Josh Freeman Moves from AOL to Discovery

    File this one under "AOL's loss is Discovery's gain." Today Discovery announced that Josh Freeman, who had been an SVP of AOL Video, has joined Discovery as its Executive Vice President, Digital Media.

    Josh and I did business together when I was consulting for TotalVid and we signed a distribution/promotion deal with AOL Video. Josh is among the smartest, most experienced people in the broadband video space and will no doubt have a huge impact on Discovery's growth in the area.

    From the release:

    "As Discovery's top digital media strategist, Freeman will be responsible for growing Discovery brands across digital platforms globally. Charged with seeking out new technology and strategic alliances, and developing new business models and markets, he is expected to help Discovery expand its footprint through the role and visibility of its world-class portfolio of brands online, on mobile and through other digital platforms."

    At Discovery Josh will report to Bruce Campbell, President, Digital Media and Business Development. Coincidentally, Bruce, who's also relatively new to Discovery, will be on my CTAM NY Blue Ribbon Breakfast panel in 2 weeks, joining other panelists Dallas Clement (Cox), David Eun (Google), Herb Scannell (Next New Networks) and Matt Strauss (Comcast). The session promises to be a blockbuster and is already fully sold out.

     
  • ScanScout Update and New TW Investment

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    On Friday I had a chance to meet with and get an update from Waikit Lau, COO/President and Co-Founder of ScanScout. They had given me a heads up earlier in the week about this morning's announcement of a strategic investment by Time Warner and new board member appointments, so I wanted to get a closer look.

    ScanScout is among a group of companies that are trying to improve monetization of broadband video by using analysis techniques (e.g. audio, visual and metadata) to deliver highly contextual ads that go beyond conventional pre-roll ads. This group includes, to one extent or another, Digitalsmiths, Yume, Adap.tv, blinkx and Nexidia. ScanScout's format of choice is the "overlay", subject of much recent rabble following YouTube's decision to jump on this format's bandwagon.

    Waikit explained that ScanScout sees its secret sauce in "extracting signals" (or descriptive data) from video streams, identifying semantics and correlations of like data and enabling "brand protection."

    ScanScout first analyzes video content to characterize it so that scenes can become valuable in a way that today's keywords are. This is done though speech recognition, visual analysis and meta-data collection. Next, ScanScout technology is crawling the web each day to find all nouns and pronouns to determine how they relate to one another. By understanding these correlations and the underlying semantics, ScanScout's system becomes smarter, in turn enabling its advertisers to optimize their targeting. Finally, ScanScout's "brand protection" allows advertisers to de-select certain kinds of content and keywords so that their ads don't run in those offending videos.

    The company is focusing on a network business model, so it's trying to sign up as many valuable publishers as possible to build its inventory, while also enticing advertisers and agencies to allocate some budget to its platform. Certainly having Time Warner in its corner will help the company gain access to the trove of TW content. However the company isn't focusing solely on big branded content. Waikit favors "torso" video (in Long Tail-speak, content between the head and UGC), that is monetization-challenged. And the company is focusing now on the entertainment vertical and on shorter form content, which Waikit sees as ideal for the overlay format.

    It's a pretty cool model, but still needs time to be fully proven. Big brands love the CPMs they're getting for pre-rolls, so overlays are going to be less appealing for now. And for ScanScout and all its competitors, the proof of their wizzy technology will be tangibly improved targeting leading to higher user click-throughs and engagement. It's still too early to know whether the science leads to actual results. But with broadband content providers large and small scrambling for improved monetization, ScanScout and the others are playing in very fertile ground.

     
  • Boston Globe and Boston.com Show Why Broadband Gives Newspapers New Lease on Life

    Recently the Boston Globe, my local newspaper, ran a 9,000 word, 2 part cover story in its Sunday magazine about a successful family physician who concludes at age 52 that he would be happier as a woman. Regardless of your personal views or politics, it has to be one of the most poignant and riveting pieces of journalism about transsexuals.

    But what makes the piece truly winning is that the Globe went the extra mile by shooting 2 short videos (4-5 minutes each) to accompany each part of the story and featured them prominently online, just below the titles. The videos are shot in documentary style and while likely low cost to produce, they more than hit the mark.

    What these packages demonstrate is how a traditional newspaper is able to offer a totally different (and I would argue, immeasurably more engaging) user experience with some simple video. This story in particular screams out for more than just words on a page, because it deals with a subject both foreign and somewhat mysterious to many readers. For example, what does the doctor look and sound like after the operations described in the article? Do her/his office colleagues sound convincing when they say they supported his sex change decision? Does s/he seem happy now, after all the traumas her/his family has been through?

    These are the kinds of emotional subtleties that video is unrivaled at delivering. The Globe gets huge kudos for treating this story in a manner that marks a distinct break from traditional newspaper journalism. And it is yet another example of how newspapers shouldn't be counted out as dinosaurs yet in the Internet age. Broadband is offering them a whole new lease on life as trusted news and information providers. Shame on them if they don't seize the opportunity.

     
  • Likely YouTube Spoofs Should Power New Playtex Bra Campaign to Success

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    I think Playtex is going to score big time with its humorous new ad campaign entitled "Girl Talk."

    The essence of the campaign is summed up below:

    "We uncovered that women of all shapes and sizes talk about their bras and breasts in funny, witty and candid ways," said Vicki Seawright, marketing director for Playtex intimate apparel, which is part of Winston-Salem-based Hanesbrands Inc.

    The ads will showcase women having funny, honest chats about their breasts, including using nicknames for their breasts intended only for the privacy of their own conversations. (You now see the voyeuristic aspect of the campaign)

    Playtex intends to use conventional TV and magazine buys, but supplement or "support" as the company said, with YouTube video and American Greetings e-cards.

    Here's my bet: this campaign is going to launch some uproariously funny video spoofs on YouTube. And you know what: Playtex is going to love them all. In the age of viral video-enhanced brand marketing campaigns, Playtex is taking a smart approach. By having fun with their marketing and opening the door for others to do so as well, they dramatically enhance the chances of breaking this campaign out of the clutter and getting big time buzz. In short, this campaign seems well-positioned to be an advertising triumph. Let's see.