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Analysis for 'HBO'
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VideoNuze Podcast #177 - Debating Netflix's Growth Prospects
I'm pleased to present the 177th edition of the VideoNuze podcast with my weekly partner Colin Dixon of nScreenMedia. Earlier this week, Netflix reported solid results for Q1 '13, adding a total of about 3 million new subscribers, 2 million in the U.S. and a million internationally. Netflix projects it can ultimately obtain 60-90 million U.S. subscribers, which would be 2-3 times as many as HBO, the biggest "premium TV" network.
As I wrote earlier this week, if that were to occur - and it's still a big if - it would mean Netflix would have to get a lot of middle and lower income American homes to layer on another $8/mo or more to their already substantial pay-TV bills, OR there would have to be material cord-cutting that essentially frees up household budget for SVOD subscriptions. Colin suggests a third way, which would be "cord-shaving" - subscribers cutting back on existing pay-TV services like sports networks or premium channels to make room for Netflix in their budgets.
That of course leads to the question of what HBO might do as it observes Netflix's continued growth. It's hard to see HBO standing still, yet, for reasons HBO has discussed in the past, unbundling itself from pay-TV would be a huge step for the company. Last but not least, Amazon - which become Netflix's biggest U.S. SVOD competitor - is rumored to have a set-top box introduction planned, which could also shift the competitive balance in the U.S. Bottom line, there are a lot of twists and turns yet to occur in SVOD in the U.S.
Listen in to learn more!
Click here to listen to the podcast (19 minutes, 6 seconds)Click here for previous podcasts
Click here to add the podcast feed to your RSS reader.
The VideoNuze podcast is also available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Aggregators, Podcasts
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VideoNuze-TDG Report Podcast #136 - TakeMyMoneyHBO.com; E3 Reactions; TV is Ossified
I'm pleased to be joined once again by Colin Dixon, senior partner at The Diffusion Group, for the 136th edition of the VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast (our podcast's new co-branded name, going forward).
This week we first discuss a fascinating new web site, TakeMyMoneyHBO.com that invites visitors to submit how much they'd pay for a standalone HBO GO service. It's the latest in the larger dynamics around HBO going direct-to-consumer, rather than solely via pay-TV operators. In my video interview with HBO's co-president Eric Kessler 6 months ago, he explained the rationale for HBO sticking to its roots with HBO GO, which Ryan Lawler at TechCrunch enumerated this week. While Colin and I understand the reasoning, we contend that changing consumer expectations and a strong desire for viewing flexibility will inevitably pressure HBO - and others - to re-think traditional approaches. This is a topic I explored at length over a year ago.
Then Colin offers his reactions to E3 and what the major gaming console providers announced with streaming video apps this week. Last I discuss my video interview with top Wall Street analyst Craig Moffett that I posted yesterday, in which Craig states that the TV industry is so "ossified" that re-invention can only come from outsiders.
Click here to listen to the podcast (22 minutes, 46 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze-TDG Report podcast is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Cable Networks, Devices, Podcasts, TV Everywhere
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Re-posting My Video Interview With HBO Co-President Eric Kessler as "Game of Thrones" Piracy Soars
There's lots of online buzz right now about an apparently massive amount of online piracy for HBO's hit show "Game of Thrones." To better understand HBO's online strategy with its HBO GO app, I recommend watching the interview I did with co-president Eric Kessler at last November's VideoSchmooze event, which I've re-posted below. This interview is the primary source for a lot of the back-and-forth going on about the GOT piracy issue and what's behind it.
In the interview Eric is very clear in explaining why HBO is focused on maintaining exclusive distribution through pay-TV providers, which means the HBO GO app is only available to HBO/pay-TV subscribers. Coincidentally, this week's podcast touches on how restrictive access to popular programming helps breed piracy. In this case HBO has rabid GOT fans, but many aren't cable subscribers as Forbes points out, and therefore can't subscribe to HBO. I explained this conundrum back in March, 2011 in "Could HBO be the Next BLOCKBUSTER."
By limiting its distribution, HBO is adhering to a traditional model that still works reasonably well and is very rationale, yet also leaves lots of opportunity on the table and encourages illegal behavior. It's yet another one of the many dilemmas arising as analog era business models collide with digital era distribution realities.Categories: Cable Networks, Devices
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HBO Offers Free Online Access to Two New Shows to Non-Subscribers
HBO announced yesterday that it will offer online access to premiere episodes of its two newest shows, "Girls" and "Veep" to non-subscribers on HBO.com, YouTube, Dailymotion, TV.com, and via distributors' free VOD platforms. "Veep" will also be offered as a free download on iTunes. Access will begin the day after the shows launch on HBO and run for a month. The initiative is savvy on a number of different levels, and continues to show how HBO is tapping new online video opportunities while cautiously adhering to its traditional distribution model.
Categories: Cable Networks
Topics: HBO
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Verizon Needs to Bring More than a Knife to the OTT Gunfight
Late yesterday Reuters reported that Verizon is looking at launching an online-only subscription service for streaming movies and TV shows outside its geographical footprint. While
such a move initially seems disruptive to incumbents like Netflix and others, the folks at Verizon better remember the old adage about not bringing a knife to a gunfight; if they really want to compete, significant investments in content and promotions are going to be required. Even then, it's not yet clear to me how Verizon succeeds in this highly competitive space.
Categories: Aggregators, Telcos
Topics: Amazon, CBS, EPIX, HBO, Netflix, Starz, Time Warner, UltraViolet, Verizon, VUDU, YouTube
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Video Interview: HBO Co-President Eric Kessler at VideoSchmooze
A highlight of last week's VideoSchmooze:NYC Online Video Leadership Forum was the leadoff fireside interview I did with Eric Kessler, HBO's co-president. Our conversation focused on HBO GO, the streaming app that HBO officially launched on May 1st, which has received approximately 5 million downloads to date.
In the interview, Eric offers a comprehensive explanation of how HBO's business model works and the value-added role that HBO GO plays in extending subscribers' life-cycle. He provides a slew of new data points on HBO usage by content type and device, as well as how it's changing subscribers' perceptions of HBO. Eric also notes that the most critical decision HBO made was to include virtually all of its programs' episodes in HBO GO, although the move undermined its lucrative home video/DVD business for a segment of buyers.
Categories: Cable Networks, Events, People
Topics: HBO, VideoSchmooze
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HBO GO: 98 Million Streams to Date and Staying Exclusive
In an interview with me at yesterday's VideoSchmooze, HBO co-president Eric Kessler said that HBO GO has delivered 98 million video streams to date. HBO GO is offered at no extra cost to existing HBO subscribers as long as their pay-TV provider and HBO have agreed to make the service available. Eric also noted that HBO intends for HBO GO to remain the sole streaming outlet for its programs as it believes this type of exclusivity is a key differentiator vs. aggregators like Netflix, Amazon and others, most of whose content is non-exclusive. Clearly this is what HBO GO users want: over 70% of viewership has been for HBO's original programs.
Categories: Cable Networks
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DreamWorks Gives Netflix A Much-Needed Lift, But Not Until 2013
DreamWorks Animation's new output deal with Netflix gives the beleaguered streaming-only provider a much-needed lift, but unfortunately not until
DreamWorks' 2013 movies are released. Under the deal, Netflix may pay up to $30 million per movie, an increase from the $20 million that HBO is believed to have been paying DreamWorks. The press release also notes that some of DreamWorks' catalog movies such as "Kung Fu Panda," "Madagascar 2," "Chicken Run" and "Antz" will also be included over time. The DreamWorks deal comes on the heels of last week's news that Netflix licensed library programs from Discovery Communications.
Categories: Aggregators, Studios
Topics: DreamWorks Animation, HBO, Netflix
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HBO GO Is Terrific; The Question is How Aggressively Will It Be Deployed Longer-Term?
I've been testing HBO GO for the last couple of weeks and my reaction is overwhelmingly positive. The service is easy to navigate and incredibly responsive. Importantly, the video quality (particularly in the iPad app) is top-notch - you'll quickly forget the video is actually being delivered over the Internet and a WiFi network). And with over 1,600 pieces of content, there's no shortage of what to watch. Though I'm not an HBO subscriber, I've watched a number of HBO programs on DVD over the years (e.g. Entourage, The Wire, The Sopranos) and so the ability to get both past seasons, as well as current season episodes, in one space is highly convenient.
Obviously I'm not alone in my reactions as there have been over 3 million downloads of HBO GO just since its May 2 official release. Considering HBO has 28 million US subscribers, that's an impressive penetration level (even more so because HBO doesn't yet have agreements for HBO GO with all pay-TV providers, so some HBO subscribers can't yet access the service).
For now HBO has positioned HBO GO as a value add for existing subscribers. That's a fine place to start, but as the video landscape becomes ever more competitive, it's hard to see how HBO will be content to deploy such as strong asset mainly in a defensive manner, and not be tempted to start using it more aggressively. If and when that happens, that would be a major change in the pay-TV model. Though I questioned HBO's future in "Could HBO Be the Next BLOCKBUSTER?" HBO GO creates scenarios for how the company thrive in the online video era.
Categories: Cable Networks, Devices
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@Cable Show: HBO GO Has 2.6 Million+ Downloads, Watch ESPN Has 2 Million+ Downloads
At least two major cable networks, HBO and ESPN, are getting strong traction with their mobile apps not long after launching them. HBO GO, which was unveiled in early May, has already gained over 2.6 million downloads, while Watch ESPN has generated over 2 million downloads since launching in early April. The data was released by Alison Moore, HBO's SVP, Digital Platforms, and by David Preschlack, ESPN's EVP of Affiliate Sales and Marketing in a TV Everywhere session I hosted this afternoon at the Cable Show in Chicago.
Both Alison and David stressed their twin goals of delivering anytime/anywhere experiences to their viewers while also supporting the subscriber authentication, TV Everywhere goals of their main pay-TV distributors. In fact TV Everywhere was, well, everywhere at this year's Cable show, dominating general sessions and informal discussions of the industry's future. Mostly there's broad consensus about how strategic untethering popular cable programming from the set-top box is, although many issues still remain unresolved. Chief among them are measurement, rights clearances and business relationship details.
Categories: Cable Networks, Devices
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HBO GO Launches on iOS and Android Devices: A Necessary But Insufficient Step
Today marks the "official" launch of HBO GO - the premium cable network's authenticated TV Everywhere service - on mobile devices running iOS (iPad, iPhone, iPod) and the Android OS, although it has been technically available since late last week in the iTunes App Store and Android Market. HBO signaled May 2nd as the date of availability in a teaser video posted last month on YouTube, and I'm guessing a press release will be forthcoming.
With the iOS/Android rollout, HBO has taken a necessary, but insufficient step toward improving its standing in a world that has grown dramatically more competitive in a very short time. HBO GO, which is only available to HBO subscribers, and even then, only to those whose pay-TV operator has a deal to authenticate HBO GO, is narrowly focused on delivering more value to those who have already chosen to subscribe to HBO. As HBO co-president Eric Kessler told the NY Times in February, "It's about enhancing the satisfaction and continuing the life cycle of the subscriber."
Categories: Cable Networks, Devices
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1. Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes Flip-Flops, Now Admires Netflix
Certainly top on this week's unexpected list was Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes' newfound affection for Netflix, expressed in an interview with Charlie Rose at the Tribeca Film Festival (see below video, starting at the 4:40 point). Until now Bewkes has been withering in his derision for Netflix, famously comparing them to the Albanian army, and all but saying HBO would only offer its programs for streaming on Netflix when hell froze over.
But this week Bewkes totally flip-flopped, saying things like he looks at Netflix with a certain sense of "fondness," "Welcome brother" to the subscription business, "You've gotta admire them," "They've done a bold thing, a good thing in many ways," "They're offering a subscription service that is very valid and effective" and "They've got a lot of interesting stuff on there mostly that's available in other places but that's no criticism."
Categories: Aggregators, Cable Networks
Topics: HBO, Netflix, Time Warner
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And Now, Back to Our Regularly Scheduled Programming
Thanks for all the comments, emails, tweets, calls and other feedback on my little April Fool's Day "exclusive," that Netflix planned to acquire HBO, dissolve its channels and add HBO's programs to its iPad app. As with my prior April Fool's Day posts, it was a lot of fun to write, and even more fun to receive the range of reactions (yes, if you still thought it was true by the end, you were not alone!)
As with all April Fool's Day attempts that seem to work, the key is making the joke just believable enough to elicit the tension of "Wow!" vs. "No Way!" Of course April Fool's Day has become open season on the Internet, meaning that for many, the new standing policy on April 1st is to not believe ANYTHING they read.
While that raises the bar for me, the good news is that in the online video and pay-TV worlds, things have gotten so tumultuous that what was unthinkable yesterday somehow becomes reality today. Thus quite a few people's reaction to today's "exclusive" was that it was not only plausible, but actually expected. The idea that Netflix could acquire HBO still feels like an awfully big stretch to me, but who knows - someday it could happen.
Regardless, on Monday, VideoNuze will be back to its serious-minded coverage of the industry. Enjoy the weekend!
Categories: Miscellaneous
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EXCLUSIVE: Netflix to Acquire HBO, Dissolve Channels Into Streaming Library for iPad Use Only
VideoNuze has learned that Netflix has struck a deal to acquire HBO from Time Warner and intends to dissolve HBO's linear cable channels, with its programs to be incorporated into Netflix's streaming library, available solely on the iPad. Terms of the deal are not yet known, but it is expected to be for stock only, with Time Warner becoming the biggest shareholder in Netflix. VideoNuze interviewed all the key participants late last night.
The deal is a stunning move for all parties, and reflects the fast-changing nature of the online video and pay-TV industries. First and foremost, the deal appears to be a stark reversal of opinion by Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes
who has consistently diminished Netflix's prospects. Bewkes commented, "My informal recent remarks, comparing Netflix's rise to the Albanian army's chances of taking over the world got me thinking afterwards, geez, is it possible that I've underestimated Albania's might, and therefore Netflix's potential? So I decided to study up on my history, and it turns out that back in 1378, Albania actually conquered almost three-quarters of the world's population. That was an eye-opener and really made me second-guess myself."
Categories: Cable Networks, Deals & Financings
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #93 - Mar. 25, 2011
I'm pleased to present the 93rd edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for March 25, 2011.
In this week's podcast, Daisy Whitney and I discuss my post from earlier this week, "Could HBO be the Next BLOCKBUSTER." In it I provide a perspective on the challenges that HBO faces adapting to the new competitive landscape. The post has received wide distribution this week including being featured on the home page of the WSJ's AllThingsD technology web site and elsewhere.
For those further interested in the topic, I fleshed out some of the issues in a follow-on post, "Showtime Circles the Wagons, But to What End?" in which I discussed Showtime's decision to pull streaming rights to certain shows from Netflix. This week Starz also delayed the release windows of some of its shows as well. Quite a busy week for premium cable networks.
Click here to listen to the podcast (15 minutes, 42 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Cable Networks, Podcasts
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Showtime Circles Its Wagons, But to What End?
Showtime's new decision to re-negotiate its deal with Netflix, excluding streaming rights to early seasons of current hit shows "Dexter" and "Californication," is a clear attempt by the company to circle its wagons against Netflix's newfound strength. The move effectively short-circuits Showtime's existing efforts to work with Netflix as a key promotional partner. By giving Netflix streaming rights to older episodes, the goal has been to expose a portion of its subscribers to Showtime programs, which would in turn help drive new Showtime subscriptions. (Note: Coincidentally, I happened to have just watched the entire first season of Dexter on Netflix, though I haven't chosen to subscribe to Showtime. More on that in a subsequent post).
With its decision, Showtime has doubled down on its relationship with its pay-TV partners. Maybe I'm missing something important, but from my perspective, the new decision seems grossly out of step with current market realities and it will only lead Showtime toward an even more uncertain future.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable Networks
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Could HBO be the Next BLOCKBUSTER?
Last week, amid rumors that Netflix was planning to bid for the new "House of Cards" TV series, directed by David Fincher (a deal finally confirmed late Friday afternoon), there was no shortage of media coverage asking, "Could
Netflix be the next HBO?" As interesting a question as that one is, here's one that's even more intriguing, and provocative: "Could HBO be the next BLOCKBUSTER?" At first blush, the comparison might seem ridiculous, and admittedly there are numerous differences between the two. But there are some troubling similarities which should be causing the HBO executive team to now be on high alert.
Categories: Aggregators, Cable Networks, Technology
Topics: HBO, Netflix, Time Warner
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Netflix Lays Down Its Bets on "House of Cards"
Netflix served notice of its official arrival on the Hollywood scene this afternoon, announcing a bold deal for first-run rights to the new David Fincher directed TV series, "House of Cards," starring Kevin Spacey. Whereas the company has built a base of 20 million plus subscribers and a streaming franchise largely on catalog movies and TV series, the first-run deal signals that the company will not rest on its successful content acquisition strategy.
In my analysis of the rumored deal (as it stood just a couple days ago), I pointed to three ways that a first-run deal for "House of Cards" contrasted with Netflix's traditional approach. Having discussed the deal with a Netflix spokesman this afternoon, and having read other interviews and analysis, this afternoon, following are updates on those three items:
Categories: Aggregators
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VideoNuze Report Podcast #92 - Mar. 18, 2011
I'm pleased to present the 92nd edition of the VideoNuze Report podcast, for March 18, 2011.
In this week's podcast, Daisy Whitney and I discuss Netflix's rumored $100 million deal for first-run rights to "House of Cards," a new TV series directed by David Fincher and starring Kevin Spacey. As I wrote earlier this week, the deal would be a very significant shift in strategy for Netflix, and Daisy and I get into some of the details.
On a related note, yesterday I posted the audio recording of an interview I did with Netflix's chief content officer Ted Sarandos at the NATPE conference in January. Ted didn't allude to any first-run deals in that interview, but he did talk about his interest in bidding against HBO for the rights to Warner Bros. films when their deal was up for renewal among other topics.
Click here to listen to the podcast (13 minutes, 12 seconds)
Click here for previous podcasts
The VideoNuze Report is available in iTunes...subscribe today!Categories: Aggregators, Podcasts
Topics: HBO, Netflix, Podcast, Warner Bros.
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Audio Interview With Netflix's Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos
I'm pleased to provide an audio recording of an on-stage one-on-one interview I did with Netflix's chief content officer Ted Sarandos, at the NATPE Market conference on January 25th. I've been meaning to post this for a while, but experienced a few technical issues in getting it done. The interview is particularly timely given news this week that Netflix may be looking to distribute its first original TV series, "House of Cards," directed by David Fincher and starring Kevin Spacey.
In this wide-ranging interview, Ted and I discuss topics such as Netflix's content acquisition strategy, how it decides how much to spend on licensing, the critical role that data plays in informing Netflix's decision-making, the future of the DVD business and lots more. Of note, this is the interview in which Ted said that Netflix would bid against HBO for Warner Bros. films when those parties' distribution deal comes up for renewal in a couple of years and that Netflix had the resources to fully compete. That declaration was a departure from Netflix's traditional public posture about working closely with premium cable networks rather than disrupting them, and set off a raft of media coverage.
Categories: Aggregators, People
Topics: HBO, Netflix, Warner Bros.
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